Merrill

Next week marks the beginning of May and the potential for a regime change in US Treasuries. As BofAML's Macneil Curry notes, historically the month of May coincides with a jump in Treasury volatility. A seasonal analysis of implied Treasury volatility using the MOVE Index (Merrill Option Volatility Estimate) shows that May is traditionally the second strongest monthly of the year after December. With the MOVE Index also showing signs of basing, and 10yr Treasury yields stuck in an increasingly unsustainable narrow range, this May is unlikely to disappoint. While the long term trend for US 10s suggests that Treasury yields should climb higher, in the near term we prefer to take a wait and see approach, watching for a break of the range extremes at 2.825% and 2.591%.

• Russia raises interest rates to 7.5% (FT)
• Shanghai to Allow Raw Material Exchanges in Trade Zone (BBG)
• US, Japan Fail to Clinch Trade Deal (WSJ)
• 'We don't have a magic wand', says ECB's Constancio (Reuters)
• Tokyo Inflation Quickens to Fastest Since 1992 (BBG)
• Demand for Home Loans Plunges (WSJ)
• EU banks urged to grasp chance to raise capital (FT)

• Ukraine forces kill up to five rebels, Putin warns of consequences (Reuters)
• Obama to Russia: More sanctions are 'teed up' (AP)
• Vienna Banks Bemoan Russia Sanctions Testing Cold War Neutrality (BBG)
• GE’s $57 Billion Cash Overseas Said to Fuel Alstom Deal (BBG)
• GM posts lower first-quarter profit after recall costs (Reuters)
• Apple Stock Split Removes Obstacle to Inclusion in Dow (BBG)
• U.S. regulators to propose new net neutrality rules in May (Reuters)

• Ukraine's leaders say have U.S. backing to take on 'aggressors' (Reuters)
• Goldman Sachs Stands Firm as Banks Exit Commodity Trading (BBG)
• Obama reassures Japan, other allies on China as Asia trip begins (Reuters)
• China Challenges Obama’s Asia Pivot With Rapid Military Buildup (BBG)
• Google’s Stake in $2 Billion Apple-Samsung Trial Revealed (BBG)
• No bubble here: Numericable Set to Issue Record Junk Bond (WSJ)
• 'Bridgegate' scandal threatens next World Trade Center tower (Reuters)
• Supreme Court Conflicted on Legality of Aereo Online Video Service (WSJ)
• Barclays May Cut 7,500 at Investment Bank, Bernstein Says (BBG)

“Flash Boys” is a book written for Hollywood instead of the history books or policy makers.  Stay tuned for the movie.  

• Ukraine Accord Nears Collapse as Biden Meets Kiev Leaders (BBG)
• Novartis reshapes business via deals with GSK and Lilly (Reuters)
• Moscow Bankers See Fees Slide 67% as Ukraine Crisis Grows (BBG)
• Why ECB's QE will be Ukraine's fault: Draghi Gauges Ukraine Effect as ECB Tackles Low Inflation (BBG)
• As Phone Subsidies Fade, Apple Could Be Hurt (WSJ)
• Amazon Sales Take a Hit in States With Online Tax (BBG)
• Ford Speeds Up Succession Plan: Mark Fields, Auto Maker's No. 2, Seen Replacing Alan Mulally as CEO Ahead of Schedule (WSJ)
• U.S. force in Afghanistan may be cut to less than 10,000 troops (Reuters)
• IBM End to Buyback Splurge Pressures CEO to Boost Revenue (BBG)

• Putin playing the long game over Russian kin in Ukraine (Reuters)
• U.S.-Russia Relations Come Full Circle After Ukraine (WSJ)
• Japan PM makes offering to Yasukuni Shrine, angers China, South Korea (Reuters)
• In Gold Miners' Talks, Scale Is Crucial: Combined Barrick-Newmont Would Be Able to Trim Costs (WSJ)
• SEC Said to Weigh Shining Light on Brokers’ Stock Routing (BBG)... and protmply unweigh it
• Exelon Beating Facebook in S&P 500 After Valuation Scare (BBG)
• Court Case May Help Define 'Insider Trading' (WSJ)
• Spanish banks face tough rivalry in small companies bet (Reuters)

An explanation of how fractional reserve banking infringes on everyone’s freedom.

