Merrill

• New Normal headlines: Global stocks up on hopes of China policy easing (Reuters)
• China inflation eases to five-year low (BBC)
• U.S. Lawmakers Agree on $1.1 Trillion Spending Bill (WSJ)
• U.S. Braced for Blowback as CIA Report Lays Bare Abuses (BBG)
• CIA tortured, misled, U.S. report finds, drawing calls for action (Reuters)
• CIA Made False Claims Torture Prevented Heathrow Attacks (BBG)
• Oil Resumes Drop as Iran Sees $40 If There’s OPEC Discord (BBG)
• OPEC Says 2015 Demand for Its Crude Will Be Weakest in 12 Years (BBG)
• Greek yield curve inverted as politics raise default fears (Reuters)

• China’s Stocks Sink Most Since 2009 as Turnover Jumps to Record (BBG)
• Greek Stocks, Bonds Tumble (WSJ)
• China tightens LGFV funding screws (BBG)
• Crude Rebounds From Five-Year Low Amid Shale-Oil Spending Curbs (BBG)
• Sexual threats, other CIA methods detailed in Senate report (Reuters)
• U.S. Takes Security Precautions Overseas Ahead of CIA Report (WSJ)
• Light-Speed Treasury Trading Governed by Rules Dating to 1998 (BBG)
• Delhi to ban all internet taxi firms after Uber rape claim (Reuters)
• Supreme Group Fined $389 Million for Overcharging Pentagon (WSJ)

• Welcome to the recovery:
  • Euro zone warning hits stocks, currency as oil plumbs depths (Reuters)
  • Japan GDP Worse Than Initially Reported (WSJ)
  • China trade data well below expectations (BBC)
  • German industrial production frustrates forecasts (FT)
• Oil Extends Retreat With European Stocks as Dollar Gains (BBG)
• California police, protesters clash again after 'chokehold' death (Reuters)
• Ruble’s Rout Is Tale of Failed Threats, Missteps (BBG), not to be confused with "Yen's Rout Is Tale Of Keynesian Success, Prosperity"
• Uber banned from operating in Indian capital after driver rape (Reuters)

• Marchers again swarm New York to protest death at hands of police (Reuters)
• N.Y. Police Chokehold Evidence to Stay Secret as Protests Spread (BBG)
• Obama to announce choice of Ash Carter for defense chief Friday: White House (Reuters)
• Boehner vows to avoid government shutdown with help from Democrats (Reuters)
• Brent Heads for 5-Year Low as Saudi Discounts Spur Competition (BBG)
• Will Cheap Oil Lead to Big Mergers? (WSJ)
• Bank of Russia Ramps Up Ruble Support (WSJ)
• China Bad-Loan Level Seen Understated After Economy Slows (BBG)
• Uber Snags $41 Billion Valuation (WSJ)

• Thanks Fed: Meet the high schooler who made $300K trading penny stocks under his desk (Verge)
• Protesters block NY streets after officer cleared in chokehold death (Reuters)
• U.S. Plans Probe of New York Police Chokehold Death (BBG)
• Sharpton Leads Civil-Rights Meeting on Chokehold Decision (BBG)
• Staten Island on Edge Over Grand Jury Decision In Death of Eric Garner (WSJ)
• Draghi Tests Speed Limit as ECB Awaits Stimulus Evidence (BBG)
• European Stocks Approach Seven-Year High Before Draghi Statement (BBG)
• Britain targets multinationals that try to dodge taxes (Reuters)
• Oil Trains Hide in Plain Sight (WSJ)

• Fall of the Bond King: How Gross Lost Empire as Pimco Cracked (BBG)
• Hong Kong 'Occupy' leaders surrender as pro-democracy protests appear to wither (Reuters)
• Ashton Carter, Ex-Pentagon No. 2, Emerges as Obama Favorite for Defense Secretary (WSJ)
• Oil, the Ruble and Putin Are All Headed for 63. A Russian Joke -- for the Moment (BBG)
• New U.S. oil and gas well November permits tumble nearly 40 percent (Reuters)
• Swedish government on brink of collapse (AJ)
• China says Britain has no moral responsibility for Hong Kong (Reuters)
• Indian Labs Deleted Test Results for U.S. Drugs, Documents Show (BBG)

• Moody’s Downgrades Japan’s Credit Rating (WSJ)
• China Factory Gauge Drops as Shutdowns Add to Slowdown (BBG)
• Euro zone factory growth stalls in November as new orders sink (Reuters)
• Espírito Santo Faces Money-Laundering Investigations (WSJ)
• Oil at $40 Possible as Market Transforms Caracas to Iran (BBG)
• Hong Kong warns protesters not to return after clashes close government HQ (Reuters)
• Bond Secrets Decoded 9,539 Miles From Wall Street in Lot (BBG)
• Ruble Rally Turns to Rout as Fortunes Tied to Sinking Oil (BBG)
• Loans Made in Blink as Banks, Funds Vie for LendingClub Clients (BBG)

The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer. While we highlighted the risk of a near-term decline in the oil price in our July newsletter, we failed to adjust our portfolio sufficiently to reflect such a scenario. This month we identify the major implications of our revised energy thesis.  The reason oil prices started sliding in June can be explained by record growth in US production, sputtering demand from Europe and China, and an unwind of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. The world oil market, which consumes 92 million barrels a day, currently has one million barrels more than it needs.... Large energy companies are sitting on a great deal of cash which cushions the blow from a weak pricing environment in the short-term. It is still important to keep in mind, however, that most big oil projects have been planned around the notion that oil would stay above $100, which no longer seems likely.

