goldman sachs

For all those who read the initial attempt at damage control from Jan Hatzius over the S&P warning yesterday, this follow up from Goldman's Alec Phillips will come as no surprise. To all those who may have missed the prompt note which came out after Mohamed El-Erian FT oped, the below will still not come as a surprise. Bottom line: "Although the US already appears to be on the edge of AAA territory by rating agency criteria and further deterioration of those measures seems likely, policy credibility is likely to be more important than the level of fiscal ratios at any given time. While enactment of major structural reforms to entitlement programs or the tax code look challenging in the next year, today’s announcement from S&P may on the margin increase the likelihood that Congress enacts one or more fiscal rules along with the increase in the debt limit, which we already viewed as a good possibility. The most likely change would be discretionary spending caps, which could apply for multiple years and would be difficult to undo once put in place. A second possibility is some version of the “failsafe” concept that President Obama proposed last week, which would require automatic reductions in spending and “tax expenditures” if by 2014 the debt to GDP ratio has not yet stabilized and is not projected to decline in the second half of the decade." Of course as those who followed our notes during the S&P conference call, to a rational man, none of the above would come as credible, therefore inevitably pushing the US to an AA handle by 2013. Of course, this little piece of theater is once again very much irrelevant in the grand scheme of things: by 2013 we will have much bigger issues on our hands.

Now that Goldman is back in the spotlight following Carl Levin's concluding report, referring Goldman Sachs to the same law enforcement authorities that are overeager to get a job at none other than Goldman (the most recent example of which came yesterday when Bank of America which hired Gary Lynch, a former director of enforcement at the SEC, to head its legal, compliance, and regulatory relations efforts) for misleading investors and perjury, the wave of indignation at the glaringly obvious is once again back in vogue. To wit: on Friday's Andreson Cooper, Matt Taibbi and Eliot Spitzer presented their views on the fact that several years into the biggest ponzi collapse in Wall Street history, stabilized only by the Fed's pledging of trillions in taxpayer capital and the Treasury issuing like amount in debt to prevent the insolvency of Wall Street's corner offices, nobody has still gone to jail. It was actually an oddly open and forthright show. Some of the notable soundbites from the transcript: "Eliot, do you believe Goldman broke the law and lied? - Yes, I do. And I know people are going to say how can you say that as a lawyer? I have read this report. It confirms our worst fears about double dealing, lying. Goldman Sachs has zero, none, nada credibility in my book"....."Tim Geithner, treasury secretary, apparently reported in today's "New York Times" was calling people saying don't bring cases, it will unsettle the markets, so they let these guys go free. Meanwhile, he signed off on $12.9 billion to Goldman to cover a bad bet they made."....."Goldman Sachs was the number one private campaign contributor to Barack Obama's presidential election campaign. It's one of the single biggest campaign contributors to both parties in Congress"..."Anderson, before I sued, went after Merrill Lynch, which was the first case we filed many years back, I was told by their lawyer -- this is a direct quote -- "Be careful, we have powerful friends"...and the kicker: "Do you think the Justice Department will prosecute? Spitzer: If they don't, shame on them. If they don't, the Attorney General should resign if he can't bring this case." And when Holder resigns, he can go work as Goldman's newest General Counsel, the end. Hopefully, unlike last time people got angry, only to promptly lose interest in Wall Street's crimes, this time it actually leads to something.

Eliot Spitzer challenged investment banker Goldman Sachs: "Sue me. You lied to the public. You should be prosecuted". Is Spitzer right?

Lately, there has been a lot of chatter by virtually everyone with some soapbox to stand on, about this and that. That's swell... if mostly irrelevant: by now everyone should be aware that only two charts actually matter, both of which are painfully self-explanatory.

And for today's exercise in surreality, in your best Agent Cooper voice repeat after us: "The margins are not what they seem." Why? Because in his latest Weekly Kickstart, the next incarnation of A Joseph Cohen, David Kostin appears to be channelling David Lynch when he says: "Company-level margins can fall while aggregate margins for the market continue to rise. If high margin stocks grow sales faster than low margin stocks, the index-level margin still expands." We won't even parse the logic of the first sentence. As for the big "if", so that's what Goldman bets its FYE 2011 S&P 1,500 target on - now we know. "The apparent fallacy of composition may be explained by the simple fact that revenue growth matters." See, David, that's why you get paid the big bucks. But it does not end there: "Analysts expect 66% of S&P 500 ex Financials and Utilities stocks will expand margins in 2011." Now that with Brent at nearly $130 makes absolute sense. In other news, we now know who killed Laura Palmer.

The public comment period for the CFTC's proposed position limit rule has come and gone. It should come as no surprise to anyone (and particularly those transfixed by the massive surges in various commodities, among them most certainly gold and silver) that what is at stake here is not some actual position limit definition and subsequent regulation and enforcement (although that most certainly is), but yet another challenge to the klepocratic status quo which naturally prefers the status quo to remain as is, and public interests, which seeing 100% moves in the price of grain, cotton, corn, and other commodities, would obviously prefer to reign in speculative fervor. At the end of the day, Wall Street will find loopholes in whatever the end rule is as it always does, but the polemic on the way there is quite interesting. Which is why having combed through some of the last minute public comment submissions (of which there were 5,561 in total at last check), we present some of the most indicative ones: one the one hand that of Carl "Shitty Deal" Levin, Chair of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, who obviously is for the most prompt implementation of position limits as envisioned in Dodd Frank, and on the other hand institutional money managers and traders such as PIMCO, Morgan Stanley, the World Gold Council, and, naturally, Goldman Sachs (oddly, we have yet to track down the response by one JP Morgan). We present these for our readers' perusal below.

