Belgium

It must be difficult for the BRICS countries today. On one hand, they continue to jockey for respect among the Western powers, insisting on participating in quasi-European bailout funds like the IMF. On the other hand, they are also clearly aware of the Western nations' continuing efforts to surreptitiously devalue their domestic currencies, and the pernicious effect that has had on them as exporters and as lenders of capital. In that vein, it was interesting to note that during the latest BRICS Summit held this past March in New Delhi, the main topic of discussion centered on the creation of the group's first official institution, a so-called "BRICS Bank" that would fund development projects and infrastructure in developing nations. Although not openly discussed, reports suggest what they were really talking about was creating a type of BRICS central bank - an institution that could facilitate their ability to "do more business with each other in their local currencies, to help insulate from U.S. dollar fluctuations…" Given the incredible scale of western central bank intervention over the past six months, the BRICS' increasing frustration with their printing efforts should be a given by now. The real question is what they're doing about it, and what assets they're accumulating to protect themselves from the inevitable, which brings us to gold.

Pretend, from now on, that when you see this word it is written in Moldavian and needs to be translated. France and the periphery nations are screaming this word now while almost all of Europe is in recession and one that we believe will be much deeper than forecast. Consequently “growth” does not mean “growth” and the correct translation is “Inflation.” We have long said it would come to this in Europe and here we go. The troubled countries are going to beg and plead for Inflation and Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and Finland are going to resist. With Hollande the most likely next President of France you are going to see a stand-off between the socialist and the centrist countries so that a log jam will develop and the consequences of its uncoupling are anyone’s guess except that it will be likely violent and an extreme series of events. The governance of Europe on May 5 will not be what is found on May 6 and preparation for this should be high upon everyone’s list.

Following this week's ongoing battery of abysmal economic news out of Europe it will hardly come as a surprise that yet another indicator has been released and is pointing to a multi-year low in the deleveraging (elsewhere called incorrectly austere) continent, namely the Euro-area wide confidence index which just slide to the lowest leve since 2009, missing every single estimate and declining sequentially across the board... And with the UK, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Belgium, Denmark, Holland, Czech Republic, and Slovenia now in re-recession, and Spain a definitive shoo in next week, the kicker is that German GDP will almost certainly now report a second consecutive GDP print in a few days, thus pushing the entire European continent in a double dip.

We start today's story of the day by pointing out that Deutsche Bank - easily Europe's most critical financial institution - reported results that were far worse than expected, following a decline in equity and debt trading revenues of 23% and 8%, but primarily due to Europe simply "not being fixed yet" despite what its various politicians tell us. And if DB is still impaired, then something else will have to give. Next, we go to none other than Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid, who in his daily Morning Reid piece, reminds the world that with austerity still the primary driver in a double dipping Europe (luckily... at least for now, because no matter how many economists repeat the dogmatic mantra, more debt will never fix an excess debt problem, and in reality austerity is the wrong word - the right one is deleveraging) to wit: "an unconditional ECB is probably what Europe needs now given the austerity drive." However, as German taxpayers who will never fall for unconditional money printing by the ECB (at least someone remembers the Weimar case), the ECB will likely have to keep coming up with creative solutions. Which bring us to the story du jour brought by Suddeutsche Zeitung, according to which the ECB and countries that use the euro are working on an initiative to allow cash-strapped banks direct access to funding from the European Stability Mechanism. As a reminder, both Germany and the ECB have been against this kind of direct uncollateralized, unsterilized injections, so this move is likely a precursor to even more pervasive easing by the European central bank, with the only question being how many headlines of denials by Schauble will hit the tape before this plan is approved. And if all eyes are again back on the ECB, does it mean that the recent distraction face by the IMF can now be forgotten, and more importantly, if the ECB is once again prepping to reliquify, just how bad are things again in Europe? And what happens if this time around the plan to fix a solvency problem with more electronic 1s and 0s does not work?

