Reality

"The next step will be, once they've tested it with several flights, they will bring down some of their fighter air power - SU-27s and SU-33's - and they will station them there permanently. That's what they're likely to do."

Last year amid China’s ongoing financial crisis, the government there tightened some forms of capital controls (curiously while loosening others). For any Chinese citizen with savings right now, it’s pretty obvious what’s happening. And they want to get their money out of the country. Bitcoin has been a popular alternative in China because people can easily cross borders with vast sums of money encrypted inside their mobile phones. But there’s a new tactic that Chinese are using now: domains.

Because the sectarian divide is set to become the key geopolitical issue in the weeks and months ahead, we thought it an opportune time to present the following map from Goldman which does a nice job of delineating the Sunni-Shiite split in the Mid-East.

For Americans between the ages of 20 and 24, the share of those sidelined over the past decade because they were in school increased, unsurprisingly, during the decade that included the Great Recession. What's more unusual is that the share of 20- to 24-year-olds who say they're retired doubled from 2004 to 2014.

Because our macroeconomic policies have false targets and actually incentivize short term strategies the Fed has directly led us off of an economic cliff. Now that the Fed has boxed itself out of any further action, the market is at the peril of a collapsing, breadwinner-job-less and debt ridden economy and so prepare yourself for the largest market ‘correction’ the world has ever faced.

With market valuations elevated, leverage high, economic weakness pervasive and profit margins deteriorating, investors should be watching the month of January carefully for clues. The weight of evidence suggests that despite ongoing “bullish calls” for the markets in the year ahead, this could be a year of disappointment. Pay attention, things are beginning to get interesting.

Just two weeks ago we warned of the looming "hyperinflation monster" in Africa with the continent appearing to be running out of dollars as some of Africa’s largest economies, including Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia and Mozambique, are restricting access to the greenback to protect dwindling reserves. Specifically we warned of Angola's already-soaring inflation hampering its ability to 'adjust' its currency towards its black market 'reality'. But that did not stop the central bank devaluing Kwanza by 15% over the weekend - the most since 2001 - to record lows as crude prices crush their economy and the flow of USDs.

There’s really one supreme element of this story that you must keep in view at all times: a society (i.e. an economy + a polity = a political economy) based on debt that will never be paid back is certain to crack up. Its institutions will stop functioning. Its business activities will seize up. Its leaders will be demoralized. Its denizens will act up and act out. Its wealth will evaporate. Given where we are in human history - the moment of techno-industrial over-reach - this crackup will not be easy to recover from. Things have gone too far in too many ways. The coming crackup will re-set the terms of civilized life to levels largely pre-techno-industrial. How far backward remains to be seen.

The amount of wasteful over investment on companies and ideas that should have never seen the light of a ledger book, let alone day, has been astounding. Without the intervention of the Fed’s QE (quantitative easing) free money enabling risk taking to supersede business fundamentals to fund and fuel speculative investments in ways that mirror the dot-com days: there would be no "Valley" as it currently stands. Unicorns, Non-GAAP, IPO’s, and more were the terms bandied or used to encapsulate what it was to be a "disrupter." Now with iconic Silicon Valley impresarios such as Theil or others being reported that to be looking for ways to cash out without an IPO, a nuclear winter pertaining to the world of Unicorns may be as '1' is said to represent: imminent.

Ever since it started making complicated bets against some leveraged ETFs, Miller’s Catalyst Macro Strategies Funds has since grown from $500,000 in assets at the start of the year to about $170 million. It achieved a more than 50 percent return this year, placing it far ahead of its competitors.

Wall Street forecasts for 2015 were largely wrong across the board. Now we have no problem with anybody being wrong, but wwhat we do take issue with is that Wall Street largely insisted on staying wrong even though the facts were changing in 2015. The only thing that really changed was the narrative, i.e. “well if earnings are down so what then markets go up because fund managers have to chase performance”. And hence you end up with overly optimistic forecasts not based on reality. But Wall Street is in the business of selling supply to the public. If there was one key trading lesson to draw from 2015 it is this: Ignore the noise and focus on the technicals.

A new propaganda video from al-Qaeda's Somali affiliate al-Shabaab features clips of Donald Trump alongside the following warning from the late Anwar al-Awlaki: "There are ominous clouds gathering in your horizon. Yesterday, America was a land of slavery, segregation, lynching, and Ku Klux Klan. And tomorrow it will be a land of religious discrimination and concentration camps."

The deeper we dig into the story of Dubai's vaporized gold, the more skeletons just tumble out of the closet on what may be the world's biggest gold smuggling ring ever, one involving not just Turkey and Iran, but the mother of all gold smuggling: China itself...

"The strengthening of Russia happens against the background of new threats to the national security [while] conducting an independent policy has triggered a counteraction from the USA and its allies," Russia's new national security strategy document reads. While the Western media has been quick to say that the new appraisal is further evidence of deteriorating relations between Moscow and Washington, an objective take may tell a different story.