Merrill

Merrill
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 25





  • Fed Pushes Into ‘Uncharted Territory’ With Record Assets (BBG)
  • Next up in the currency wars: Korea - Samsung Drops on $2.8 Billion Won Profit-Cut Prediction (BBG)
  • China Warns ‘Hot Money’ Inflows Possible on Easing From Abroad (Bloomberg)
  • BOJ Shirakawa affirms easy policy pledge but warns of costs (Reuters)
  • Merkel Takes a Swipe at Japan Over Yen (WSJ)
  • Wages in way of Abe’s war on deflation (FT)
  • Italian PM under fire over bank crisis (FT)
  • Senior officials urge calm over islands dispute (China Daily)
  • Spain tries to peel back business rules (FT)
  • Rifts Over Cyprus Bailout Feed Broader Fears (WSJ)
  • Soros Says the Euro Is Here to Stay as Currency War Looms (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 24





  • When the cash runs out: Nokia to Omit Dividend for First Time in 143 Years (BBG)
  • Passing Debt Bill, GOP Pledges End to Deficits (WSJ)
  • Japan logs record trade gap in 2012 as exports struggle (Reuters)
  • so naturally... Yen at 100 Per Dollar Endorsed by Japan Government’s Nishimura (BBG)
  • Japan rejects currency war fears (FT)
  • In Amenas attack brings global jihad home to Algeria (Reuters)
  • Investors grow cagey as Italy election nears (Reuters)
  • Mafia Victim’s Son Holds Key to Bersani Winning Key Region (BBG)
  • Bernanke Seen Pressing On With Stimulus Amid Debate on QE (BBG)
  • U.S. to lift ban on women in front-line combat jobs (Reuters)
  • Red flags revealed in filings of firm linked to Caterpillar fraud (Reuters)
  • Apple Sales Gain Slowest Since ’09 as Competition Climbs (BBG)
  • Spanish Jobless Rate Hits Record After Rajoy’s First Year (BBG)
  • North Korea Threatens Nuclear Test to Derail U.S. Policies (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

What Really Goes On In China





From a valuation perspective, Chinese equities do not, at first glance, look to be a likely candidate for trouble. The PE ratios are either 12 or 15 times on MSCI China, depending on whether you include financials or not, and do not scream 'bubble'. And yet, China has been a source of worry for GMO over the past three years and continues to be one. China scares them because it looks like a bubble economy. Understanding these kinds of bubbles is important because they represent a situation in which standard valuation methodologies may fail. Just as financial stocks gave a false signal of cheapness before the GFC because the credit bubble pushed their earnings well above sustainable levels and masked the risks they were taking, so some valuation models may fail in the face of the credit, real estate, and general fixed asset investment boom in China, since it has gone on long enough to warp the models' estimation of what "normal" is. Of course, every credit bubble involves a widening divergence between perception and reality. China's case is not fundamentally different. In GMO's extensive discussion below, they have documented rapid credit growth against the background of a nationwide property bubble, the worst of Asian crony lending practices, and the appearance of a voracious and unstable shadow banking system. "Bad" credit booms generally end in banking crises and are followed by periods of lackluster economic growth. China appears to be heading in this direction.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 17





  • Obama's Gun Curbs Face a Slog in Congress (BBG)
  • Euro Area Seen Stalling as Draghi’s Pessimism Shared (BBG)
  • China Begins to Lose Edge as World's Factory Floor (WSJ)
  • EU Car Sales Slump (WSJ)
  • Fed Concerned About Overheated Markets Amid Record Bond-Buying (BBG)
  • Australia Posts Worst Back-to-Back Job Growth Since ’97 (BBG)
  • Abe Currency Policy Stokes Gaffe Risk as Amari Roils Yen (BBG)
  • Japan Opposition Party Won’t Back BOJ Officials for Governor (BBG)
  • Fed Reports Point to Subdued Economic Growth (WSJ)
  • China Set to Exit Slowdown by Boosting Infrastructure (BBG)
  • Greece not out of woods, must stick to reforms: finance minister (Reuters)
  • Russian Rate Debate Flares Up as Cabinet Seeks Growth (BBG)
 
Vitaliy Katsenelson's picture

We Are Still Going Sideways





 I read that Rich Bernstein, former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, is very optimistic about US stocks; he believes we are at a point similar to where the market was in 1982 – at the beginning of the 1982-2000 secular bull.  After you’ve gone through my slides, you’ll understand why it is so hard for me to share Rich’s excitement.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 15