While images of car-chases and Gene Hackman's pork-pie hat may be conjured, the tough new reality that has emerged this week in Europe's rising tensions is the decisive development in France as the election proved a strong showing for both far-right and far-left political parties at the same time. Somewhat surprisingly these extremes are in agreement on critical economic policies: they both want to restrict free-trade and the labor market, and also want to subjugate the ECB. Together with the Socialists and even most Centrists, the extremes clearly converge on a very strong consensus for anti-growth structural policies and massively lax fiscal (fair estimate might be 60% of the voters) and monetary (ditto, perhaps 90% of the voters) policies. This means that France has given up its ambition to become anything like economically similar to Germany. Instead, they have reverted towards joining their natural economic allies in the Eurozone: Italy and Spain. Perhaps this is why French spreads/yields have risen over 40% in the last few weeks as the politically pragmatic Anglo-Saxon spirits are starting to seize the enormity of what is happening: France is no longer any form of supporter of ally of Germany. The idea that somehow, pragmatic voices will stop this political groundswell is entirely misplaced: this destructive belief set has started to run its course. It is now in the Continental blood and the healthiness of economies over the pond is deteriorating fast.

Eurostat just updated their statistics for government debt to GDP for 2011, so here is an updated graph over Belgium, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands, Germany and Sweden and the development of their gross government debt to GDP from 1996 to 2011. Countries not matching the new Merkozy-limit of a maximum of 3% budget deficit were Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and... France. But we can forget the old euro convergence criteria of 2% deficit and at most 60% debt to GDP as instead of working back to the green 'safe' quadrant, the PIGS are heading in the exact opposite direction missing both deficit and debt convergence criteria.

According to Mark Grant, it's over: "There are only two ways out of the current dilemma and that is growth which is not possible as the European economies contract and fare worse as the result of the austerity measures or Inflation; which Germany can’t stomach. The “at the very bottom of the barrel” answer then is not an economic response at all but a question of politics. The answer is actually when some nation cannot take it anymore; either the funding and the increase in national debt and the resultant credit downgrades or in receiving and the pain inflicted upon the populace. From the funding perspective it will be when the debts of the givers begin to match the debts of the borrowers. From the recipients it will be when the core nations decide that no more money will be given and so they will leave the funding nations and their banks with the debts and return to their own currencies and devalue. Which one comes first can only be answered by Divine Providence but I do not believe the train wreck can be stopped. I do not believe, any longer, that the catastrophe can be avoided and I would begin to immediately plan for an event that will eclipse the American financial crisis of 2007-2009 because this one will be far worse."

European sovereigns peaked in spread yield early this morning before the surprisingly positive German confidence data but while France, Belgium, Austria and more significantly Portugal are all improving, Spain and Italy remain far less positive in this small downtrend after two days of significant selling pressure. Both are now around 35bps post the US non-farm-payroll data with Spain cracking back above 6% yield (and remains above 500bps in 5Y CDS). For those wondering what is going on in Portuguese spreads, it appears CDS-Cash basis traders are very active, according to desk chatter, with the spread between extremely 'cheap' bonds and CDS compressing to 7 month narrows here - bonds remain 232bps wide of CDS though as liquidity, ECB subordination, and CDS trigger concerns remain (though this is in from over 700bps difference at its worst in late January 2012).

No, it’s not Greece Prime Minister and bankster puppet Lucas Papadermos who serves his former masters at Goldman Sachs rather than the people of the country he was “appointed” to lead.  No, it’s not German Chancellor Angela Merkel who is putting the interests of the banks and bailout recipients above her fellow Germans at the risk of a continually devaluing euro.  And no, it’s not European Central Bank president Mario Draghi whose cheap euro policies are propping up both the banking sector and governments of the periphery at the expense of capital investment in sectors that would result in actual wealth creation rather than sustaining a clearly unsustainable status quo. Meet Ed Houben.  He is not solely responsible for the slow implosion of the poster boy of New World Order also known as the Eurozone, but the results of his career certainly play a part.  So who is Ed Houben? Well, he is not a politician buying votes with stolen funds.  Nor is he a banker looking to use taxpayers to cover his poor investments.  Mr. Houben is just a lowly entrepreneur.  His business just happens to be in putting a strain on the various welfare states which permeate throughout the Eurozone. Ed Houben is a sperm donor; but he is not just any sperm donor.  The “fruits of his labor,” pardon the phrase, have thus far granted him 82 children; with at least 10 more on the way.