Hmmm...

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced insider trading charges against a Westport, Conn.-based business consultant who has served on the boards of directors at Goldman Sachs and Procter & Gamble for illegally tipping Galleon Management founder and hedge fund manager Raj Rajaratnam with inside information about the quarterly earnings at both firms as well as an impending $5 billion investment by Berkshire Hathaway in Goldman.The SEC’s Division of Enforcement alleges that Rajat K. Gupta, a friend and business associate of Rajaratnam, provided him with confidential information learned during board calls and in other aspects of his duties on the Goldman and P&G boards. Rajaratnam used the inside information to trade on behalf of some of Galleon’s hedge funds, or shared the information with others at his firm who then traded on it ahead of public announcements by the firms. The insider trading by Rajaratnam and others generated more than $18 million in illicit profits and loss avoidance. Gupta was at the time a direct or indirect investor in at least some of these Galleon hedge funds, and had other potentially lucrative business interests with Rajaratnam.

I’ve watched with first amusement, then disgust, and ultimately outrage as various pundits proclaimed Bernanke’s efforts “saved the financial system” or helped the US “weather the storm.” Bernanke did NO such thing. You could train a chimpanzee to hit the “print money” button at the Fed every-time the Fed phone rings with a Wall Street number and get the same results.

Seven months ago, when the horrendous August 6 NFP print set the stage for Jan Hatzius to lower his outlook for the economy (and all the other sellside lemmings to follow suit), resulting in the announcement of QE2 three weeks later at Jackson Hole by our dangerous monetary Dr. Moreau (not our definition: Sean Corrigan's - more on that later), we dubbed an article titled "Real U-3 Unemployment Rate When Adjusted For Labor Force Participation: Around 14%" in which we warned that the unemployment rate presented for public consumption is really one big lie. Fast forward to today, when we now read that the topic of labor force participation, and specifically the massive plunge therein, is now seen by one of the brightest  strategist minds, that of SocGen's Albert Edwards, as "one of the scandals of the last decade." We thoroughly agree. In fact, we are certain that the labor force participation rate is the greatest scam the government is attempting to pull in order to create the impression that QE is working. The threat of this issue being comprehended by the broader population is finally so big that it necessitated Goldman Sachs' Sven Jari Stehn to come out with yet another extremely humiliating apologist piece of drivel, explaining how the labor force participation rate is really not at all concerning and that one should welcome the fact that less people are in the "labor pool", as a percentage of the total population, than at any time in the last 26 years. Nothing could be further from the truth, and in fact it underscores Bernanke's latest Catch 22 - the "lower" the unemployment (U3) rate is, the worse the economy is, as more and more workers get terminally disenchanted with their labor prospects, thereby validating just how ugly the truth behind the scenes truly is.

For anyone following the recent collapse in mortgage applications, the recent "strength" in new and existing home sales is nothing but the latest joke to spin the nth bounce from the bottom as the "this is it" moment which Cramer has been trying to do with disastrous results ever since the summer of 2009. Oddly, reading a recent surprisingly bearish Goldman economic outlook (or not so surprising: it lays out the framework for Goldman to start advocating MBS purchases as part of QE3) piece from Sven Jari Stehn confirms our concerns that any attempt at shining light behind the headlines exposes ever more cockroaches. In "Mortgage Applications Point to Near-Term Home Sales Weakness" Stehn highlights the same issues we have been pounding on the table for months: namely that near contemporaneous plunge in mortgage applications is far more troubling and should be given far more impact than new, pending and existing home sales in any one prior period. Goldman summarizes: "The number of mortgage applications, however, has declined sharply in recent weeks. Specifically, the volume of mortgage applications for purchase—reported in a timely fashion every week by the Mortgage Bankers Association—declined by a cumulative 14% during the last three weeks. Does the decline in mortgage applications suggest that home sales are set to decline again in coming months?" In short the answer is yes, and the full note below explains it. Additionally, we have provided some technical perspectives from Peak Theories which predict a 7% drop based on recent chart patterns. Needless to say, we believe the drop will be far greater when all is said and done, now that the Bernank has given up on attempting to keep mortgage rates low and only cares about boosting stock prices.

We can debate whether Wall Street owes society a fiduciary duty. But the Vampire Squid Clause is an affront to the efficiencies and benefits of capitalism. As my boss told me on my first day as an investment banker, “Don’t get a big head. You’re nothing more than a glamorized used-car salesman.” In other words, all I did was repackage and sell interests in used businesses. Goldman is doing just that when they connect prospective investors with Facebook. Nothing more, nothing less.

Pssst.... Hey, did you see those latest numbers out of Goldman yet?

Per the WSJ's Dennis Berman: "What a black eye for Lloyd & Co." Does this mean that not even Goldman is allowed to come up with innovative financial "schemes" any more? At least the SEC is spared the indignity of wristslapping its master. In other news first Apple, now Facebook... It is not too late for Sack-Frost to put up a provisional backstop POMO for tomorrow. The 45 minutes time slot starting at 1:15pm looks pretty vacant.

From the McCrudden complaint, which cites a letter sent by the Alnbri CEO to a CFTC lawyer T.M.: "You can tell that fucking corrupt piece of Goldman Sachs shit [G.G.] I am coming after him as well. Oh, and your "ban"... shove them up your fucking ass you corrupt mother fucker....Make sure you all show up with [T.M.] and that fucking corrupt fucking midget [G.G.] when you serve me papers. I have something ready for you all." It appears that Vincent sure was passionate about his beliefs... And certainly not a fan of Gary Gensler.