#1 In Tentacle Selection: 300,000 People Applied To Goldman Sachs In The Past Two Years; 4% Were HiredSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2011 20:06 -0400
It may not be quite the entire 1% but it is close. In his presentation to Bank of America on Tuesday, when discussing "talent (or tentacle) retention, Lloyd Blankfein disclosed this whopper: "Almost 300,000 individuals applied for full-time positions at Goldman Sachs for 2010 and 2011. We hired fewer than 4% of that population, and, though most had multiple offers, nine out of ten people offered a job with us accepted." In other words, it is more difficult to get into Goldman than Harvard. As a reminder, the US labor force has 140 million people at last count (or, coming from the BLS, rough propaganda guess). In other words, more than 0.2% of the entire US employed workforce (because let's face it, Goldman won't hire anyone without prior experience) applied to work at Goldman Sachs. And by the retention rating, it seems that the number one dream for every job seeker in the US is to get the fat letter from Goldman HR. Speaking of training, we also get this pearl from Lloyd: "This year, we expect to provide 800,000 hours of training to our people, an average of 25 hours per person." Just what is it that these people are taught so intensely?
Who would have thought that doing away with your prop trading unit would have consequences? Surely not Goldman spokesman Lucas van Praag or anyone who read his response to Zero Hedge from December 2009 in which he made the argument that Goldman's prop trading unit is largely irrelevant to the firm. Alas, as the last quarter showed, it was. A lot. $2.5 billion worth. Net result: GS stock is now trading at imminent MBO levels, and more importantly, there is no joy in bankerville:
- GOLDMAN NAMES SMALLEST CLASS OF MANAGING DIRECTORS SINCE 2008
- GOLDMAN SACHS PROMOTES 261 EMPLOYEES TO MANAGING DIRECTOR
However as the video below proves, it still does, and always will, feel good to be a banker.
Not on even a Sunday is the headline barrage over:
- MARIO MONTI ASKED TO FORM NEW ITALIAN GOVERNMENT
- MONTI TO MAKE COMMENTS AFTER ACCEPTING OFFER TO LEAD ITALY
- MARIO MONTI THANKS NAPOLITANO FOR OFFER TO FORM GOVERNMENT
- MARIO MONTI SAYS ITALY MUST BE PROTAGONIST IN EUROPE
- MARIO MONTI SAYS HE'LL ACT TO SAVE ITALY FROM CRISIS
And so the international advisor to Goldman Sachs drones on. In the meantime, the €300 billion in BTP sales is set to resume in just over 13 hours.
Even the squid has a bad day once in a while.
Some much needed clarity from the people who run Europe's printers. And, just as in the case of Credit Suisse, Goldman is desperately pushing for Italy to avoid precisely the outcome that Berlusconi has said is coming, namely early elections: "These could be held in mid-January at the earliest, although they would most likely be postponed until the Spring amid market turmoil. This would represent the worst scenario for markets, in our view. Since President Napolitano is aware of this, he will probably try to resist dissolving Parliament at this juncture. Also, most centrist parties would want to change the electoral law before a new vote takes place. All these scenarios will take some time to play out, a couple of weeks at least. In the meantime, the higher priced Italian government bonds will continue to be sold, as gradually higher margin requirements are applied. On our central case, intermediate to long-end bonds should continue to be supported relative to AAA-rated securities by the ECB."
While hardly the explanation for why the EURUSD has surged nearly 100 pips in the past 45 minutes on absolutely no news (or, in this bizarro market, explaining it perfectly), and as the market focuses its attention on where the line of angry young protesters is longer: by the New York Stock Exchange or in front of the Apple store, Italians, once again betrayed by their politicians who were bribed by Berlusconi to vote for him in the latest vote of "confidence" (at a price of €250k per vote), have decided to make their feelings for financial innovation, and its patron saint, known, by storming the Goldman office in Milan. From Corriere: "on Friday students took to the streets to demonstrate for and against the public school funds the crisis and the government. The procession was attended by about ten thousand young people (two thousand according to initial estimates of the Police Station). The raid at the headquarters of U.S. bank Goldman Sachs was the first action of the student demonstration. A group of twenty boys tried to get a surprise in the Milanese headquarters of the U.S. bank, Bossi in the square, near Piazza Cordusio. Rejected by some employees of the home, the young people then smeared with spray paint the hallway and throwing bags full of garbage to the cry of "Goldman Sachs has the courage to face the future without young people." We doubt this is the last expression of love for those who do God's work in Europe, primarily with austerity-delaying FX swaps... Now that the delay can no longer be delayed.
Work In Banking? Find Out If You Will Be Laid Off... And If You Work At Bank Of America Click Here Now: Update - And Goldman SachsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2011 13:54 -0400
Something tells us this formerly well-hidden treasury trove of imminent layoff information will soon be the most visited webtsite for every bankers in the Manhattan area. Presenting the Department of Labor's Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification program, aka the "advance notice of mass layoffs on Wall Street" website. A great example of why 554 people should not look forward to the holidays presented below (our condolences Bank of Americans and Goldman Saches).
Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw Squid: Goldman Sachs and the Market Perception of Real Risks!Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 10/04/2011 08:13 -0400
Booyah! There you go. The markets & the media have concentrated on Morgan Stanely because Goldman has successfully hid much of its risk from those who didn't subscribe to BoomBustBlog. Watch the fireworks as the truth is exposed, then goes VIRAL!!!
