BAC

A little over a year since the day that the world first learned about robosigning and the broader problem of fraudclosure, which is merely the functional equivalent of infinite rehypothecation of an underlying asset between a daisy-chain of lien holders, we get the first legal incursion into this farce. From Bloomberg we learn that:

• BANK OF AMERICA, WELLS FARGO, JPMORGAN SUED BY NEW YORK OVER MERS
• NY AG SUIT CITES FRAUDULENT FORECLOSURE FILINGS

In other words, kiss that foreclosure settlement goodbye. In the meantime, the  electronic momos keep taking BAC ever higher even as this news confirms that the bank is about to suffer a multi-billion impairment shortly.

The headlines are crowing of the magnificent CAT earnings (channel stuffing?) which in turn is helping the Dow reach its highest point since May 2008 (CAT is responsible for 27 of the Dow's 30 point gain today alone). This must be the signal that we-the-consuming-people need to borrow-and-spend again right? Well, no. Unfortunately, as many already know, the process of indexing is implicitly flawed in many ways - most importantly survivorship bias. If we compare the performance of the components of the Dow at the start of 2008 to the actual Dow index performance, there is a very significant divergence of around 7% (or around 900 points). This is actually understating the difference (as it is an average) as we note that 5 of the 30 names from 2008 have lost more than 70% of their value (GM, AIG, C, BAC, and AA) since January 2008 (averaging -88% among those). Three names have risen by more than 70% (MCD, HD, and IBM - thank you Warren) as 18 of the 2008 Dow 30 names are lower (on average -36.5%) with the remaining 12 Dow 2008 names up on average 33%. What is worse is the realization of the dramatic loss in real purchasing power as Gold has risen by more than 100% since the start of January 2008 as the Fed continues to realize it can abuse the lemming-like focus on nominal returns.

The debt ceiling, coporate taxes and health care.

The just reported Bank of America top and bottom line numbers were better than expected, coming in at $24.89 billion compared to estimates of $24.5 billion, and EPS of $0.18 vs $0.15. The actual Net Income number number was $2.0 billion and $2.7 billion pre tax. So far so good. But a quick skim through the presentation (attached below), indicates that the $0.18 number may be grossly inflated. Because when one excludes the various selected one time items highlighted in the quarter, which are as follows: Gain on sale of CCB shares-$2.9; Gains on exchanges of trust preferred securities - $1.2; Gains on sales of debt securities - $1.2; Representations and warranties provision - ($0.3); DVA on trading liabilities- ($0.5); Goodwill impairment - ($0.6); Fair value adjustment on structured liabilities - ($0.8); Mortgage-related litigation expense ($1.5), all of which it appears are part of the pretax number, the final EPS comes in at a much less impressive $1.3 billion pre tax, which at the company's indicated tax rate, would have been $1.0 billion after tax, or $0.10 EPS, a notable miss. Which likely means that the Revenue "beat" on an apples to apples basis would also have to be pro forma'ing a bunch of items, and likely would be a miss. But for that we will need to go through the several hundred page 10-Q, something which management is hoping the machines which will send its stock much higher in the pre-market session, will never do. Another notable item is that for the first time in a long time, the company's average deposit balances declined by 1.2% in Q4 from Q3, from $422.3 billion to $417.1 billion (as the rate on deposits fell from 0.25% to 0.23%). Not a good trend, but certainly to be expected following the snafu with the company's electronic banking website last quarter. Also troubling is that in Q4, the company's Home Equity Non-Performing Assets increase for the first time in years, from $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion: it seems the improvement in housing has plateaued. Finally, and most troubling, is that BAC reported that "Estimated range of possible loss related to non-GSE representations and warranties exposure could be up to $5B over existing accruals at December 31, 2011." The reason: a surge in New Claims in Q4 "primarily related to repurchase requests received from trustees on private-label securitization transactions not included in the BNY Mellon settlement." Which means another $5 billion out of Net Income due to underreserving. Because how much did BAC provision for Reps and Warranties in Q4? Why a 'whopping' $263 million. And how much is the potential full notional value of underreserved contingent liabilities? Why $755 billion only.

