Washington D.C.

Hillary Clinton isn’t a lock for the 2016 Elections: Google searches for US Senator Elizabeth Warren surpassed the former US Secretary of State just last month with a ratio of 6 to 5. Interest in bowling (+85% since October) is growing faster than Facebook (-4%) and Youtube (-2%), and there is a lot more interest in smoking marijuana than tobacco (58 vs. 19 on average). Those are just three of the surprising findings from ConvergEx's latest survey of social engagement using Google Trends.

"CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK." - National Weather Service

Central bank policy is creating liquidity.  Wrong --- the growth in broad money is slowing across the world.
Central bank policy is allowing a frictionless de-gearing. Wrong --- debt to GDP levels of almost every country in the world are rising.
Central bank policy is creating inflation.   Wrong --- inflation in most jurisdictions is now back to, or below, the levels recorded in late 2009.
Central bank policy is fixing key exchange rates and securing growth.  Wrong --- in numerous jurisdictions this exchange rate intervention is slowing the growth in liquidity and thus the growth in the economy.
Central bank policy is keeping real interest rates low and stimulating demand. Wrong --- the decline in inflation from peak levels in 2011 means that real rates of interest are rising.
Central bank policy is driving up asset prices and creating a positive wealth impact which is bolstering consumption. Wrong --- savings rates have not declined materially.
Central bank policy is creating greater financial stability. Wrong --- whatever positives impact central banks are having on bank capital etc they have failed to prevent the biggest emerging market debt boom in history.

Once upon a time, there was a saying "no taxation without representation." Well, in America's transition to an utopia of French or even Venezuelan caliber, for half the population taxation became an anachronism from a bygone era, which in turn meant that representation likewise lost its charm. However, in order to preserve a political system in which the votes of the many are bought with the money of the few or, as the case may be these days, with money printed out of thin air by the Federal Reserve, there was one bureaucratic hurdle: one still needed a US passport in order to vote. However if a newly introduced bill in Washington D.C. passes, one won't even need to be a citizen in order to vote in local elections.

• Obama to focus on middle class in State of Union address (Reuters) - all 4 of them?
• European Stocks Buoyed by ECB Hopes (WSJ)
• China's 2014 economic growth misses target, hits 24-year low (Reuters)
• Federer on Swiss Franc Shock: "Does It Mean I've Got to Win Now?" (BBG)
• First-time buyers help Christie’s reach record sales (FT)
• So it was the NSA? U.S. Spies Tapped North Korean Computers Prior to Sony Hack (BBG)
• Why Chinese Developer Kaisa's Default Risk Has Money Managers Spooked (BBG)
• Morgan Stanley Misses Estimates on Drop in Bond-Trading Revenue (BBG)

America: Land of the Thief, Home of the Slave.

There’s a solitary man at the financial center of the Ferguson protest movement. No, it’s not victim Michael Brown or Officer Darren Wilson, or even the Rev. Al Sharpton, liberal billionaire George Soros donated $33million to social justice organizations, according to The Daily Mail's Kieran Corcoran, which helped turn events in Ferguson from a local protest into a national flashpoint. The handouts, revealed in tax filings from Soros's private foundation, were given to dozens of different groups which weighed in on the crisis, helping to keep events and messages at the top of news agenda.

In all the drama over the recent terrorist events in France, Americans almost forgot that there is evil, pure, concentrated evil, as opposed to CentCom Twitter account hacking evil, in their own backyard and only the government can possibly protect them from it. Sure enough, what better way to remind them of just this than to merge a deranged lunatic, bombs, ISIS, and an attack on DC all into one. That is precisely what ABC blasted about an hour ago, when it reported that the FBI had arrested an Ohio man (different from the one who wanted to kill John Boehner) for plotting an Islamic State-inspired attack on U.S. Capitol, where he hoped to set off series of bombs aimed at lawmakers whom he allegedly considered enemies.

Yesterday was a bad day for the HFT lobby, after not one but two incidents which exposed the high frequency parasites doing what they do best, and perhaps only: rigging markets.  And since it would be laughable if its wan't tragic, we decided to make it even more laughable, by noting that none other than intellectual titan in the House of Representatives, Maxine Waters, had a few choice words to say about the latest HFT rigging busts. That's right: Maxine Waters now opines on market microstructure issues.

Local NBC, FOX, and CBS stations are confirming earlier reports of smoke (so far of an unknown origin) which filled L'Enfant Plaza Metro Station in Washington D.C. this afternoon. Early reports suggested minimal injuries but NBC Washington now confirms one woman died and 84 have been hospitalized. The cause of the smoke remains under investigation - firefighters are on the scene but did not immediately find a fire.

Nearly two-thirds of all Americans are completely and totally unprepared for the next economic crisis.

"Sixty-four unskilled workers will report to new jobs in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday as part of a federal jobs program that provides employment for people unable to find productive work elsewhere... The new hires, who have no talents or abilities that would make them employable in most workplaces, will be earning a first-year salary of $174,000...Expensive as this program is, it is much better to have these people in jobs than out on the street."

The economic "recovery" has been harsh, especially for the former hedge fund manager of Paron Capital Management, James Crombie and his family of 4 including. So, as a result Crombie decided to continue living the good life: he did so by squatting in someone else's Maryland house listed in May 2014 for over $1 million.

In a blow to the constitutional rights of citizens, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 8-1 in Heien v. State of North Carolina that police officers are permitted to violate American citizens’ Fourth Amendment rights if the violation results from a “reasonable” mistake about the law on the part of police.  “By refusing to hold police accountable to knowing and abiding by the rule of law, the Supreme Court has given government officials a green light to routinely violate the law,”