According to Mario Draghi, portfolio manager of the world's biggest hedge fund, it is not his gargantuan balance sheet equal to 36% of the eurozone GDP, nor the $14 trillion in global central bank liquifity that will be responsible for the next market crash, but that Donald Trump's deregulation of the banking industry has "sown the seeds of the next financial crisis."
In a relatively quiet session, which may see US traders sleep in a bit after last night's Superbowl thriller, European and Asian shares rose ahead of Mario Draghi’s testimony at the European Parliament, while US equity futures were fractionally higher (up 0.1% to 2,293) after stocks jumped the most in a week, as traders assessed the trajectory for interest rates while scrutinizing every new Trump tweet.
Beware of what may be coming next. We already know the establishment has a plan to blame President Trump for the next financial crisis, and now there are moves being made that will support that narrative.
Since Donald Trump was elected President of The United States, on a platform of 'draining the swamp' and focusing on the needs of 'Main Street', it is perhaps interesting that Wall-Street-darling Goldman Sachs is the best-performing stock (in The Dow) and Main-Street-mainstay Wal-Mart is the worst-performing.
"One month into the year, the balance of risks is somewhat less positive for three reasons. First, the difficulty congressional Republicans have had in moving forward on Obamacare; Second, while bipartisan cooperation looked possible following the election, the political environment appears to be as polarized as ever; Third, some of the recent actions by the Trump Administration could be disruptive for financial markets and the real economy." - Goldman Sachs
As previewed earlier today, moments ago President signed two executive aimed at starting the process of rolling back the regulatory system put in place after the financial crisis. Among the targets are rules that protect against predatory lenders, force brokers to lower fees for retirees and ban proprietary trading.
Following today's jobs report, the market's reaction to the unexpectedly strong January payrolls visualized in the charts below, is straightforward: the disappointing wage growth is an indication that the Fed may not hike rates for quite a bit longer than expected, and will likely will be forced to reduce its rate hike expectations from 3 to 2 (in line with the market) or fewer if wage growth continue to stagnate.
President Trump will order a sweeping review of the Dodd-Frank Act rules enacted in response to the 2008 financial crisis, signing an executive action Friday designed to significantly scale back the regulatory system put in place in 2010. Trump also will halt another of Obama’s regulations known as the "fiduciary rule", hated by the financial industry, that requires advisers on retirement accounts to work in the best interests of their clients.
Despite ADP's blowout print this week, consensus January payrolls is 175k (somewhat below the 6- and 12-month averages), but Goldman Sachs expects a higher 200k print thanks to a combination of lower-than-usual year-end layoffs, favorable weather effects, and further improvement in labor market indicators.
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