A little under a year ago, with much pomp and circumstance, Goldman’s economic team proclaimed its multi-year long bearish outlook on the economy over, and on December 1 of 2010, issued a report in which it noted that it was turning a new leaf in its “bleak” perception of the economy, based in big part on its expectation that the combination of an ebullient monetary environment (QE2 has just been launched) and a cornucopic (sic) fiscal stimulus (the first, of many, payroll tax cuts had just been passed) would lead the economy to a sustained growth of not less than 4% (and led Zero Hedge to officially proclaim Goldman as having jumped the shark in conjunction with our prediction that a year hence the US economy would be contracting yet again). Zero Hedge was right, and Goldman was 100% wrong. Today, we however witness something different: in what seem to be a major paradigm shift within the firm’s strategic research team (not Jan Hatzius’ group but that of Dominic Wilson), the firm appears to officially give up on “recovery” as a modal outcome for both the US and the developed world, and instead aims a little lower. Far lower. The report is titled “From the 'Great Recession' to the 'Great Stagnation'” and in an extended analysis looking at 150 years of historical data, it concludes that “those historical lessons suggest that the probability of stagnation in the current environment is much higher than usual, at about 40% for developed markets. Trends in Europe and the US are so far still following growth paths that would be typical of stagnations.” Looks like Goldman just proved us at least half right when we said in January that the keyword of 2011 would be “stagflation.” Luckily, the Fed and the world’s central banks still have 3 months in which to prove the second half of our prediction correct as well.
If Goldman rules the world where governments around the world fail as Alessio Rastani claimed, then GS stock chart should not look this ugly-- down almost 50%-- in the past 24 months.
While there is speculation whether today's historic announcement by the Fed in which it dated the beginning of the end of ZIRP, and in reality just the beginning of the beginning, is some form of shadow QE3, what is certain is that there is no Large Scale Asset Purchasing component to it yet. As such while the market immediately discounted the impact of 2 years of duration risk elimination (roughly 70 ES point equivalent), this has now been priced in, and the market must now look to mechanisms by which the it will have to absorb ~ $2.0 trillion in debt issuance over the next year without Fed help (and to those sticking to some modified version of MMT, keep in mind there is only $1.6 trillion in excess reserves so even a full recycling thereof would be insufficient to match demand of funds). Enter Goldman Sachs which puts the argument to bed: "We now see a greater-than-even chance that the FOMC will resume quantitative easing later this year or in early 2012." Why? Because what was lost in the noise today is that the US economy is contracting and the unemployment rate is rising: i.e., we are reentering a recession. And what the Fed did today is absolutely powerless to change this even from the Fed's point of view. Quote Hatzius: "This would probably mean more QE if their forecast converged to our own modal view of a flat-to-higher unemployment rate through the end of 2012, let alone our downside risk case of a renewed recession." But what about the historic dissent? Ah, therein lies the rub: "We view Chairman Bernanke's willingness to live with the dissents as a strong signal that he and the rest of the Fed leadership view the need for renewed easing as more important than the institutional norm of consensus decisionmaking." So there you go. The market will wake up tomorrow with a hangover, and say the one word it always does: "More." Absent that, the slide will, as predicted, resume, and it is none other than Goldman Sachs who has once again, just like back in 2010, set the strawman up for the Fed doing simply more of the same which does nothing to actually fix the economy, but bring us all closer to that epic meltdown discussed by Andy Lees earlier, and by Zero Hedge over the past two and a half years.
Still confused by the last two days of Ben Bernanke testimony which in under 24 hours had elements of glaring contradiction? A) You are not alone and B) Judging by the market's response to the Congressional and Senatorial portions of Bernanke's testimony, not even he knows what monetary message he was trying to convey. And since all of his decisions are ultimately predicated by Goldman Sachs (either in the form of current GS employee Jan Hatzius, or former GS employee Bill Dudley) here is Goldman's take on the "Q&A on the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook" based on Alec Phillips and Sven Jari Stehn's take of Humphrey Hawkins events in the past two days.
In advance of tomorrow's Bureau of Labor Statistics fireworks, Goldman's Andrew Tilton explains why GS has a prediction of +125,000 for tomorrow's NFP number (and sees the unemployment rate declining to 9.0%), and provides a short perspective on why the market is still bearish on the employment picture. Probably a more fitting question is why the market is not far more bearish on jobs: 13 weeks of 400K+ claims, offset merely by one 0.1 increase in the service ISM employment component (from 54.0 to 54.1). Ah yes, the ADP number. The same ADP number which "surged" in January leading Barclays to come up with the insane NFP prediction of +580,000 (and a 95% confidence in a 450,000 print) only for the final number to be a gross disappointment. But who cares about headfakes: the market is back in its mania phase when good news are doubly accentuated, and bad news are immediately ignored. So anyway, here is Goldman and David Rosenberg. As to what happens tomorrow, only the Obama administration, Congress, Larry Meyer, and virtually every single NFP bank, know what is coming tomorrow.
As Zero Hedge readers predicted by a margin of more than nearly three to one, Tim Geithner's next employer of choice, per bnet's Constantine von Hoffman, is none other than the universal viceroy-cum-vampire squid presiding at 200 West according to a just "leaked" letter. And while we all know the key resume highlights (issuing $1.5 trillion in debt a year for the duration of his tenure, mopped up on both sides by Quantitative Easing, bringing America to the verge of insolvency and living on an "auction to auction" basis), here is the summary of Geithner's key qualifications that make him a shoo in for the job.
Its one thing when Investment Banks use optimistic assumptions for revenue growth and margin expansion to "rationalize" a high price for its client's stock. Its another thing entirely to assume a Chinese company has the same level of risk as a U.S. one...