goldman sachs

"Then tell me, future boy, who's President of Brazil in 2016? Then who's vice president?"

On the basis of the fundamental economic backdrop, Goldman Sachs sees VIX fair-value at least 19, with low-teens more consistent with ISM in the upper 50s (not the current sub-50 levels). However, credit (and FX) protection markets imply significantly more risk ahead with CDX HY stalled at 2month lows (while VIX hits 3 month lows). Given historical relationships, credit markets suggest a VIX of 25 is more consistent with reality (especially as Skew tail risk rolls down to normal risk).

The second tech bubble, one which has seen nearly 200 tech "unicorns" rising out of the ZIRP ashes in the past few years and promptly attaining valuations of over $1 billion, is bursting. WSJ reports that investment bankers cautioned Dropbox that the San Francisco company might be unable to go public at its latest private round "valuation" of $10 billion.

When just days after Yum! Brands saw its biggest earnings disappointment in years sending its shares cratering following Chinese results which cames orders of magnitude below expectations and leading to a major guidance cut, it appointed Icahn protege, activist investor Keith Meister to its board, many speculated that some major spin-off, or split of the company's China facing assets, was just a matter of time. And so it was, less than a week to be precise. Moments ago Yum! Brands announced its intention to split into two companies creating a publicly traded Yum! China or ("Bad Yum") which will contain the ongoing Chinese weakness, while keepping legacy Yum! Brands.

After yesterday's closing ramp "prudently" just ahead of an abysmal IBM earnings report with the lowest revenues since 2002, and the latest rally in capital markets which sent European stocks to their highest level since August on the back of a barrage of global bad data which has unleashed the Pavlovian liquidity dogs screaming for moar central bank bailouts, this morning has seen a modest decline in the Stoxx 600 driven by energy names, while S&P500 futures are set to open lower on IBM's disappointment at least until the latest massive BOJ USDJPY buying spree sends the pair to 120 and the S&P solidly in the green. The biggest political event overnight was the Canadian election, where Trudeau's liberals swept PM Harper from power, capping the biggest political comeback in the country's history; the Canadian dollar is largely unchanged after initially weakening then rising.

The key overnight event was the much anticipated, goalseeked and completely fabricated Chinese economic data dump, which was both good and bad depending on who was asked: bad, in that at 6.9% it was below the government's 7.0% target and the lowest since Q1 2009, and thus hinting at "more stimulus" especially since industrial production (5.7%, Exp. 6.0%) and fixed spending also both missed; it was good because it beat expectations of 6.8% by the smallest possible increment, and set the tone for much of Europe's trading session, even if Asia shares ultimately closed largely in the red over skepticism over the authenticity of the GDP results. Worse, and confirming the global economy is now one massive circular reference, China accused the Fed's rate hike plans for slowing down its economy, which is ironic because the Fed accused China's economy for forcing it to delay its rate hike.

· ECB rate decision and press conference is set to take place on Thursday, with participants looking for indications as to if and how the central bank’s QE programme may be expanded

· US earning season continues next week, with high profile names including IBM, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Morgan Stanley and Bank of New York Mellon all scheduled to report

It was clear what was about to happen in Syria only because we understood one important fundamental – that there are no “sides” in any modern conflict, only proxies fighting on a global chessboard controlled by the same elitist interests. Syria represented a perfect catalyst for a planetary scale conflict triggered between East and West in a way that could divert attention from internationalists. Modern war, whether through kinetics or economics, is almost always theater designed to distract and terrorize the masses, which are the true target of any conflagration.

Just because no one has ever manipulated, fixed, or otherwise rigged any markets yet, doesn’t mean they won’t try, which why it’s nice to know that honest firms like Goldman are on the job when it comes to watching for any kind of nefarious shenanigans.

• McDonald’s Close to Deciding Whether to Change Structure of U.S. Real Estate (WSJ)
• Stocks Rise as Stimulus Bets Spur $4.1 Trillion Gain; Oil Climbs (BBG)
• Wall Street bonuses likely to plunge as trading revenue drops (Reuters)
• Syrian army launches Aleppo offensive with Iranian support (Reuters)
• Malaysia’s Najib Razak Played Key Role at Troubled 1MDB Investment Fund (WSJ)
• VW Loses Market Share in Europe as Diesel-Motor Recalls Loom (BBG)

In the absence of any key economic developments in the Asian trading session, Asian stocks traded mostly under the influence of the late, pre-opex US ramp momentum courtesy of another day of ugly economic data in the US (bad econ news is good news for liquidity addicts), closing solidly in the green across the board, led by China (+1.6%) and Japan (+1.1%) thanks in no small part to the latest tumble in the Yen carry trade, which mirrored a bout of USD overnight weakness. And since a major part of the risk on move yesterday was due to Ewald Nowotny's comments welcoming more QE, news from Eurostat that Eurozone CPI in September dropped -0.1% confirming Europe's deflation continues, should only be greeted with even more buying as it suggests further easing by the ECB is inevitable.

News That Matters

As we have warned numerous times - and any trader old enough to have actually lived through a credit cycle can attest to - there is only so much releveraging shareholder-friendly exuberance firms can do before the company's balance sheet becomes questionable. That inflection point has come for US equities. The deterioration of balance-sheet health is "increasingly alarming" and will only worsen if earnings growth continues to stall amid a global economic slowdown, according to Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan's Eric Beinstein warns "the benefit of lower yields for corporate issuers is fading." The weakness is widespread as BlackRock fears "you’ll continue to see some land mines out there."

“The trend in our projected net resources has continued to be negative," warns Treasury Secretary Lew forcing the administration to move up the deadline for the end of extraordinary measures from Nov 5th to Nov 3rd.