Merrill

•  'Life-threatening' cold bites Midwest, heads east (Reuters)
• Gold Analysts Get Most Bullish in a Year After Rout (BBG)
• Asian Stocks Fall Most in Three Weeks on China Services (BBG)
• Angela Merkel in skiing accident, cancels visits (Reuters)
• High-Speed Traders Form Trade Group to Press Case (WSJ)
• Toyota and Honda post record China sales (FT)
• China Shadow Banking Risks Exposed by Local Debt Audit (BBG)
• J.P. Morgan to Pay Over $2 Billion to U.S. in Penalties in Madoff Case (WSJ)
• Corruption trial of Trenton, N.J., mayor starts Monday (Reuters)
• Car Makers at Consumer Electronics Show Tout Ways to Plug Autos Into the Web (WSJ)

Either the Volcker Rule is making Wall Street's menu of investment choices so unbearably limited, or traditional assets are so overpriced Wall Street won't even touch them with other people's money, but when it comes to allocating capital the smartest conmen in the room are coming up with some truly unorthodox products. Such as investing in ex-convicts in the form of 2000 newly released prisoners.

December 23rd, 1913 is a date which will live in infamy.  That was the day when the Federal Reserve Act was pushed through Congress.  Many members of Congress were absent that day, and the general public was distracted with holiday preparations.  Now we have reached the 100th anniversary of the Federal Reserve, and most Americans still don't know what it actually is or how it functions.  But understanding the Federal Reserve is absolutely critical, because the Fed is at the very heart of our economic problems. Since the Federal Reserve was created, there have been 18 recessions or depressions, the value of the U.S. dollar has declined by 98 percent, and the U.S. national debt has gotten more than 5000 times larger.  This insidious debt-based financial system has literally made debt slaves out of all of us, and it is systematically destroying the bright future that our children and our grandchildren were supposed to have. The truth is that we do not have to have a Federal Reserve.  The greatest period of economic growth in U.S. history was when we did not have a central bank.  If we are ever going to turn this nation around economically, we are going to have to get rid of this debt-based financial system that is centered around the Federal Reserve.  On the path that we are on now, there is no hope.

• Apple, China Mobile sign long-awaited deal to sell iPhones (Reuters)
• U.S. growth hopes help shares shrug off China money market jitters (Reuters)
• Rule Change on Health Insurance Rattles Industry (WSJ), Obamacare's signup deadline on Monday has its exceptions (Reuters)
• Tale of Two Polish Mines Shows Biggest EU Producer’s Woes (BBG)
• Probes See U.K. Market Manipulation Reports Rise 43% (BBG)
• Shoppers Grab Sweeter Deals in Last-Minute Holiday Dash (BBG)
• Banks Mostly Avoid Providing Bitcoin Services (WSJ)
• Secret Handshakes Greet Frat Brothers on Wall Street (BBG)

"...as an investor, nearly always if you buy panic and you know what you are doing, and then hold on for a number of years, you are going to make a lot of money.

You also have to be sure that your crisis or panic is not the end of the world, though..."

• MOAR: BOJ Said to See Significant Room for More Bond Purchases (BBG)
• Meltdown Averted, Bernanke Struggled to Stoke Growth (Hilsenrath)
• New Mortgages to Get Pricier Next Year (WSJ)
• Republicans to Seek Concessions From Obama on Debt Limit (BBG)
• Hunting for U.S. arms technology, China enlists a legion of amateurs (Reuters)
• Jury Begins Deliberating in Case of SAC Portfolio Manager (WSJ)
• BP to Write Off $1 Billion on Failed Well (WSJ)
• Rajan Unexpectedly Keeps India Rates Unchanged to Support Growth (BBG)
• Thai protesters say they will rally to hound PM from office (Reuters)
• SEC Brings Fewer Enforcement Actions, Slows Early-Stage Probes (WSJ)

• Fed’s $4 Trillion Assets Draw Lawmaker Ire Amid Bubble Concern (BBG)
• Ex-Goldmanite Fab Tourre fined more than $1 million (WSJ)
• EU Banks Shrink Assets by $1.1 Trillion as Capital Ratios Rise (BBG)
• Japan to bolster military, boost Asia ties to counter China (Reuters)
• China condemns Abe for criticizing air defense zone (Reuters)
• Insider-Trading Case May Hinge on Phone Call (WSJ)
• Republicans Gird for Debt-Ceiling Fight (WSJ)
• Mario Draghi pushes bank union deal (FT)
• German Coalition Plans More Pension Money (WSJ)
• Oil Supply Surge Brings Calls to Ease U.S. Export Ban (BBG)

Malodorous taper emanations and bankruptcies are a toxic mix for munis

• Tough Question for Fed: Time to Act? (Hilsenrath )
• Merkel Begins Third Term Strengthened by SPD Partner Backing (BBG)
• Wary of Roma, Europe cold-shoulders its new eastern workmates (Reuters)
• New Medicines Emerge, but Few Blockbusters (WSJ)
• SIP in the crosshairs: U.S. Exchanges Near Deal for Infrastructure Upgrade (WSJ)
• Secret Inside BofA Office of CEO Stymied Needy Homeowners (BBG)
• AIG Said to Near Sale of Plane Unit to AerCap (BBG)
• Inside the Saudi 9/11 coverup (NYPost)
• Russian Bank Chief Weighs Firings as Costs Absorb Revenue (BBG)
• Video Boom Forces Verizon to Upgrade Network (WSJ)
• Chinese Manufacturing Slows (AP)

