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Update: Liberation now backtracking on the arrest report, saying this instead: The Interior Ministry denied the arrest of the suspects, but police sources, it was confirmed their location and identification.

Having managed to escape after their murderous rampage at the Charlie Hebdo offices, some were skeptical if the police would be able to catch the shooting suspects, who were identified minutes ago, alive. Moments ago French newspaper Liberation reported that the three suspects have indeed been arrested: google translated

The three suspects have been identified. This is Said K., born in 1980 in Paris, Sherif K., born in 1982 in Paris and Hamyd M., born in 1996. All three are from Gennevilliers (Hauts-de-Seine). They were reportedly arrested but no official confirmation comes in time for the Interior Ministry.

Note there is no official confirmation from French authorities yet so it is not exactly clear where Liberation is getting its information.

The Queen has sent "sincere condolences" to French President Hollande over the Paris attack (as have Obama, Merkel, and Cameron) as he puts Paris on high terrorist alert as the manhunt for the reported 3 killers continues. Front National's Marine Le Pen has been more vociferous in her remarks, wanting to "defend against war waged on France," and calling for "rejection of fundamental islam." The remarks and actions of the day are even more chilling in light of Chrlie Hebdo's editor's comments in 2012 that "our job is not to defend freedom of speech but without it we're dead. We can't live in a country without freedom of speech. I prefer to die than to live like a rat."

It has been a busy few days for Germany. In the space of a week, they have warned Greece "there will be no blackmail," adding that a Greek exit from the euro was "manageable," only to hours later deny (clarify) these comments. This was then followed up with beggars-are-choosers Syriza demanding any ECB QE must buy Greek bonds (or else) - which Germany has flatly ruled out - only to see today that Syriza is practically guaranteed to win a "decisive victory" at the forthcoming snap election. So it with a wry smile that we note Bild reports tonight that the German government is preparing for a possible Greek exit, warning of financial system collapse, bank runs, and huge costs for the rest of the EU.

In its usual 'leak the plans and judge market reactions' methodology, unnamed sources have released to Dutch newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad, three potential options that the ECB is considering for buying government bonds. As the Jan 22nd ECB meeting looms, Reuters reports that while the ECB declined to comment, this 'strawman' appears very similar to comments made by ECB chief economists Peter Praet last week. For now, the reaction is not positive... as this indicates the ECB is nowhere near a decision.

A day after the funeral of a colleague killed in an ambush last month fueled tensions between the force and the city's mayor and led to another day when thousands of policemen turned their back on New York mayor Bill de Blasio, two NYC policemen were shot and wounded on Monday night, officials said,  According to Reuters, the officers, part of a plainclothes unit, were shot outside a Chinese restaurant in the Bronx district as they tracked two suspects to an armed robbery, New York Police Commissioner William Bratton told a news conference early on Tuesday. The officers were transported to St. Barnabas Hospital and were expected to survive. Both were listed in stable condition: one, aged 30, was shot in the arm and lower back. The second man, aged 38, had chest and arm wounds. A massive manhunt is taking place for the suspects, described as 25- to 30-year-old Hispanic males, who are still at large. The organization COP SHOT (Citizens Outraged at Police Being Shot) is offering a $10,000 cash reward for information leading to their arrest and conviction.

Same slide, different day, as the crude crash continues, with both WTI and Brent tumbling to multi-year highs, below $49 and $52 respectively. This happened despite the news overnight that China is accelerating 300 infrastructure projects valued at 7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) this year, suggesting that China will focus more on fiscal policy than monetary easing, which in turn led to much confusion in the SHCOMP, which fluctuated up and down for the day several times before finally closing unchanged. There was no confusion about the stops slamming USDJPY, and its Nikkei225 derivative which tumbled 3%, sending Japanese Treasury yields to fresh record lows. Record low yields were also seen in Germany, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, France (and many other places), which in turn forced the US 10 Year to finally dip back under 2.00%. In fact, taken together, the average 10Y bond yield of the U.S., Japan and Germany has dropped below 1% for the first time ever, according to Citi.

"Russia has presented a startling proposal to overcome the tensions with the EU: The EU should renounce the free trade agreement with the United States TTIP and enter into a partnership with the newly established Eurasian Economic Union instead. A free trade zone with the neighbors would make more sense than a deal with the US."