The slippery slope of lower volume continued today in the NYSE (cash/stock trading markets) despite ES (the e-mini S&P futures market) seeing its 2nd highest volume since 12/16 as that futures market has only seen 1 day of the last 11 with a negative close-to-close change. Driven seemingly by yet another rumor that the Greek PSI deal is close (yet GGBs are lower?), risk assets broadly went into overdrive and while ES held 1300 (on very large average trade size and volume as broke that stop-heavy level), the shifts in commodities, FX, and Treasuiries all helped sustain the euphoria into the close where we stabilized at yesterday's pre-market highs. Copper, Silver, Gold, EURUSD (and all FX majors aside from JPY), Treasury yields (and 2s10s30s) all closed at their highs of the day and while oil dropped early (around the Keytsone news?) it also limped back higher to $101 by the close. Equity markets were slight leaders on the day but credit caught up into the close. We do note that while the high-yield credit index has rallied dramatically but worry that the optical compression of spreads (bullish) is hiding the bear flattener in 3s5s that is seemingly dominating flow for now (relative to underlying credit).

Friday was the most active day in ES (the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract) since 12/16 and today saw volume once again surge in the futures market as it tested 1300 for the first time since 7/28. However, NYSE stock volume (which managed a very late-day spurt on Friday) was dismal once again today (for instance -25% from Friday with 3 minutes to go) with another extremely late jump taking it back to 'normal' for the year so far (but still dramatically low compared to previous year 'norms'). Stocks rallied on China GDP and an optically decent Spanish auction but as we moved into the European close, risk started to leak off and accelerated in the afternoon as IMF headlines, LTRO rumors, and IIF/PSI chatter hit though more expansive ECB rumors seemed to stall losses at last night's ES re-open levels. ES is down very marginally from Friday's late-day ramp close and credit outperformed today (though HYG hung in with stock's weakness) as financials underperformed. The majors were the worst performers with Citi and BofA giving decent amount of YTD gains back. EUR stabilized post-Europe (after selling off into their close) with the USD (DXY) down 0.4% from Friday and GBP underperforming. In the face of the USD stability this afternoon, commodities were mixed with Oil spiking back over $100 (as NatGas was crushed), Copper leaking off but holding gains 2%-plus gains from Friday (China), as Silver and Gold lost their earlier gains (3% and 1.5% at best) to end around 0.75-1% better from Friday's close (still a double on USD weakness). Treasuries closed marginally lower in yield from Friday (1bps max) but were 4-5bps lower in yield from around the European close (as 2s10s30s slid also). Stocks closed well below broad risk assets as FX carry never really joined the derisking craze and oil's strength seemed divergent for now.

We don't have to run through the maze 5 times before we know what lever to push! 

For months in a row, the core propaganda meme seeking to drag lambs into the ponzi, has been one of "ignore Europe - it is irrelevant." Naturally this "narrative" was primarily spread by expendable C-grade media elements whose careers will promptly terminate once this latest episode of artificial "decoupling" is over, as we have been warning for months (at a cost to the S&P of over 200 points). And judging by today's US Trade Balance, which came in at a whopping $47.8 billion on expectations of $45 billion, the widest gap since June, which was driven due a plunge in European exports as the European economy is shriveling in the grips of what is about to be a doozy of a recession, it may be time to polish those resumes as the inevitable decoupling approaches with every passing hour. Yet one of the best comments on what Europe really means for the world comes from none other than Bank of America. While we have discussed previously that BAC is doing its best to crush the market and to precipitate QE3, thus like everyone else, always having an agenda in its message, what it is saying is spot on. And it is as follows: "Europe matters, according to the most oft-heard arguments, because of its size and the euro’s reserve currency status. The Euro area’s systemic relevance (both in trade and financial terms) means that its governance crisis is a global menace. This narrative portrays Europe as a self-contained shock emitter, with the rest of the world cast as innocent bystander. Rather, much like the Lehman bust, the current Euro area crisis may be a symptom of faulty globalized finance. Europe is rightly being held to account for fiscal mismanagement, but there may be bigger cracks in the background." Spot on, and it gets even worse, which we urge everyone who still doesn't grasp the linkages between Europe and the US to read on.

Analyst surveys have now risen to the level of fact, as we all know.  Thus Bloomberg and other news outlets feature detailed reports about the opinions of the Sell Side community as though these musings were burned into stone tablets with the fire of the Holy Spirit.

