Eclectica

Eclectica

Advice From The Trader Who Made $1 Billion In 1929...

“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It was always my sitting.

Hugh Hendry: "We Are Running A Trumpian Portfolio"

  • In Europe we anticipate further duress in the political commitment to the European project as the success of Trump’s economic stimulus plan keeps US growth humming
  • The combination of Trumpian economics and Japanese 10-year nominal yields being trapped at zero by the Bank of Japan should mean the yen continues to weaken.
  • And finally, there are Chinese trades which generate positive carry should the status quo persist yet remain long volatility should pressure on the renminbi intensify

Hugh Hendry Interviewed On His "Eureka Moment" Trade Of The Day, QE, China, The Dollar And Much More

In a recent interview with Macro Voices, Hugh Hendry is asked about the trade he has on in his fund, to which the Scotsman says that his team recently had a “eureka moment” and figured out how to design a trade, which has a negative carry when viewed in simple terms, such that they preserve the asymmetric of risk/reward while converting it to a positive-carry trade by adding another “European sovereign component to the trade”.

"The System Simply Isn't Working" - Hugh Hendry Warns Of 1930s-Style "Dramatic Fulcrum Point" In Europe

"...we have the precedent from a much earlier time (the 1930s) when the defection of just one member from a currency union caused the system to unwind rapidly. And we can clearly sense the seeds of another popular political revolt in other member countries; a flurry of upcoming elections and referendums provides an immediate catalyst...We believe we are approaching a dramatic fulcrum point in public opinion in Europe."

Hugh Hendry: "If China Devalues By 20% The World Is Over, Everything Hits A Wall"

"Tomorrow we wake up and China has devalued 20%, the world is over. The world is over. Euro breaks up. The world is over. The euro breaks up. Everything hits a wall. There's no euro in that scenario. The US economy, I mean everything hits a wall! Everything hits a wall! It's a 'Mad Max' movie, right. OK, China gets to be the king in 'Mad Max' world. How appealing is that?"

The Bubble Deflates – And Crash Risk Rises

We already suspected in mid 2013 (worrying about the market far too early as it has turned out in hindsight) that there were parallels to what happened in the late 1990s bull market, specifically near its end in the year 2000. However, in the meantime, even more such parallels have become noticeable.

The Best And Worst Performing Hedge Funds In 2015

Any year in which two of the best performing hedge funds are two of our old-time favorites, the aptly named Keynes Leveraged Quantitative Strategies and even more aptly named Tulip Trend Fund, you know is going to be one of "those" years. Only this time joining them at the top after the first quarter is also the Russian Prosperity Fund, while making an unexpected and welcome appearance in the top 10 is none other than everyone's favorite outspoken, if rather timid in recent years, scot: Hugh Hendry's Eclectica, which has returned 14% YTD.

Why From China's Biggest Bear, Hugh Hendry Became One Of Its Biggest Bulls

Considering that Chinese equities are the best performing market in USD terms (second only, oddly enough, to Russia) in 2015, one can see why after a disappointing 2012 and 2013, and modest 2014, Hendry has hit 2015 out of the park with a bang, generating a 10.6% return in the first two monthes of the year. So is Hendry still bullish on China's stock market prospects?  Why yes, and then some. But is he is contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian? Does he see something in China that nobody else does? Or is he simply right... or wrong, as the case may be? We will let readers decide.