BIS

Proposals from BIS, OCC and FDIC Would Reclassify Gold as a Tier 1 Asset

Turkey raised its reported gold holdings by another 2% in the month of May. Turkey’s gold holding rose by 5.7 tonnes in May to total 245 tonnes, International Monetary Fund data showed, making it the latest in a string of countries to increase gold bullion reserves this year. Turkey has allowed banks to hold more of their reserves in gold to provide extra liquidity. The central bank this month raised the proportion of reserve requirements that can be held in foreign exchange to 50 percent from 45 percent, while the limit for gold was increased to 25 percent from 20 percent. The changes will add as much as $2.2 billion to gold reserves. Gold accounts for about 9.1 percent of Russia’s total reserves, 5.1 percent of Ukraine’s and 15 percent of Kazakhstan’s, according to the World Gold Council. That compares with more than 70 percent for the U.S. and Germany, the biggest bullion holders, according to Bloomberg figures. Kazakhstan plans to raise the amount of gold it holds as part of its reserves to 20 percent, Bisengaly Tadzhiyakov, deputy chairman of the country’s central bank, said earlier this month.

PIIGS are only the beginning.

"Private Debt Doesn't Matter" Because "Banks Can't Create Money Out of Thin Air"

Did a BIS gold trader just spill coffee on his keyboard not once but twice, or did we just have another ye olde algo trick of stopping the hunts (get it?) out of all marginal players? We will never know. What we will know is that paper prices of physical objects are becoming increasingly more meaningless.

It would appear the BIS gold trading team is back from their cappuccino break.

Shifting away from the theatrical travesty for a moment, we move to the other such travesty: Europe, where while nothing has been fixed, despite what the BIS is trying to do with the EURUSD which is now up 100 pips in a straight line since the Dimon testimony started, we find that while the world is concerned about Greek elections, the real gamechanger may be the old and known one: Greek cash, or the lack thereof, and more specifically yet another bailout for the country. RTE reports that as of today Greece has about €2 billion in cash left, pro forma for the recent cliffhanger cash infusion from Europe which almost did not come, which is expected to last the country for just about one more month.

As Many Have Predicted for Years

All you need to read and some more.

• Spain Seeks Joint Bank Effort as Pressure Rises on Merkel (Bloomberg)
• Banks Cut Cross-Border Lending Most Since Lehman: BIS (Bloomberg)
• Shirakawa Bows to Yen Bulls as Intervention Fails (Bloomberg)
• Merrill Losses Were Withheld Before Bank of America Deal (NYT)
• Investors Brace for Slowdown (WSJ)
• China's lenders ordered to check bad loans (China Daily)
• Obama Seeks Way Out of Jobs Gloom (WSJ)
• Noda Reshuffles Japan Cabinet in Bid for Support on Sales Tax (Bloomberg)
• China to open the market further (China Daily)
• Australian Industry Must Adapt to High Currency, Hockey Says (Bloomberg)
• Tax-funded projects to be more transparent (China Daily)

All you need to read.

Last week, when we reported on the then brand new record number of EUR non-commercial short contracts as reported by the CFTC, we said: "with such a massive surge in shorts in a short period of time, this means that the likelihood of major short squeezes is substantial on even the most innocuous of news, such as a G8 summit which promises much but delivers nothing, or China once again saying it will gladly focus on growth (as opposed to what? non-growth?), or some DieBold-inspired leadership change in the Greek pro/anti-bailout polls. Our advice to FX trading readers: be very careful with EURUSD stops: it is very likely that in their pursuit of short covering squeezes, (BIS) algos will take the pair substantially into the offer-side stop limit buffer just to force short hands out, which in turn may initiate short-term covering ramps." As of last Friday, the record number of net short contracts (-173.9K), just rose to a new all time high of -195.4K. The result: something as worthless and meaningless as uber-volatile Greek political polls (which had Syriza with a 4 point lead last Friday, which somehow dissolved and is now in second place about 24 hours later), was enough to send the EUR higher nearly by 100 pips overnight. Obviously, with ever more record shorts in the currency, expect the desperate continent to come up with nothing but more flashing red headlines in attempts to spook weak hands and incite even more very transitory short covering.

Mere hours after the annual European Eurovision song contest ended at a cost to the host country in the hundreds of millions, money which should have been spent productively elsewhere but wasn't while providing utterly unnecessary distraction to hundreds of millions from what is truly important, we get another stark reminder that the continent is not only broke, but that it no longer even pretends to have credible ideas about how to go about fixing itself. The latest speculation: "Secret plans are being drawn up in Brussels for a European rescue fund that could seize control of struggling banks across the Continent. The scheme, which would be funded by a levy on banks, will be presented by supporters as a "silver bullet" that could halt the steady escalation of the eurozone debt crisis. It is being worked on in tandem with a proposal from Mario Monti, the Italian prime minister, for a Europe-wide guarantee on bank deposits. The proposal would throw the financial muscle of Europe's stronger nations, and healthy financial institutions, behind weaker countries and lenders. Proponents, including top advisers to the European Commission, say the removal of the threat of bank collapses would restore market confidence in Italy and Spain." In other words, last week's rumor that was supposed to be presented at the latest flop of a FinMin summit is once again being reincarnated as apparently nothing else in the European arsenal has any remaining credibility - and as a reminder, none other than unelected Monti's one-time employer Goldman Sachs said a eurowide deposit guarantee would not work.

European stock futures saw a jump higher at the cash equity open as the Eurostoxx broke through yesterday’s high of 2160. Comments from the Italian PM from late yesterday, who said that the majority of ministers are in favour of Euro bonds was noted but the move was largely technically driven with stops tripped on the ascent. In reaction to this the European bond yield spreads in the 10yr part of the curve tightened aggressively with OAT’s outperforming once again edging back toward the psychological 100bps level. Meanwhile in the FX market the USD weakened in early trade on the renewed risk appetite which bolstered the gains in EUR/USD alongside touted option defence by a Swiss name at the 1.2500 level. Commodity linked currencies such as the AUD was the main benefactor of a moderate move higher in crude futures and precious metals but has been capped so far by offers at 0.9800. Into the North American open prices have pared, with European equities in the cash and futures both slipping into the red, excepting the DAX. A distinctly light calendar from the US with only the May final Michigan report due, coupled with an early closure in the Treasury pit today, ahead of the Memorial day holiday, means that volumes will likely decline into the latter stages of the US session today.

Whether or not the European deterioration is real or not, one thing is certain: FX traders aren't sticking around to bet on a rebound. As of Friday, the net non-commercial position in the EUR currency was at -173,869 contracts or the biggest net short in history, surging by 30k contract over the prior week, and by a record 70k contracts in the past two weeks as things in Europe unwound rapidly. The short position is greater than the last such record hit back on January 24, when the net short was -171K, and the LTRO effect was yet expected to take hold. Naturally, with such a massive surge in shorts in a short period of time, this means that the likelihood of major short squeezes is substantial on even the most innocuous of news, such as a G8 summit which promises much but delivers nothing, or China once again saying it will gladly focus on growth (as opposed to what? non-growth?), or some DieBold-inspired leadership change in the Greek pro/anti-bailout polls. Our advice to FX trading readers: be very careful with EURUSD stops: it is very likely that in their pursuit of short covering squeezes, (BIS) algos will take the pair substantially into the offer-side stop limit buffer just to force short hands out, which in turn may initiate short-term covering ramps. Which would be great for Europe - after all what better indication of the viability of the continent than some algos tripping over each other and generating momentum.