Monetization

Monetization

Trump Or No Trump - Why The Next 8 Years Will Be The Worst Economic Period In US History

Regardless who was chosen as president for the next two terms, 80% of the population growth in the US will come from 65+yr/olds. This is the inverse from Bill Clinton's presidency which was the benefactor of the strongest demographic and population changes. The Fed has been dropping rates ever since to incentivize the decelerating growth among the young to spend more... but the population growth to consume(r) our way out of this debt bubble is never coming.

What Donald Trump's Proposed Tax Cut Means For You

Now that Trump is president, both individual and corporate tax-payers are taking a second look at Trump's proposed tax regime to see how it will impact their bottom line. Here is a quick primer.

KKR Calls The Top: PE Giant Selling Distressed Debt It Bought Earlier This Year

“We are in a very significant monetization cycle, particularly in more of the distressed investments that we made,” said Nat Zilkha, who oversees the 40-year-old firm’s credit investments, adding that “we got involved in some situations in energy and coal and other commodities earlier in the year, and those have played out quite well -- frankly faster than we thought.”

RBC: "That Is VaR Crushing DV01 Destruction At Its Finest"

The absolute focus overnight / today is “core” macro though, as global developed market rates are being re-priced “risk manager style,” particularly with EGBs under MAJOR pressure as the buyside is caught wrong-footed (as I type, Slovak 10Y +7.2bps, Denmark 30Y +9.4bps, Netherlands 30Y +9.9bps, Finland 30Y +10.1bps, German 30Y +9.9bps, Austria 30Y +9.3bps…and even front-end seeing outsized moves with the Belgian 2Y +2.2bps).  That is VaR crushing DV01 destruction at its finest. 

Trump "Truthers" Versus Hillary's "Hysterically Hyperventilating Hypocrites"

One can measure the validity of Trump’s utterances by the volume of squeals emanating from the pigs he’s stuck. Judging from the deafening din on this one, Trump scored a bullseye. If America’s faith in its elections is undermined, as so many hysterically hyperventilating hypocrites claim, it won’t be because of anything Donald Trump says or does, but because the racketeers rig elections and not all the people stay fooled all the time.

"The Game Is Up" - Why Exporters Are In Double Trouble

Most of the worlds largest exporters are facing declining domestic populations (0-64yr/olds) and demand.  But now these exporters are also facing the prospect of declining global demand as the core population among the world's primary importers is set to peak.

Canaries 'In Extremis'

Nobody “important” will admit it until after the election, but the resumption of the depression is at hand.