Thanks to disappointing macro data early on and better-than-expected European auctions (and ECB not cutting), the EUR went bid early on, accelerate after the Europe close, and stayed that way for most of the day (EURUSD squeeze? or ES-EUR convergence?) ending a one-week highs. Credit markets gapped tighter around their open (thanks to Europe's early strength) but leaked back as the morning wore on. Stocks underperformed credit overall as IG and HY credit rallied into the European close and held gains - while HYG (the high yield bond ETF) significantly underperformed on the day (compressing its NAV premium further despite a modest late day pullback) which should be mildly concerning for bulls (given the size of flows and momentum behind it recently). ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) converged with VWAP and CONTEXT around lunch then pulled higher into the close managing to tag the day-session open but broad risk-drivers did not participate so much (and we saw higher average trade size volume come in covering at the close). Oil is down 2.6% on the week (sub $99) seeing its biggest 2-day drop in a month and while Gold and Silver leaked lower from midday highs, Copper managed to hold onto its gains (now up over 6% on the week). Volume ended about average for the year in NYSE stocks and ES (though still well down from December).

Looking for a reason why the surge of BAC has been abruptly halted after hours? Look no further - as predicted earlier, when we commented on the periodic reincarnation of the always false global refi rumor which served among other things to push BAC higher by almost 10%, the rumor was found to be false... all over again. In other words no refi, no benefit to TBTF, and all of today's gains are based on what Bloomberg noted was a report issued yesterday by a Jaret Seiberg, who until recently was an employee of MF Global, and has since been acquired with his entire Washington Research Group by none other than Guggenheim partners, which just happens to be run by former Bear Stearns exec Alan Scwhartz. From Bloomberg, here is the official denial (which came literally seconds after market close):

• White House Has No Plan for Mass Home Refinancing, Person Says

Incidentally, even if the rumor was true, here is JMP explaining why it would have no real impact on Bank of America

Presented with little comment suffice to ask why the rest of the mortgage-exposed financials would not also be rallying if this move higher in BAC stock was all based on mortgage refi program rumors off of Bernanke's white paper released yesterday and in general because it is an election year and Obama will do anything for a short-term vote grabbing fix? It appears just as likely that there is active arbitrage catch up between BofA's CDS and stock from a notable underperformance in mid-December back to 'fair' now.

The New Year has ushered in a new pattern for the market - or perhaps has clarified an old one. The last 3 days has seen European credit markets notably underperform equity markets but stage a significant rally around the equity close each day. This rally then flops into US markets. Today was no different from yesterday - EURUSD leaked lower (holding under 1.28 here) all through the European day session - the question is whether we will see the same stability we saw during yesterday's US afternoon session in FX which will enable the equity strength to hold. We suspect not given that broad risk assets (CONTEXT) has notably not participated in the equity markets pull higher so far. At the same time as Europe closed, with financials massively underperforming, US financials were breaking out as XLF went green and BofA broke above $6. Volumes are above yesterday but below Tuesday for this time of day - still notably low on a medium-term basis. TSYs have been very volatile this morning but European sovereigns have been on a one-way path wider all day - closing near their wides. Commodities are lower (USD strength) but Gold is holding up relatively best for now - well above $1600.

Stock futures are up sharply after another week of unprecedented volatility. Although last week was relatively tame, only 13 times in the last 60 years has the S&P 500 had a down 1% day during the week between Christmas and New Year's.  We managed one of those days last week.  We also had a 1% positive day.  Futures are strong and looks like stocks will open above 1272 (where they closed on Jan. 3, 2011). Not only does volatility remain elevated, the stories are about the same. We have some new acronyms to contend with, but ultimately the European Debt Crisis (it is both a bank and sovereign crisis) and the strength of the US economy and China's ability to manage its slowdown are the primary stories. Issues in the Mid-East remain on the fringe but threaten to elevate to something more serious with Iran flexing its muscles more and more. So what to do?  Prepare for more headlines, more risk reversals, and more pain.

The market has not even opened for regular trading for the first trading day of the year and already predictions for the final print are made. Enter Morgan Stanley, which unlike last year, when it was painfully bullish has come out with an uncharacteristic and quite bearish prediction: "We are establishing a 2012 year-end price target of 1167, representing 7% downside from today’s price. The consensus top-down view has coalesced, with limited variation, around 1350, making our forecast 13% more conservative than the “muddle  through” scenario implied by consensus." And the primary reason for this - a collapse in earnings predictions: "We are launching our 2013 EPS estimate of $103.1, 15% below the bottom-up consensus forecast of $121.1." Time to reevaluate those record corporate profit margin assumptions? That said, make no mistake - just like SocGen, Goldman, UBS and everyone else, the sole purpose of these bearish forecasts is to get the market to drop low enough to give the Fed cover for QE X. Because as Adam Parker, who made the forecast, knows all too well, if the market indeed closes red for 2012, so will Wall Street bonuses.