"Twas the Friday before the Friday before Christmas..." and as the year end rapidly approaches the mainstream consensus is that 2014 will be another bouyant year for the stock market despite the impact of a potential Federal Reserve tapering.  The optimistic view is an easy one.  While it isn't popular, or fun, to look at the non-bullish view it is nonetheless important to consider the risks that could potentially lead to a larger than expected loss of investment capital.  There is one simple truth about financial markets and investing:  what goes up must come down.   It is the downside risk that is most damaging to long term investment returns.  Therefore, this week's "Things To Ponder" is a sampling of views and thoughts on what to watch out for as we enter the new year.

• Presidential Task Force Recommends Overhaul of NSA Surveillance Tactics (WSJ)
• Monte Paschi's Largest Shareholder Says It Will Vote Against $4.1 Billion Capital Increase (WSJ)
• SAC Reconsiders Industry Relationships—and Its Name (WSJ)
• Icahn’s Apple Push Criticized by Calpers as ‘Johnny Come Lately’  (BBG)
• In Yemen, al Qaeda gains sympathy amid U.S. drone strikes (Reuters)
• Missing American in Iran was on unapproved mission (AP)
• In China, Western Companies Cut Jobs as Growth Ebbs (WSJ)
• U.S. lays out steps to smooth Obamacare coverage for January (Reuters)
• Las Vegas Sands Said to Drop $35 Billion Spanish Casino Proposal (BBG)
• Twitter Reverts Changes To Blocking Functionality After Strong Negative User Feedback (TechCrunch)

• J.P. Morgan to Pay Over $1 Billion to Settle U.S. Criminal Probe Related to Madoff (WSJ)
• Ford board aims to pin down CEO Mulally's plans (Reuters)
• Raising Minimum Wage Is a Bad Way to Help People (BBG)
• Japan Lawmakers Demand Speedy Pension Reform (WSJ)
• EU reaches landmark deal on failed banks (FT)
• In which Hilsenrath repeats what we said in August: Fed Moves Toward New Tool for Setting Rates (WSJ)
• Senators Vow to Add to Iran Economic Sanctions in 2014 (BBG)
• Centerbridge in $3.3bn LightSquared bid (FT)
• Banks, Agencies Draw Battle Lines Over 'Volcker Rule' (WSJ)

• Wall Street Exhales as Volcker Rule Seen Sparing Market-Making (Bloomberg)
• GM to End Manufacturing Down Under, Citing Costs (WSJ)
• U.S. budget deal could usher in new era of cooperation (Reuters)
• Ukraine Police Back Off After Failing to Stop Protest (WSJ)
• First Walmart, now Costco misses (AP)
• Dan Fuss Joins Bill Gross Shunning Long-Term Debt Before Taper (BBG)
• China New Yuan Loans Higher Than Expected (WSJ)
• China bitcoin arbitrage ends as traders work around capital controls (Reuters)
• Blackstone’s Hilton Joins Ranks of Biggest Deal Paydays (BBG)

• U.S. set to adopt Volcker rule to curb bank trading gambles (Reuters) After vote, lawsuits likely next hurdle for Volcker rule (Reuters)
• U.S. Congress budget talks could produce Tuesday deal, aides say (Reuters)
• Wealthy Go Frugal This Holiday Amid Uneven U.S. Recovery (BBG)
• Tearful Thai PM urges protesters to take part in election (Reuters)
• Fed’s Bullard Sees Higher QE Taper Odds as Labor Market Improves (BBG)
• Coeure Says ECB Would Offer More LTROs Only When Banks Can Lend (BBG)
• Inside China's Super-Sterile Chicken Farms (WSJ)
• Mandela Service Rivals JFK’s as Leaders Meet in South Africa (BBG)
• China data defy slowdown forecasts (FT), and of course the word is "data"
• Cold, ice grip U.S. as more snow to blanket East (Reuters)

Technically, "High Yield" is no longer the appropriate name for the riskiest credit issuance since the average coupon has declined to where Investment Grade used to trade in the years before the New Normal. It is therefore only appropriate that as part and parcel of this record high yield bond issuance surge levering the riskiest companies to the gills with low interest debt, that there is also a scramble between underwriters to become as competitive as possible. And, sure enough, as Bloomberg Brief reports, "the underwriting fees disclosed to Bloomberg on U.S. junk bond deals average 1.276 percent for the year to date, the lowest since our records began. The prior low was set in 2008, when fees averaged 1.4 percent." 2008... that was when the last credit bubble burst on unprecedented demand for junk bonds: we are confident the bubble apologists will find some other metric with which to convince everyone that reality, and the Fed's Stein, have it all wrong.