  • White House delays 2014 budget after "fiscal cliff" standoff (Reuters) - And Senate will pass this... never?
  • Amari Signals Limits to Abe’s Campaign to Weaken Yen (BBG)
  • Draghi’s Bond Rally Masks Debt Doom Loop Trapping Spain (BBG)
  • Obama backs gun limits, concedes tough fight ahead (AP)
  • Bernanke to Weigh QE Costs as Fed Assets Approach Record (BBG)
  • Japan to Sell Debt Worth 7.8 Trillion Yen to Pay for Stimulus (BBG)
  • France more than doubles forces in Mali (FT) and yet...
  • Malian Rebels Take Town and Vow to Avenge French Attack (NYT)
  • China’s Li Calls for Patience as Government Works to Reduce Smog (BBG)
  • EU berates China over steel subsidies (BBG)
  • Number of working poor families grows as wealth gap widens (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 11





  • WSJ picks up on excess "deposits over loans" theme, reaches wrong conclusion: Wads of Cash Squeeze Bank Margins (WSJ)
  • SAC Is Bracing for Big Exodus of Funds (WSJ)
  • Japan unveils Y10.3tn stimulus package (FT)
  • China’s Inflation Accelerates as Chill Boosts Food Prices (BBG)
  • Berlusconi Denies Responsibility for Italy Crisis (BBG)
  • Fed hawks worry about threat of inflation (Reuters)
  • And then the lunatics: Fed easing may not be aggressive enough: Kocherlakota (Reuters)
  • BOJ Likely to Take Easing Steps (WSJ)
  • Draghi Shifts Crisis Gear as ECB Focuses on Economy Inbox (BBG)
  • Argentina Bondholders Lose Bid to Get State-Court Review (BBG)
  • Regulators Find Major Euribor Shortcomings (WSJ)
  • Basel III Punishes Dutch Over Risk That Isn’t (BBG)
  • Bondholders in Crosshairs as Merkel Travels to Cyprus (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 10





  • Obama Picking Lew for Treasury Fuels Fight on Budget (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank Bank Made Huge Bet, and Profit, on Libor (WSJ)
  • Spain Beats Maximum Target in First 2013 Debt Sale (BBG) - In other news, the social security fund is now running on negative?
  • "Icahn is also believed to have taken a long position in Herbalife" (NYPost) - HLF +5% premarket
  • Lew-for-Geithner Switch Closes Era of Tight Fed-Treasury Ties (BBG)
  • Turkey Beating Norway as Biggest Regional Oil Driller (BBG)
  • Greek State Firms are Facing Closure (WSJ)
  • Draghi Spared as Confidence Swing Quells Rate-Cut Talk (BBG)
  • China’s Yuan Loans Trail Estimates (BBG)
  • SEC enforcement chief steps down (WSJ)
  • CFPB releases new mortgage rules in bid to reduce risky lending (WaPo)
  • Japan Bond Investors Expect Extra Sales From February (BBG)
 
Reggie Middleton's picture

AIG Has Every Right & Responsibility To Sue The US For Excessive Interest Payments On It's Bailout! That's Right, I Said It!!!





AIG shareholders aren't just paying interest on its own bailout, they are paying (paid) hefty interest charges on the bailout of the most connected entity in the history of finance, the VAMPIRE SQUID, Goldman Sachs!

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 8





  • London Quantitative Hedge Funds Report Second Year of Losses (BBG)
  • Berlusconi Forms Alliance in Comeback Bid (WSJ)
  • Japan to Buy ESM Bonds Using FX Reserves to Help Weaken Yen (BBG)
  • Japan Mulling BOJ Accord Linked to Employment, Mainichi Says (BBG)
  • Samsung Expects Record Operating Profit (WSJ)
  • Boeing 787 Dreamliner Fire Probed, Blaze Adds to Setbacks (BBG)
  • BOJ's Shirai: Open to Firmer Inflation Target (WSJ)
  • HSBC N.J. Client Admits Conspiracy in Offshore Tax Case (BBG)
  • Lampert to Assume CEO Role at Sears (WSJ)
  • Abe prepares fresh stimulus measures (FT)
  • U.S. Set for Biggest State-Local Jobs Boost Since 2007 (BBG)
  • Pakistan Seen Needing IMF Bailout as Rupee Drops Before Vote (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 7