As bonds rally and EUR slumps near 1.20 (the figure) following moar Draghi jawboning and suggestions of sovereign QE from the ECB, Germany has come out swinging to remind the world that it won't stand idly by as the nation's taxpayers are thrown under the bailout-the-EU-or-else bus. Michael Fuchs, deputy parliamentary floor leader of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, told Deutschlandfunk radio on Friday: "We shouldn't pump extra money into these states, but rather make sure they continue along the reform path." As Reuters reports, Fuchs further added, "I'd be grateful if (ECB President Mario) Mr Draghi would make statements along these lines."

Forget targeted US airstrikes, ISIS faces a new existential threat. Citing an unnamed source in a Mosul hospital, Iraq's official pro-government newspaper, al Sabaah, said Ebola arrived in Mosul from "terrorists" who came "from several countries" and Africa. Mashable further confirms, three outlets reported that Ebola showed up at a hospital in Mosul. For now, it's unclear if any disease experts or doctors in Mosul are even able to test for the Ebola virus; but it would mark the first time the virus had been detected in an area controlled by ISIS, a group that doesn't embrace science and modern medicine.

"The Greek political turmoil is likely to complicate matters for the ECB’s preparation of a sovereign QE programme. The prospect of the ECB potentially incurring severe losses is likely to intensify the debate within the Governing Council, where sovereign QE remains controversial. It could also make the start of a buying programme already on January 22 even more ambitious. In addition, the spectre of default could create new limitations on any sovereign QE design."

• Behind the Scenes at Sony as Hacking Crisis Unfolded (WSJ)
• Oil Set for Biggest Slump Since 2008 as OPEC Battles U.S. Shale (BBG)
• Praet Warning of Oil Effects Signals Higher Chance of ECB QE (BBG)
• U.S. Opening Door to More Oil Exports Seen Foiling OPEC Strategy (BBG)
• Venezuela confirms recession, inflation hits 63.6 percent in Nov (Reuters)
• U.S. to station 150 armored vehicles in Europe (Reuters)
• China Stocks Rise to Finish Off Big Year (WSJ)
• RBS Suspends Bonuses of 18 Traders Amid FX Rigging Fine (BBG)

While the last trading day of 2014 will be important if only to see if Dow 18,000 can be recaptured on what is sure to be the lowest volume in years, don't expect much help from Brent which continues to slide and was down nearly 3% at $56.20 or WTI which is also flirting with the $53 level, down almost 2% overnight both set to cap the worst year for the commodity since 2008. Not much should be expected from Treasuries either, set to return over 6% in 2014 - the best performance since 2011 - crushing the latest hoard of bond shorts all of which got the Treasury move in 2014 epically wrong, which will close early at 2 pm. Which means that the HFT algos will once again be driven off the illiquid USDJPY correlation, where low volume will mean 5-10 pip moves today should be the norm, as well as European stocks, whose Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.3% earlier on the latest round of jawboning by an ECB member, this time Dutchman Peter Praet, who said in an interview with German newspaper Boersen-Zeitung that lower oil prices increasingly risk de-anchoring inflation expectations, indicating that quantitative easing is becoming more likely.

The nearly 50 percent plunge in the price of oil during the past six months is expected to leave oil-rich Saudi Arabia with its first budget deficit since 2011 and the largest in its history. Oil is the principal, if not the only, resource in Saudi Arabia, so it’s clear that the price of oil has a strong influence on how the country’s annual budget is drawn up. Different analyses, however, provide different answers to how Riyadh has forecast the commodity’s value. Four of these reports say the Saudi budget is predicated on oil averaging $55 to $63 per barrel in 2015.

• U.S. agency gives quiet nod to light oil exports (Reuters)
• China’s Stocks Fall to Pare Biggest Monthly Advance Since 2007 (BBG)
• The Cartel: How BP Used a Secret Chat Room for Insider Tips (BBG)
• BRICs Busted as Stocks Diverge Most on Record on Outlook (BBG)
• Petrobras deadline prompts some bondholders to push for default (Reuters)
• AirAsia Captain at His Happiest When Flying, Family Says (BBG)
• UK housing crisis: brick stocks hit record low (Telegraph)

What scares me about the Clash of Civilizations is that the three leaders of the three biggest civilizations – the US (Western), China (Sinic), and Russia (Orthodox) – will misplay their hands and take on another civilization directly or, worse, take on each other, and that will vaporize the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence in a nanosecond. The existential risk here for markets is not that China/Russia/Europe/America might “collapse”, whatever that means. No, the existential risk is that the great civilizations of the world will be “hollowed out” internally, so that the process of managing the ten thousand year old competition between civilizations devolves into an unstable game of pandering to domestic crowds rather than a stable equilibrium of balance of power.