Merrill

The third stage of bull markets, the mania phase, can last longer and go farther that logic would dictate.  However, the data suggests that the risk of a more meaningful reversion is rising.  It is unknown, unexpected and unanticipated events that strike the crucial blow that begins the market rout.  Unfortunately, due to the increased impact of high frequency and program trading, reversions are likely to occur faster than most can adequately respond to.  This is the danger that exists today. Are we in the third phase of a bull market?  Most who read this article will say "no."  However, those were the utterances made at the peak of every previous bull market cycle.

• China to Ease One-Child Policy (WSJ), China announces major economic and social reforms (Reuters)
• Consumers line up for launch of PlayStation 4 (USAToday)
• Trust frays between Obama, Democrats (Politico)
• Yellen Stands by Fed Strategy  (Hilsenrath)
• Hero to zero? Philippine president feels typhoon backlash (Reuters)
• Brussels warns Spain and Italy on budgets (FT)
• Moody’s Downgrades Four U.S. Banks on Federal Support Review  (BBG)
• CIA's Financial Spying Bags Data on Americans (WSJ)
• Germany Digs In Against Risk Sharing in EU Bank-Failure Plan (BBG)
• Bill Gates wants Norway's $800 billion fund to spend more in Africa, Asia (RTRS)

• Yellen to defend Fed's ultra-easy monetary policy (Reuters)
• Japan growth slows on global weakness (WSJ)
• Eurozone third-quarter growth falters (FT)
• Fed Debates Its Low-Rate Peg (Hilsenrath)
• Yellen: Economy Still Needs Fed Aid (WSJ)
• ‘Obamacare’ launch fiasco rouses sceptics (FT)
• DoubleLine's Gundlach says U.S. equities 'only game in town' (Reuters)
• Indian Inflation Exceeding Estimates Adds Rate-Rise Pressure (BBG)
• HUD Said to Fail in Bid to Sell $450 Million of Mortgages (BBG)
• Boeing machinists reject labor deal on 777X by 67 percent (Reuters)

Five years have passed since the onset of what is sometimes called the Great Recession. While the economy has slowly improved, there are still millions of Americans  leading lives of quiet desperation: without jobs, without resources, without hope. Who was to blame?

"The government, writ large, had a hand in creating the conditions that encouraged the approval of dubious mortgages. It was the government, in the form of Congress, that repealed Glass-Steagall, thus allowing certain banks that had previously viewed mortgages as a source of interest income to become instead deeply involved in securitizing pools of mortgages in order to obtain the much greater profits available from trading. It was the government, in the form of both the executive and the legislature, that encouraged deregulation..."

- Judge Jed Rakoff

• China Pledges Greater Role for Market in Economy (WSJ), China vows 'decisive' role for markets, results by 2020 (Reuters)
• China expected to cut growth target to 7% (FT)
• World Trade Center Tower Debuts in Manhattan Leasing Test (BBG)
• Job Gap Widens in Uneven Recovery (WSJ)
• Khamenei’s conglomerate thrived as sanctions squeezed Iran (Reuters)
• Swiss referendum on wages of high earners stirs debate (FT)
• Obama to Nominate Massad to Head CFTC (WSJ)
• Japan readies additional $30 billion for Fukushima clean-up (Reuters)
• Target Fills Its Cart With Amazon Ideas (WSJ)
• Shadow banks reap Fed rate reward (FT)

• Philippines Left Reeling in Wake of Storm (WSJ)
• Khamenei controls massive financial empire built on property seizures (RTRS)
• Race to Bottom Resumes as Central Bankers Ease Anew (BBG)
• U.S. Postal Service to deliver Amazon packages on Sundays  (LA Times)
• Obama Stocks Among Best After Re-Election as Rally Tested (BBG)
• Health-Law Rollout Weighs on Obama's Ratings, Agenda (WSJ)
• Twitter in Celebrity Spat With Facebook as Rivalry Builds (BBG)
• Iran deputy industry minister shot dead (AFP)
• Financier of Taliban-linked group shot dead in Pakistan (RTRS)
• Obama: The Lonely Guy (Vanity Fair)

• Fed Anxiety Rises as QE Raises Risk of Loss With Political Cost (BBG)
• Iran Nuclear Deal Expected as Early as Friday (WSJ)
• Israel rejects mooted interim Iran nuclear deal, Kerry heads to talks (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Banker Backed $200 Million Madoff Loan in 2008 (BBG)
• Unleashing the food nazis - FDA Says Trans Fats Aren't Safe in Food (WSJ)
• Draghi Aggression Shows Pledges Backed by Rate Surprise (BBG)
• S&P Cuts France's Credit Rating by One Notch to Double-A (WSJ)
• S&P criticises France’s high tax rates for stifling growth (FT)
• Payroll Gains in U.S. Probably Cooled Amid Government Shutdown (BBG)

• Twitter's IPO to Make Market Debut (WSJ); Twitter Raises $1.82 Billion, Pricier Value Than Facebook (BBG)
• Worried Senators Press Obama on Health Law (WSJ)
• Greenspan Says Yellen Was His Guide to Economics Research at Fed (BBG)
• European Central Bank seen holding rates despite inflation tumble (Reuters)
• Wall St. Bonuses Over All Are Predicted to Rise 5 to 10% (NYT)
• Cautious consumers seen curbing U.S. economic growth (Reuters)
• China Grants U.S. Investors Indirect Access to Its Stock Markets (WSJ)
• Higher Tax Rates Give Top U.S. Earners Year-End Headaches (BBG)
• Iran Loses Nuclear Leverage as World Ignores Export Drop (BBG)
• NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly in the running for JPMorgan job (Post)