  • Secret and Lies of the Bailout (Rolling Stone)
  • Banks Win 4-Year Delay as Basel Liquidity Rule Loosened (BBG)
  • Hedge Funds Squeezed With Shorts Beating S&P 500 (BBG)
  • Bankruptcy regime for nations urged (FT)
  • Is the Fed Doing Enough—or Too Much—to Aid Recovery (WSJ)
  • Cracks widen in US debt ceiling debate (FT)
  • McConnell Takes Taxes Off the Table in Debt Limit Negotiations (BBG)
  • Abe Seen Spending 12 Trillion Yen to Boost Japan’s Economy (BBG)
  • Monti, Berlusconi Spar on Taxes in Weekend Media Barrage (BBG)
  • Cameron Sets New Priorities for U.K. Coalition (BBG)
  • Defiant Assad Rules Out Talks With Rebels (WSJ)
  • Korea Seen Resisting Rate Cut as Won Threatens Exports (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 4





  • Just like last year: A Postholiday Letdown for Retailers (WSJ)
  • Obama Fights Republicans on Debt as Investors Seek Growth (BBG)
  • Housing a Sweet Spot for U.S. Economy as Recovery Expands (BBG)
  • House chooses Boehner as speaker again despite dissent (Reuters)
  • Backlash pushes Republicans to seek cuts (FT)
  • Jobs Lost Hit 5 Million With Rigged Currencies (BBG)
  • Chavez still has "severe" respiratory problem (Reuters)
  • Paris promises flurry of economic reforms  (FT)
  • Investors Sour on Pro Stock Pickers (WSJ)
  • Abe moves to ease South Korea tensions (FT)
  • Wildfires Hit Australia Amid Worst Heatwave in Decade (BBG)
  • Monti attacks ‘extremist’ rivals (FT)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 3





  • Obama Signs Bill Enacting Budget Deal to Avert Most Tax Hikes (BBG)
  • GOP Leaders Take Political Risk With Deal (WSJ)
  • Basel Becomes Babel as Conflicting Rules Undermine Safety (BBG)
  • Portugal Faces Divisions Over Austerity Measures (WSJ)
  • The Fiscal Cliff Deal and the Damage Done (BBG)
  • Cliff deal threatens second term agenda (FT)
  • Deposits stable in euro zone periphery in November (Reuters)
  • Fresh Budget Fights Brewing (WSJ)
  • China Poised for 2013 Rebound as Debt Risks Rise for Xi (BBG)
  • Who's Afraid of Italian Elections?  (WSJ)
  • China services growth adds to economic revival hopes (Reuters)
  • Asian Economies Show Signs of Strength (WSJ)
  • Japan’s Aso Targets Myanmar Markets Amid China Rivalry (Bloomberg)
 
lemetropole's picture

Big Picture Thinkers And Silver





You truly have to be mentally challenged if you follow the gold/silver market action and cannot appreciate something is very amiss, as per the confused Mitsui gold people, as brought to your attention the other day.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: December 24





  • Global Currency Tensions Rise (WSJ) - in other words, when everyone eases to infinity, nobody eases
  • EU to give Spain, France more time to cut deficit (Reuters) - But not because their economies are not "recovering" fast enough, oh no.
  • As we expected, Grupo Bimbo considering a bid for Hostess' snack cakes and bread brands (NY Post)
  • Time for bus-control: Eleven children killed in latest Chinese bus crash (Reuters)
  • Greece Should Write Off Billions of Overdue Taxes, Report Says (BBG) - not all taxes in perpetuity?
  • India clamps down on gang-rape protests, PM appeals for calm (Reuters)
  • But Meredith Whitney said... Push for Cheaper Credit Hits Wall (WSJ)
  • For Greece, last major austerity package, says eurozone official (Kathimerini)...  "unless there is another one"
  • Americans Miss $200 Billion Abandoning Stocks (BBG) ... and two flash crashes... and $15 trillion in artificial central bank props
  • Goldman Sachs Takes Long View Over Payouts (FT)
  • Cliff Would Strike Low Incomes Hard (WSJ)
  • Afghan policewoman kills US police adviser (AP)
  • For Sale in Japan: Electronics Assets (WSJ)
 
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