A lot.

• Mixed signals from China's factories in March (Reuters)
• EU wants G20 to boost IMF funds after Eurogroup move (Reuters)
• Euro Leaders Seek Global Help After Firewall Boosted (Bloomberg)
• Euro-Region Unemployment Surges to Highest in More Than 14 Years (Bloomberg)
• Big banks prepare to pay back LTRO loans (FT) ... don't hold your breath
• Coty Inc. Proposes to Acquire Avon Products, Inc. for $23.25 Per Share in Cash (PRnewswire)
• Spain Record Home Price Drop Seen With Bank Pressure (Bloomberg)
• Firm dropped by Visa says under 1.5 million card numbers stolen (Reuters)
• Japan Tankan Stagnates With Yen Seen as Threat (Bloomberg)
• Fed to buy $44 billion Treasuries in April, sell $43 billion (Reuters)

The real story of Germany, to be blunt, is that it is a parasite economy. Its domestic demand lags. It has a labor force with different values than most. It will live with low wage increases and low inflation. It has lured other EMU members into a currency bloc and let them run such persistently higher rates of inflation (with no criticism of it!) that Germany now OWNS any domestic demand that other EMU countries can generate. Germany is like the vampire squid economy of Europe. Now it’s kind of caught in its own huge blinding squirt of ink, since its banks have lent to these other EMU countries to finance their excessive consumption and Germany is entangled. But on the real-economy side of things, the German economy is eating their lunch, however, meager.

When I first attempted to find a more realistic debt to GDP ratio for Spain, Belgium, Italy et al I did it on a stand-alone basis; no inclusion of their European liabilities. When I approached Germany, given their size and importance in the EU, I focused upon their liabilities to the European Union. Several institutions have since asked me to consider the total liabilities for each country as every nation in the European Union has national debts as well as debts for their percentage of ownership for the EU and the European Central Bank. Using the combination of national liabilities and any nation’s percentage of EU/ECB liabilities one then could ascertain a final and complete picture of a real debt to GDP number that, unlike the Eurostat data, would be inclusive of sovereign guarantees, contingent liabilities and their responsibilities to the EU and the ECB. This schematic then would tell each of us what a given country actually owed so the total reality could be assessed for judgment.  Given that Spain is currently in focus and that nowhere that I have ever seen has there been an accurate national debt coupled with Spain’s European debt schematic; I have decided to provide you one.

Nothing has changed. You are counting the commitments of people who need the money.  It is like getting a loan from the bank and trying to make them more comfortable by telling them, not only will we co-sign our own loan, but we will give them a guarantee that we will pay it back. These are the same people who constantly try to overwhelm current problems with huge headlines and promises of a better future.  They don’t have the money, and never will.  They also promised speculators in Greece would lose their shirts. We need to see the details, but be prepared to be underwhelmed.

In a number of stories in China's top newspapers today, the US has been slammed for its moves to restrict Iran's oil trade which could see Chinese banks sanctioned. As The People's Daily noted, Hong Lei (a Foreign Ministry spokesperson) warned such unilateral action was not only wrong but could exacerbate the stand-off over Iran's nuclear program. Arguing that China 'imports oil based on its economic development needs' without violating relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and undermining the third party's and international community's interests, he noted China will not accept the practice of saddling unilateral sanctions on the third country. Adding to this, China Daily notes the typical UN blah-dom of Wang Min's comments of the "more pragmatic importance to be firmly committed to dialogue and negotiations in order to properly solve the Iranian nuclear issue". While China is clearly 'disappointed' in the US efforts, Russia turns the dial to 11 with its comments that the US efforts are inflaming, as Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday, "Scientists in nearly all countries....are convinced that strikes may slow down the Iranian nuclear program. But they will never cancel it, close it down or eliminate it" warning that Iran will have no option but to develop nuclear weapons should the US strike. Well you can't please all the people all the time eh? Just ask Ben.