goldman sachs

Charlie Gasparino over at the Daily Beast points out a new development in the neverending Ken Lewis saga, which if true, may mark the beginning of the end of the pristine image of Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson: "In defending former Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis against charges that he misled investors, his lawyers will call as witnesses former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and the current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, according to people close to the matter." We hope the AG will take advantage of this opportunity to pursue justice, and expose the former Treasury Secretary and the just reconfirmed Fed Chairman who will under oath, be revealed as the true masterminds in this illegal operation.

The Syndicate Encouraging Corruption lately has been far more busy begging for money from the Tim Geithner's gargantuan budget than performing any enforcement, analysis, or regulation, case in point today's second attempt to kill any investigation into the ML/BAC merger. We hope some Congressional or Senate committee will finally find the guts to subpoena any and all communication between BACML, or any other banks, and the SEC related to this proposed settlement, to uncover just what the SEC's motives are to fast-lane yet another case involving the endless corruption on Wall Street. Luckily Cuomo is still there to pursue the punishment of real wrongdoing, since America is now completely unable to rely on the $1 billion publicly funded organization, which, at least on paper, "works in American investors' interest"... and by American investors we assume the agency does not refer to Goldman Sachs or Bank Of America. Yet judgment day for Mary Schapiro may soon be coming. Larry Doyle at Sense on Cents notes that next week FINRA's board of directors will finally address alleged wrongdoings by Schapiro. We join Larry in asking: "Will the Board realize it ultimately needs to be accountable to ALL its member firms and, by extension, to the American public at large? Will the Obama administration compel the Board to provide the transparency America so badly wants?"

Zero Hedge embraces contrarian analysis. But its readers tend to be exaggeratedly and stubbornly critical of any opinion contrarian to the "ZH consensus". One of the most fallacious application of this proclivity is the never-ending attacks on TBTF banks, and the blame put on them for causing the current financial mess. We disagree with this myopic train of thought. Although banks have their share of criminality to pursue and prosecute, is the main blame argument posed against them merely the age-old straw man fallacy manifest?

Sovereign risk was once again front and center on the minds of investors today. Despite the EU's efforts to 'back' Greece's cost cutting plans, investors remain far less sanguine than Almunia. Greek bonds managed a small 7bps rally relative to Bunds (which widened 2bps) as CDS were around 9bps wider (compressing the basis a little more). Don't read too much into the small rally in bonds (the basis remains wide at 55-60bps and we suspect given the convergence today that some are putting the trade on).

Spreads were mixed in the US with IG unch, HVOL wider, ExHVOL weaker, and HY rallying. IG trades 1.5bps wide (cheap) to its 50d moving average, which is a Z-Score of 0.2s.d.. At 92.25bps, IG has closed tighter on 30 days in the last 282 trading days (JAN09). The last five days have seen IG flat to its 50d moving average.

As mentioned in my previous posts, I have been engaged in a discussion of the valuation of Goldman Sachs and investment banks in general. Here is how it has played out.

Today's Geithner drubbing comes courtesy of Sen. Paul Ryan, who in a brief 3 minutes presentation indicates why the proposed budget is not only a joke (the fact that he compares it to a box of cigarettes in light of Geithner's associated disclaimer speaks words for the future health of this country. Only only wonders if it is Ben Bernanke or Goldman Sachs who has assumed the role of Surgeon General), but why the bond vigilantes are just waiting in the corridors to see the Fed and PD's control over the bond market slip before they bring the house down.