• Christie Sets Himself Up for Run in 2016 (WSJ)
• De Blasio Elected Next New York City Mayor in Landslide (WSJ)
• Hilsenrath: Fed Study: Rate Peg Off Mark (WSJ)
• MF Global Customers Will Recover All They Lost (NYT) - amazing what happens when you look under the rug
• Virginia, Alabama Voter Choices Show Tea Party Declining (BBG)
• Explosions kill 1, injure 8 in north China city (Reuters)
• Toyota boosts full-year guidance as weak yen drives revenues (FT)
• Starbucks wants to recruit 10,000 vets, spouses to its ranks (Reuters)
• U.S. Economy Slack Justifies Stimulus, Top Fed Staff Papers Show (BBG)
• Israel set to become major gas exporter (FT)

• China premier warns against loose money policies (Reuters)
• Brussels forecasts tepid Eurozone growth (FT)
• SAC Case Began With Informant’s Tips on Cohen, Rajaratnam (BBG)
• Dirty Munich Home’s Nazi Loot Estimated at $1.35 Billion (BBG)
• Mortar hits Vatican embassy in Damascus, no casualties (Reuters)
• India Launches Mars Mission (WSJ)
• Lael Brainard to leave Treasury, heading to Fed (FT)
• U.S. Takes Aim at 'Forced' Insurance (WSJ)
• Wife of Jeff Bezos attacks book about Amazon (FT)
• Fall of Brazil’s Batista embarrasses President Dilma Rousseff (FT)
• The One Thing People Still Really Like About BlackBerry (BusinessWeek)

• Investors are stampeding into initial public offerings at the fastest clip since the financial crisis (WSJ)
• Kerry hails disgruntled Saudi Arabia as important U.S. ally (Reuters)
• SAC Capital prepares for a second life (FT)
• BlackBerry's Fate Goes Down to the Wire (WSJ)
• Dutch Gamble on U.S. Housing Debt After Patience Wins (BBG)
• U.S. Wants Broad Divestitures From AMR, US Airways (WSJ)
• Tensions with allies rise, but U.S. sees improved China ties (Reuters)
• China berates foreign media for Tiananmen attack doubts (Reuters)
• China manufacturers squeezed as costs rise (FT)
• European Borders Tested as Money Is Moved to Shield Wealth (NYT)
• Zurich Probe Finds No ‘Undue Pressure’ Put on Late CFO (BBG)

• US admits surveillance on foreign governments ‘reached too far’ (FT)
• He must be so proud: Obama halted NSA spying on IMF and World Bank headquarters (RTRS)
• Obamacare website gets new tech experts; oversight pressure grows (Reuters)
• R.B.S. to Split Off $61 Billion in Loans Into Internal ‘Bad Bank’ (NYT)
• Draghi’s Deflation Risk Complicates Recovery (BBG)
• Abenomics: Nissan slashes full-year profit forecast 15% (FT)
• Credit Suisse Dismisses London Trader Over 'Unusual Trading' Losses (WSJ)
• RBS avoids break-up with 38 billion pounds 'internal bad bank' (Reuters)
• Twitter Said to Attract More Than Enough Interest for IPO (BBG)

• US Blasts Germany's Economic Policies (WSJ)
• Citigroup, JPMorgan Said to Put Currency Dealers on Leave (BBG)
• Watchdog: Syria Destroys Chemical-Arms Equipment (WSJ)
• Kynikos Alumni Start Hedge Fund Betting on Declining Stocks (BBG)
• China state media calls for stern action after Tiananmen attack (RTRS)
• IMF warns of financial shock risk to Africa (FT)
• Insurers Oppose Obamacare Extension as Danger to Profits (BBG)
• BoJ content to ignore Fed tapering and go its own way (FT)
• U.S. attorney wants DOJ to take civil action against BofA (RTRS)
• NSA Fallout Hits AT&T's Ambitions In Europe (WSJ)

• Morning Humor from Hilsenrath - Fed Balance Sheet Not Seen Returning to Normal Until at Least 2019 (WSJ)
• Health Policies Canceled in Latest Hurdle for Obamacare (BBG)
• Was there anything RBS was not manipulating? RBS Said to Review Currency-Trading Practices Amid Probe (BBG)
• Sebelius to Testify Before House Panel (WSJ)
• And more humor: Spain's Statistics Institute Confirms End of Recession (WSJ) ... and now we await the triple dip
• Finally some credible reporting on Yellen's "foresight" - Yellen feared housing bust but did not raise public alarm (Reuters)
• Japan government moves closer to Fukushima takeover (FT)
• China to step up own security after new NSA allegations (Reuters)
• Blackstone Vies With Goldman in Spain Rental Housing Bet (BBG)
• In new U.S. budget talks, Republican proposal has flipped the script (Reuters)

• U.S. spy chiefs face Congress amid spying rift with Europe (Reuters)
• Deutsche Bank income hit by €1.2bn of legal provisions (FT)
• China's second tapering attempt fails: China central bank seeks to reassure money markets after rate spike (Reuters)
• UBS Takes Action Against Staff in Foreign-Exchange Probe (WSJ)
• Saudi Arabia frees man jailed for Mohammad tweets (Reuters)
• Tax Revolts Hit Hollande as Farmers, Soccer Clubs Protest (BBG)
• German parliament to meet over U.S. spying scandal (Reuters)
• Google Nears Smartwatch Launch (WSJ)
• How to end gridlock in DC? Pork projects (Reuters)
• UBS ordered to increase capital reserves (FT)