• Putin Doesn't Rule Out Sending Troops (WSJ)
• Japan Cuts Economic View on Tax Rise (WSJ)
• No "harsh weather" in Chipotle restaurants where comp store sales rose 13.4% (PR)
• No sanctions for you: EU sanctions push on Russia falters amid big business lobbying (FT)
• Consumer Spending on Health Care Jumps as Obamacare Takes Hold (BBG)
• China Seen Cracking on Property Controls (BBG)
• Google, IBM results raise questions about other tech-sector companies (Reuters)
• California city evacuation lifted after military ordnance found (Reuters)
• For Obama, Standoff With Moscow Jumbles Plans at Home and Abroad (WSJ)

• Ukraine Says Russia Exporting ‘Terror’ Amid Eastern Push (BBG)
• Civil War Threat in Ukraine (Reuters)
• China Shoe Plant Strike Disrupts Output at Nike, Adidas Supplier (BBG)
• Mt Gox to liquidate (WSJ)
• Ex-Co-Op Bank Chairman Charged With Cocaine Possession (BBG)
• Goldman Sachs plans to jump-start stock-trading business (WSJ)
• Credit Suisse first-quarter profit falls as trading tumbles (Reuters)
• U.K. Unemployment Rate Falls to Five-Year Low (BBG)
• Lawmakers Back High-Frequency Trade Curbs in EU Markets Law (BBG)
• Yahoo's growth anemic as turnaround chugs along (Reuters)
• Spain ETF Grows as Rajoy Attracts Record U.S. Investments (BBG)

• Ukraine forces move against separatists (FT)
• China GDP Gauge Seen Showing Deeper Slowdown (BBG)
• China Is Losing Its Taste for Gold (WSJ)
• Regulators Weigh Curbs on Trading Fees (WSJ)
• Obama, Putin Talk as Unrest Roils Eastern Ukraine (WSJ)
• Japan PM talks with BOJ chief, does not push for easing (Reuters)
• BRICS countries to set up their own IMF (RBTH)
• IMF Members Weigh Options to Sidestep U.S. Congress on Overhaul (WSJ)
• Zebra to Buy Motorola Solutions Unit for $3.45 Billion (BBG)
• Chinese Thunder God Herb Works as Well as Pain Therapy (BBG)

• Three dead in shootings at Kansas Jewish centers; man to face charges (WSJ)
• Sanctions Blowback in Russia Targets Burgers to Movies (BBG)
• Deadly Virus's Spread Raises Alarms in Mideast (WSJ)
• China group buys $6bn Glencore Peru copper mine (BBG)
• Iran lodges complaint against United States over U.N. envoy ban (Reuters)
• Russian assets down sharply on Ukraine conflict fears (Reuters)
• ECB comments knock euro, but not much (Reuters)
• World-Leading $25 Hourly Wage Roils Swiss Businesses (BBG)

It’s perplexing that analysts are perplexed by the rout.

• Sensitive Market Data Leaked After Government Phone Call (WSJ)
• This is a actual Bloomberg headline: China Fake Data to Skew More Export Numbers (BBG)
• This is another actual BBG headline: U.S. as Global Growth Engine Putt-Putts Instead of Purring (BBG)
• Ukraine wants to buy European gas to boost energy security (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Profit Falls 19% on Trading, Mortgage Declines (BBG)
• Record Europe Dividends Keep $2.8 Trillion From Factories (BBG)
• Why is Goldman shutting down Sigma X: SEC eyes test that may lead to shift away from 'dark pools' (Reuters)
• Ebola Outbreak Empties Hotels as West Africa Borders Closed (BBG)
• Australian PM says searchers confident of position of MH370's black boxes (Reuters)
• Gross Says El-Erian Should Explain Reason for Exit (BBG)

So from MF Global's "vaporized" commingled client assets to Basel's "evaporated" toughened derivatives rules, the banks are indeed "very happy." And now back to perpetuation the illusion that the system is stable.