goldman sachs

goldman sachs

Goldman Sachs Still Expects Hillary To Win The Election, But...

For most of the year, Sec. Clinton has been seen as more likely to win the election than any recent candidate at the same point in the race, but the election is now seen to be roughly as uncertain as the average election since 1992... but the recent tightening has reopened a potential path to victory for Mr. Trump, albeit a narrow one.

Politics As Usual Is Dead

In terms of finance and communications, politics as usual - political candidates and narratives mandated by the parties' Ruling Elites and the MSM - is dead. We will all look back in 2026 and wonder why the recognition of this reality took so long.

VIX Hedges Building Fast After Scare-less October

Octobers are supposed to be the scary, and not only because of Halloween. Market observers like to point out how much more volatile October is relative to other months. Not so in 2016 as Goldman notes this was the 4th lowest average VIX since records began. However, the last few days have seen hedgers extremely active ahead of next week's election (despite one of the lowest levels of S&P 500 realized volatility recorded).

Don’t Sweat The Election. The Next Crisis Is Already Baked Into The Cake

From here on out politics are only relevant at the extremes - major war, corruption scandal, martial law etc. Short of that, the fiat currency/fractional reserve banking world has such institutional momentum that it really won’t matter whether Trump is picking on bankers and building his wall or Clinton is protecting Wall Street and raising taxes. Debt will keep soaring as it has under every president since Reagan and jobs will disappear as machines replace people, thus bringing the end of the current system inexorably closer.

Hillary And The Ghosts Of Watergate

If there is any lesson to be learned from the ghosts of Watergate, it is that the big-money support of a leader who has lost the ability to deliver the goods crumbles very quickly as the endgame unfolds.

Frontrunning: November 1

  • There is a bubble in articles about China's bubbles: Asset Bubbles Threaten China’s Economy (WSJ)
  • Hillary Clinton’s Wall Street Fundraising Benefited From Loophole In Federal Anti-Corruption Rule (IBT)
  • Clinton and Trump Prepare for Possibility of Election Overtime (BBG)
  • Trump Leads Clinton by 1 Point in New Poll as Enthusiasm Declines (ABC)
  • Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia (NYT)

Goldman Warns Oil Headed To Low $40 On "Declining Probability Of OPEC Deal"

Overnight, Goldman's Damien Courvalin released another note that will make oil bulls nervous, in which he reiterated his base case that "growing discord between OPEC producers suggests a declining probability of reaching a deal on November 30" and predicted that a "weakening oil fundamentals warrant oil prices in the low US$40s/bbl in our view if OPEC is unable to deliver a convincing agreement."

Global Bond Selloff Resumes; Stocks Rise Following Strong Chinese Data

With October, the worst month for stocks since January, now in the history books S&P futures are eager to telegraph that the streak of five consecutive will end, with a modest gain of 0.3% in overnight trading, coupled with mixed global markets as the global bond selloff returned after strong Chinese economic data prompted concerns about rising global inflation.

American Dream, Revisited

No acts, deeds, crimes (the 2008 financial crisis), political events (the WikiLeaks emails showing virtually no distinction between the «nonprofit» Clinton cash machine, what’s private and what’s public, the obsessive pursuit of personal wealth, and the affairs of the state) seem to have real consequences. Immunity, impunity, corruption, speculation - we veer towards a state of zero responsibility (think Goldman Sachs). So, automatically, we yearn for an event of maximum consequence, a «fatal» event to repair that scandalous non-equivalence.

Previewing This Week's Most Interesting Central Bank Decision (No, Not The Fed)

With Yellen paralyzed with fear and certain to change nothing just 6 days before the election, a far more interesting central bank meeting due later this week, is that of the BOJ which addresses the market on November 1, and which over the past few months has set the global bond market on edge with its attempts to steepen the JGB yield curve which in turn led to the VaR-shocked early September stock selloff,