To paraphrase John F. Kennedy, if the aristocrats make peaceful and necessary change impossible, they will make violent resistance inevitable. It’s not a war they can win, but if it’s a war they are too foolish and arrogant to avoid, bring it on.
Despite Bernanke's insistence to keep his mouth shut about what transpired during his historic meeting, the answer leaked out anyway: Koichi Hamada, a close adviser of the prime minister, said Mr. Bernanke may have discussed helicopter money with Japanese officials he met with during his visit, including BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda and Ministry of Finance policy makers.
Pretend, for a minute, that your country responds to the bursting of a credit bubble by borrowing unprecedented amounts of money and using it to prop up banks and construction companies. This doesn’t work, so you create record amounts of new money and push interest rates into negative territory in an attempt to devalue your currency. But this - amazingly - doesn’t work either. Your currency soars and the inflation you’d hoped to generate never materializes. Now what? Is there even anything left to try, or is it simply time to stand back and let the current system melt down?
The robo-machines and perma-bulls are at it again, delivering another volumeless dead-cat bounce in a market that has churned sideways for 600 days now. Nevertheless, there is a reason for the churn and there is a culprit behind the abortive rallies.
During Friday’s bloodbath we heard a CNBC anchor lady assuring her (scant) remaining audience that Brexit wasn’t a big sweat. That’s because it is purportedly a politicalcrisis, not a financial one. Here’s a news flash. That’s all about to change. The era of Bubble Finance was enabled by a political abdication nearly 50 years ago. But as Donald Trump rightly observed in the wake of Brexit, the voters are about to take back their governments, meaning that the financial elites of the world are in for a rude awakening.
"Monday is where we’re going to see a truer-look at “where the bodies are buried” and a more accurate “price discovery” process than what we’re seeing today (as we’re washing out all the delta one flows which are dwarfing client trading)…lots of discipline being displayed thus far, with low turnovers and folks not chasing. "
Bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach made headlines this week with the comments “central banks are losing control.” I would suggest that central bankers actually lost control back in 2012. Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” pledge actually amounted to concerted central bank intervention to shield global markets and economies from the intensifying forces of the downside of a historic Credit Cycle. The global Credit boom persevered for a few more years, right along with historic market distortions and economic maladjustment. Downside risks have grown significantly.
"We recently conducted checks with two leading search engine marketing (SEM) agencies/platforms, which in aggregate have visibility into ~$5 billion in annual search spending (the vast majority of which, of course, is on Google). At a high level, these early data points suggest that a slight deceleration in the y/y growth rate for search marketing spend in 2Q16 vs. 1Q16 is possible."
One of the oddest things in this increasingly odd world is the spread of negative interest rates everywhere but in the US. One answer is that the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are buying up all the high-quality (and increasing amounts of low-quality) debt in their territories, thus forcing down rates, while the US Fed has stopped its own bond buying program. The other answer is that this is just one of those periodic anomalies that persist for a while and then get arbitraged away. And Brexit might be the catalyst for that phase change.
If there was any doubt that Brexit was "relevant" then the surges in European peripheral bond risk, despite massive bond-buying by The ECB, should send shivers up and down the status quo huggers that are shrugging the referendum decision off because "central banks will provide liquidity." However, it's not just The UK that EU officials need to worry about, as The Globalist notes, Germany will have to change its policies if it wants to avoid exit of other countries from the eurozone.