"... Shortly after returning from a trip in late 2009, Farmer erased electronic notes, in Microsoft Word format, that were stored on thumb drives, Zip drives and a shared drive at Citadel, agents wrote in a summary of one of the interviews with him. Farmer also threw away his handwritten notes because that was his normal practice and because they were incriminating, agents wrote. Farmer got rid of e-mails as well, according to their summary. “This,” they wrote, “wiped the slate clean."

• Grand jury expected to resume Ferguson police shooting deliberations (Reuters)
• PBOC Bounce Seen Short Lived as History Defies Bulls (BBG)
• Home prices dropped in September for the first time since January (HousingWire)
• UPS Teaches Holiday Recruits to Fend Off Dogs, Dodge NYC Taxis (BBG)
• US oil imports from Opec at 30-year low (FT)
• Hedge Funds Bet on Coal-Mining Failures (WSJ)
• Putin Woos Pakistan as Cold War Friend India Buys U.S. Arms (BBG)
• How the EU Plans to Turn $26 Billion Into $390 Billion (BBG)
• The $31 Billion Bet Against Brazil’s New Finance Minister (BBG)

• They go all in: China’s PBOC Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2012 (BBG)
• And all in-er: ECB's Draghi throws door to quantitative easing wide open as recovery wanes (Reuters)
• Global Markets Rally: ECB Head Says Central Bank Is Ready to Expand Stimulus Program After China Cuts Rates (WSJ)
• Obama unveils U.S. immigration reform, setting up fight with Republicans (Reuters)
• U.S. increasing non-lethal military aid to Ukraine (Reuters)
• Russia warns U.S. against arms to Ukraine as Biden due in Kiev (Reuters)
• Ukraine slashed gold holdings in October, Russia added more - IMF (Reuters)
• Abe Dissolves Japan’s Lower House of Parliament (WSJ)

• Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Calls Snap Election (WSJ) - as repeatedly priced in...
• Flash Boys Raising Volatility in Wild New Treasury Market (BBG)
• Not Greece again: Greek Bailout Review Stalls as Troika Demands Final Steps (BBG)
• Iran uses China bank to transfer funds to Quds-linked companies (Reuters)
• Porn Mags With Free Madrid Theater Tickets in Tax Protest (BBG)
• Hong Kong, China stocks ease on profit-taking after stock connect launch (Reuters) - Hang Seng down 500 points in past 2 days
• Halliburton Mega-Deal Sealed by CEOs Over Coke and Coffee (BBG)
• Wall Street to Reap $316 Million From Day of Mega Deals (BBG)
• Mass murderer Charles Manson gets marriage license, state says (Reuters)

This may not quite be the blow-off top in the merger bubble as companies rush to frontrun the ECB and buy whatever still isn't nailed, but it is getting close. Because while earlier today Baker Hughes announced it would accept the Halliburton offer to buy it unchallenged in a $35 billion transaction leading many to wonder just how much lower the price of oil is still set to drop, moments ago the Allergan "White Knight" swooped from up on high, and as had also been leaked in recent weeks, Actavis agreed to buy the botox- maker which Ackman and Valeant had been so eagerly chasing for months in order to let the roll-up pharma pad its non-GAAP books with another 2-3 years of pro forma "synergies" add backs.  This means that between Halliburton and Actavis, today we have had the first $100 billion "Merger Monday" in over a decade.

• "The hate us for our..." Americans’ Cellphones Targeted in Secret U.S. Spy Program (WSJ)
• Ukraine and Russia take center stage as leaders gather for G20 (Reuters)
• Moscow and Kiev trade accusations; U.S. warns Russia against escalation (Reuters)
• Heartland Central Banker Calls Asset Bubbles Top Concern (BBG)
• U.S. Said to Give Banks December Deadline in FX Probe (BBG)
• Series of Failures Enabled White House Breach, Report Finds (WSJ)
• Yen plumbs seven-year trough on likely Japan sales tax delay (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Chase Bankers Said to Lead Moscow Departure (BBG)

• Banks to Pay $3.3 Billion in FX-Manipulation Probe (BBG)
• Symbolic being the key word: U.S., China sign symbolic emissions plan, play down rivalry (Reuters)
• Europe (so really Russian sanctions) is the new "snow in the winter" - Carney Sees Europe Stagnation Impact as Growth Outlook Cut (BBG)
• Eurozone Industrial Output Points to Weak Third Quarter Growth (WSJ)
• Not everyone around Abe is insane: Kuroda Ally Flags Warning on Delaying Sales-Tax Increase (BBG)
• Hong Kong to scrap daily yuan conversion limit to boost stock investment (Reuters)
• Barclays Falls After FX Settlement Delay Reduces Discount (BBG)
• Some unhappy Yahoo investors asking AOL for rescue (Reuters)