Merrill

Merrill
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Frontrunning: January 23





  • Saudi Arabia’s New King Probably Will Not Change Current Oil Policy (BBG)
  • Saudi King’s Death Clouds Already Tense Relationship With U.S. (WSJ)
  • Oil Pares Gains as New Saudi King Says Policies Stable (BBG)
  • Kuroda Says BOJ to Mull Fresh Options in Case of More Easing (BBG)
  • U.S. pulls more staff from Yemen embassy amid deepening crisis (Reuters)
  • Putin Said to Shrink Inner Circle as Hawks Beat Billionaires (BBG)
  • A Few Savvy Investors Had Swiss Central Bank Figured Out (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: January 22





  • ECB to decide on bond-buying plan to revive euro zone (Reuters)
  • Draghi Is Pushing Boundaries of Euro Region with QE Program (BBG)
  • Investors Wonder Whether ECB Will Do Enough (WSJ)
  • Treasuries Drop With Bunds Before ECB; U.S. Futures Rise (BBG)
  • European shares hit seven-year high (Reuters)
  • At least eight civilians killed in shelling of Ukrainian trolleybus (Reuters), both sides blame each other
  • OPEC Will Blink First in Battle With Shale Drillers, Poll Shows (BBG)
  • China Injects $8 Billion Into Banking System (WSJ)
  • New York says Barclays not cooperating in 'dark pool' probe (Reuters)
 
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Kaisa Default Contagion: China's $245bn Corporate Bond Market "Is Too Complacent"





As we detailed previously, the first USD-denominated Chinese corporate bond default last week - of developer Kaisa Group - signals considerably deeper problems in China's economy as one manager noted, "everyone is rethinking risk right now." As Bloomberg reports, Chinese companies comprised 62% of all U.S. dollar bond sales in the Asia-Pacific region ex Japan last year, issuing $244.4 billion and that huge (and illiquid) market "has been too complacent," according to one credit strategist who warned, investors would be “rational to adopt a cautious approach in view of the fact that anything can happen, anywhere, anytime. It would be irrational to continue thinking that after Kaisa none of the companies will see a similar fate."

 
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Frontrunning: January 21





  • Obama Targets Income Gap in Address That Shapes 2016 Election (BBG)
  • Republicans Reject Obama’s Main Economic Proposals (WSJ)
  • Senate’s Shelby Says White House Bank Tax Is Dead on Arrival (BBG)
  • Is Dollar Next? Investors Reassess After Swiss Shock: Currencies (BBG)
  • Bank of Japan Cuts Price Forecast, Maintains Record Stimulus (BBG)
  • Pound Weakens After BOE Policy Makers Drop Call to Raise Rates (BBG)
  • Putin not flinching on Ukraine despite economic crisis (Reuters)
  • Indonesia will not make public full preliminary AirAsia crash report (Reuters)
  • Party Hasn't Stopped for Russians at Davos Even With Ukraine Sanctions (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: January 20





  • Obama to focus on middle class in State of Union address (Reuters) - all 4 of them?
  • European Stocks Buoyed by ECB Hopes (WSJ)
  • China's 2014 economic growth misses target, hits 24-year low (Reuters)
  • Federer on Swiss Franc Shock: "Does It Mean I've Got to Win Now?" (BBG)
  • First-time buyers help Christie’s reach record sales (FT)
  • So it was the NSA? U.S. Spies Tapped North Korean Computers Prior to Sony Hack (BBG)
  • Why Chinese Developer Kaisa's Default Risk Has Money Managers Spooked (BBG)
  • Morgan Stanley Misses Estimates on Drop in Bond-Trading Revenue (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: January 13





  • Oil Drops Below $45; U.S. Stockpiles May Speed Collapse (BBG)
  • Pound Drops as Traders Write Off Higher Rates on Inflation Slump (BBG)
  • Oil prices down again as UAE defends holding production (Reuters)
  • The Politics Behind the ECB's Threat to Cut Greece Funding (BBG)
  • France dispatched thousands of police and military personnel to protect synagogues and Jewish schools, as the government warned of continued terror threats after three days of deadly violence (WSJ)
  • Chinese Car Dealers Find Days of ‘Printing Money’ Ending (BBG)
  • Gold Rises to Highest Since October as U.S. Rate Outlook Weighed (BBG)
  • Divers retrieve crashed AirAsia jet's cockpit voice recorder (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: January 12





  • Earnings Pessimism Jumps as Oil Threatens S&P 500 Growth (BBG)
  • It’s Amateur Hour in the Booming Chinese Stock Market (BBG)
  • France mobilizes 10,000 troops at home after Paris shootings (Reuters)
  • European Stocks Gain With S&P 500 Futures While Oil Drops (BBG)
  • Nasdaq Looks to Operate Dark Pools for Banks (WSJ)
  • This Guy Called Bonds in ’14. You Listening This Time? (BBG)
  • Paris attacks boost support for Dutch anti-Islam populist Wilders (Reuters)
  • OPEC price war in Asia intensifies as oil falls below $50 (Reuters)
 
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Price Discovery And Emerging Markets





... things like a 50%+ drop in oil prices happen. Which at some point will lead more people to wonder what the real numbers are. For emerging nations, those numbers will not be pretty for 2015. They’re going to feel like they’re being thrown right back into the Stone Age. And they’re not going to like that one bit, and look for ways to express their frustration. Volatility is not just on the rise in the world of finance. It also is in the real world that finance fails to reflect. At some point, the two will meet again, and Wall Street will mirror Main Street. It will make neither any happier. But it’ll be honest.

