Monetization

Monetization

In Stunning Reversal, IMF Blames Globalization For Spreading Inequality, Causing Market Crashes

In a stunning reversal for an organization that rests at the bedrock of the modern "neoliberal" (a term the IMF itself uses generously), aka capitalist system, overnight IMF authors Jonathan D. Ostry, Prakash Loungani, and Davide Furceri issued a research paper titled "Neoliberalism: Oversold?" whose theme is a stunning one: it accuses neoliberalism, and its immediate offshoot, globalization and "financial openness", for causing not only inequality, but also making capital markets unstable.

Will Venezuela Be Forced To Embrace The Dollar?

The last phase in all cases of hyperinflation is currency stabilization. This phase is inevitable whether it be because of changes introduced by the government or due to complete rejection of local currency by the population. In order for such a monetary reform to be successful, it is essential that the government first eliminate the main cause of the inflation (the budget deficit). Unfortunately, it does not seem as though the Venezuelan government has any plans to decrease spending, nor does it appear that revenue from oil will be recovering any time soon, meaning that any attempts at currency stabilization will surely fail (just as it did the last time when the bolivar fuerte was introduced in 2008). In light of this situation, it seems that Thiers’ Law is inevitable.

The Humungous Depression

We are not in a recession. We are in a depression, and have been since the turn of the century.

The ECB Met With Goldman, Other Banks At Shanghai G-20 Meeting, Allegedly Leaking March Stimulus

On March 10, 2016 when the ECB announced the biggest expansion to quantitative easing in European history, when it shocked the market by announcing not only a reduction in its negative rate and expansion in the TLTRO program, but also the launch of a corporate bond monetization program.Well maybe not "shocked" the market, because as Bloomberg writes, ECB board members met with representatives of banks and investment managers including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Credit Suisse and Moore Europe Capital Management in February, just days before the ECB's March 10 announcement.

Total US Debt Is Back To Its Great Depression Peak

The following chart from Citi shows the last century of US non-financial leverage in context. As of this moment, consolidated US non-fin debt/GDP is about 275%, or roughly where it was US when the great depression stuck. For those curious about the "tipping point" threshold levels, keep an eye on 300% - that's when the system collapsed last time leading to a devastated economy.

What Manipulation Does To The Free Market

Had the federal government held a constant measuring stick rather than "tinkering, engineering, distorting" key government calculations such as the size of the economy (GDP), the rate of inflation, level of unemployment, or size of federal deficits and federal debt...the reality we face would be plain and honest choices needed.  Instead, the responsibility of those working for "the people" has been breached via falsifying and distorting each of these (over decades).  This consistently improves the output and does not allow a true means to quantify and qualify the nations health.  Simply put, the government has continually tinkered, tampered, and distorted the accounting so as to mislead or create a falsely positive appearance. 

"We Expect A Sizeable Sell-Off" - One Hedge Fund's Four Mega-Bearish Trades

From our friends at Fasanara Capital we get their latest contrarian - and very bearish - Investment Outlook, which can be summarized as follows: "Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead", and which also contains four key conviction trade ideas over the next 12 months. "The narrative of reflation is today dominant and can continue to propel markets for a while longer. But as we know the narrative changes fast, and when it does we can expect a quick re-pricing. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off."

FOMC Preview: The Fed Is "Scared To Death" & "The Knock-On Effects Could Be Spectacular"

Federal Reserve officials are virtually certain to hold interest rates steady when their meeting ends today but they could try to send a message to markets and outside observers about what likely comes next. With no press conference scheduled after this week’s meeting and no new economic forecasts to be released, all the attention will be focused on their words and the market is more aware than ever that the Fed doesn’t act in a vacuum. As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow notes, The Fed is hopeful (that their always-wrong forecasts come true this time) but they're also scared to death on the consequences.

Why Goldman Expects The Japanese Yen To Collapse Within 12 Months

"We expect $/JPY to move higher again in the near term and continue to forecast $/JPY at 130 a year from now.... by making the fiscal expansion permanent and funded through money creation (a politically correct phrase for a form of 'helicopter money'), expectations of future inflation should increase and real rates fall"

Wall Street's Lemmings Have Almost Reached The Cliff

The fact is, Simple Janet has already proven the end game. Money printing central bankers can’t stop. Were they to allow financial prices to normalize and trillions of bad credit to be liquidated, the whole financial house of cards they have built around the planet would blow sky high. The "soft landing" case is a null set.