If only there were more journalists like Dylan, the vast majority of America's population may well have been on its way to grasping the gravity and the real implications of our current unprecedented wealth transfer paradigm, which the President, despite increasing "political points" rhetoric and recent attempts, such as the Volcker Rule, to if not stop then at least delay (thank you teleprompters), has been instrumental in blessing. Between TARP, guarantees, direct cash investments, and the trillions in implicit benefits from the record steep yield curve, the only beneficiary from the existing financial environment is the banking system, period. That this money could be put to much greater use elsewhere is without question: if these trillions had been invested in education, tech and research, America could now be on the verge of another technological revolution. But it is now too late (and, yes, this does account for marvels such as the Kindle - now if there was only a cool looking gadget that would force more Americans to learn to read). Looking back many years from now, the sad legacy of this administration will not be some vaunted healthcare reform, but the unprecedented amount of capital that shifted away from the nation's working class to the nation's "financial innovation producing" class.

At this point blatant episodes of insider trading are a weekly if not daily occurrence. While we still expect to hear back from our friends over at Mary Schapiro's woefully underfunded Syndicate Encouraging Corruption (SEC), regarding the previously disclosed insider trading in New York Bancorp, here is another one for Mary and her gray matter-challenged subordinated to mull, this time involving clothing retailed Ann Taylor.

Senator Corker challenged Mr. Volcker's stance in today's congressional hearings on the Volker Rule by saying that no financial holding company that had a commercial bank failed while performing proprietary trading. It appears as if Mr. Corker may have received his information from the banking lobby, and did not do his own homework.
Let's reference the largest commercial bank/thrift failure of all...

In a seeming reversal of yesterday's FT rumors that Chris Dodd would do everything in his power to undermine the passage of the Volcker rule, as part of his prepared remarks at today's hearing on high-risk investment activities by banks, Dodd said that he "strongly supports" a proposal to restrict large commercial banks from engaging in significant proprietary trading or owning hedge funds or private equity arms.

A knowledgeable reader, who is currently a sell side analyst, questioned
me about using book value to value Goldman and investment banks in
general. He proposed using a formula that entails revenues as well due
to the fact that the main concern during the crisis was breakup value
while revenue visibility is clearer now that the crisis is over. While the crisis may be over, the root causes of the crisis have went nowhere, and the counter party risk concentration is actually much worse than before. In addition, not only is it political suicide to attempt to bailout another bank, I think it is poor economic policy as well. Combining these two assertions, it is not clear that we will not see anymore bank failures. The probability of such has dropped considerably though.

Pulling Volcker out of the closet following the Massachusetts debacle was a useful diversion: the whole prop trading ban seemed almost credible. And now that there are no immediate public votes in the future, it is safe to put Volcker back where he belongs, but quietly, lest the morts and general peasantry think that Obama is all bluster and no actions. Alas, if the latest development in the ongoing Wall Street "regulatory" saga, as reported by the FT is any indication, the prop trading plan, as proposed by Volcker, is now dead. This time, the last chance to put the financial system on some stable footing comes courtesy of Dick Shelby, Chris Dodd and Paul Kanjorski.

In response to The Times' article on Lloyd's alleged $100 million bonus, Goldman has sent out an email early Monday in which it refutes the number and claims the whole story is "speculative nonsense." As the Dow Jones reports, Goldman's email appeals to everyone's heartstrings in realizing just what a generous, competitor-friendly, bailout-free and, in a word, godly organization it truly is:

"Everything Goldman Sachs has said and done in terms of compensation this year gives the lie to The Times story," the spokesman said. He added that Blankfein received no bonus in 2008, and that Goldman's ratio of compensation and benefits to net revenue in 2009 was the lowest in its
history as a public company.

Goldman has yet to state if the actual bonus number is lower or higher.

Before I get started, I want all to realize that this is not Goldman bashing piece. I think it is a [relatively] well run company, but its PR machine appears to be from Kindergarten land, and the aura of invincibility that it enjoys(ed?) is highly undeserved, as a consequence its historical "aura-based" premium is absolutely unjustified. Case in point...

Now that's some serious pocket change you can believe in. If correct, Blankfein's 2009 bonus will be over 30% greater than his $68 million take home in 2007, the previous all time record year for Wall Street. Check to you, Mr. President: surely this will merit some more populist rhetoric and even more decisive complete lack of action on your behalf.