 
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Frontrunning: January 9





  • Police Surround Paris Terror Suspects Near CDG Airport (BBG)
  • ECB Said to Study Bond-Purchase Models Up to 500 Billion Euros (BBG)
  • How OPEC Weaponized the Price of Oil Against U.S. Drillers (BBG)
  • German Industrial Production Falls Amid Plunge in Energy Output (BBG)
  • Car Loans See Rise In Missed Payments (WSJ)
  • Jim O'Neill threatens he will replace BRICs with ICs (BBG)
  • Oil heads for seventh weekly loss as supply glut drags (Reuters)
  • Armed man takes hostage in kosher grocery in Paris (AFP)
  • Janus Chairman Didn’t Know Details of Gross’s Investment (WSJ)
  • Kaisa Bondholders Dream of White Knight as Default Becomes Real (BBG)
 
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Chinese Developer Kaisa On Verge Of $5Bn Default; Who's Next?





“You never know where the skeletons in the closet are or what company will be next," warns one Chinese credit analyst and as the CNY30 billion indebted Chinese developer Kaisa Group (that we initially discussed here) admits it can’t say if it plans to meet a bond deadline today as a local news website said lenders took steps to preserve assets. The builder of residential communities and shopping centers must pay about $26 million in interest on its 10.25 percent 2020 debentures today (which appears unlikely) and its bonds have crashed to below 30c. The big question, as Bloomberg notes, is who's next?

 
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Frontrunning: January 8





  • French policewoman killed in shoot-out, hunt deepens for militant killers (Reuters)
  • The Bold Charlie Hebdo Covers the Satirical Magazine Was Not Afraid to Run (BBG)
  • Evans Says Fed Shouldn’t Rush Rate Rise as Inflation Undershoots (BBG)
  • Oil holds above $51 as traders search for floor (Reuters)
  • Gross Helps Fuel New Fund With His Own Cash (WSJ)
  • ECB warns Greek funding access hinges on keeping bailout (Reuters)
  • Greece Jolts QE Juggernaut as ECB Gauges Deflation Risk (BBG)
  • Analysts Say There's No Telling How Low Oil Prices Could Go (BBG)
  • Scientists find antibiotic that kills bugs without resistance (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: January 7





  • Twelve shot dead in Paris (Reuters)
  • Eurozone Consumer Prices Fall for First Time Since 2009 (NYT)
  • Euro's Drop is a Turning Point for Central Banks Reserves (BBG)
  • How $50 Oil Changes Almost Everything (BBG)
  • Mercedes-Benz Moving U.S. Headquarters to Atlanta (WSJ)
  • Greek 10-Year Bond Yields Exceed 10% for First Time Since 2013 (BBG)
  • How Even Dairy Farmers Get Squeezed by Rigging in the $5.3 Trillion Currency Market (BBG)
  • AirAsia jet tail found underwater, black box may be close (Reuters)
  • Italy Unemployment Rises to New High (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: January 6





  • Average 10-year yield of U.S., Japan and Germany dropped below 1% for the first time ever: Free Money in Bond Markets Shows Global Economy Still Struggling (BBG)
  • Brent falls below $52 as oil hits new five and a half year lows (Reuters)
  • China Fast-Tracks $1 Trillion in Projects to Spur Growth (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia Raises Price of Main Oil Grade for Asian Buyers (BBG)
  • Oilfield Writedowns Loom as Crude Slump Guts Drilling Values (BBG)
  • Biggest Oil-Rig Drop Since 2009 Spells Tough Year Ahead (BBG)
  • CIA says its inspector general is resigning at end of month (Reuters)
  • Pipeline IPOs Climb on Demand for Returns Immune to Oil (BBG)
  • Natural Gas No Savior for Investors Seeking Oil Refuge (BBG)
  • Euro zone economy ended 2014 in poor shape (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: January 5





  • Economists sceptical ECB bond-buying would revive eurozone (FT)
  • Indonesia naval captain says may have located missing plane's tail section (Reuters)
  • Oil hits five and a half year low under $55 (Reuters)
  • Samaras Warns of Euro Exit Risk as Greek Campaign Starts (BBG)
  • The death of active investing: Vanguard Sets Record Funds Inflow (WSJ) - thank you Fed
  • Oil Downturn Has Many Wondering How Lone Star State Will Weather a Bust (WSJ)
  • Hollande Says France Must Exceed 1% Economic Growth to Spur Jobs (BBG)
 
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David Rosenberg Has A Question For His Clients





David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch and currently of Gluskin Sheff, who famously flip-flopped from being a self-described permabear to uber-bull last summer for the one reason that has yet to manifest itself in any way, shape or form, namely declaring that wage inflation as imminent (it wasn't, but perhaps Mr. Rosenberg was merely forecasting the trajectory of his own wages) and generally an end to deflation, has a rhetorical question for his paying clients, as asked in his letter to investors from January 2. To wit: "THIS IS WHAT PASSES FOR ANALYSIS?" We too follow up with an identical question not only for Mr. Rosenberg's clients, but for our own readers.

 
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