Goldman, Decembert 20, 2015: "We think the BoJ is closer to easing further to attempt to achieve a successful reflation than it is to giving up altogether, and so we continue to expect $/JPY higher. We recommend being long $/JPY as part of our 2016 top trade recommendation (along with short EUR/$) and forecast $/JPY at 130 in 12 months"... Three days later, the USDJPY is 100 pips lower.
Amid ongoing efforts by Indian authorities to monetize (read confiscate) the citizenry's precious metals (which we most recently detailed as an utter failure here and here), it appears the current suppressed low prices for gold have reignited demand and thus smuggling. Following the biggest seizure of smuggled gold earlier this year, The Guardian reports a 42-year-old-man, claiming to be a government official, was caught smuggling$15,000 of gold bars (hidden in his rectum) after police noted him "walking suspiciously."
We will not spend much time discussing what the FOMC did as tons of ink have been spilled on that already. We will rather spend more time on what the FOMC did not do.
- Watch video - “Monetary insanity” of ECB and Fed is “frightening”
- “Absolutely nothing has been learned” since financial crisis
- “Financial hypocrisy on a grand scale”
- Ireland was vassal of Bank of England and now ECB
- Ireland needs to get “financial and monetary independence”
- Huge demand for gold and yet prices manipulated lower
- Real unemployment is U.S. probably 15-20%
- Dollar may rally in short term but vulnerable in long term
- Russia, China may monetise gold as geopolitical weapon
- Gold and silver are “hedges for you in local currency terms”
“A finance ministry official said if banks fail to win over temples, the government could intervene directly as it is looking for a big boost to the scheme to keep both imports and the current account deficit under control.”
By excluding 294 "day of + day before" Fed meeting trading days (147 x 2 days excluded) out of over 4,500 total trading days since Jun-1997, the drop is ~50%. Basically, excluding just 6% of Fed-influenced days cuts the S&P 500 price in half.
"While funding continued to be available, such a large negative basis indicates potential market dislocations. And this may call into question how smoothly US dollar funding conditions will adjust in the event of an increase in US onshore interest rates. Similar pricing anomalies have also emerged in interest rate swap markets recently, raising related concerns."
When at first you don't succeed (having failed in their bid to draw physical gold from the 'cold, dead' hands of Indian citizens), find another group to exploit. As is standard operating procedure with government, if voluntarism fails, use coercion...
November has been a banner month for black swans. From Leftist political coups in Portugal to terror attacks in Paris to downed Russian fighter jets in Syria, the market is gradually learning to expect the unexpected. In its latest Quarterly Economic Outlook, SocGen outlines five political and economic black swans that could land in 2016.
While the initial EUR response was as expected, dropping about 30 pips (but already rebounding on concerns that the Draghi bazooka may truly be empty this time - after all what else can he surprise with as CA's Valentin Marinov said), German Bunds, especially the short-end, were quick to give Mario Draghi the middle finger and the 2Y has dropped to a fresh record low of -0.389%, because all they heard was that the ECB will monetize even more debt.
Indians Refuse To Give Their Gold To The Government: Only 30 Kilograms Take Part In "Gold Monetization Scheme"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2015 20:58 -0500
One week after the gold scheme's official launch, we take a look at how has it has done so far. In one word, so far the "gold monetization" plan has been a disaster with a laughable 30 kilograms in gold tendered by the people from physical into "government-backed" form.
Brutal news is pouring in from pretty much everywhere. The world, in short, is rolling over. Debt monetization on the scale so far attempted has failed to stop the implosion of tens of trillions of dollars of bad paper, growth has stalled and geopolitics has begun to turmoil. And none of this is a surprise. It’s just what you get when you put monetary printing presses in the hands of governments and/or big banks.
On the heels of placing its third former employee at the Fed this year alone, Goldman explains why the market is wrong about inflation and whyv a handful of ex-Goldmanites will hike by 200bps in the next two years.
JS Kim Issues Critical Warning About Newly Introduced Global Banking "Gold Programs". Could Bankers Be Duping Us into Yet Another One of Their Reverse Alchemy Schemes?
The world is bankrupt after thirty years of borrowing from the future to throw a party in the present, and the authorities can’t acknowledge that. But they can provide the conditions for disguising it, especially in the statistical hall of mirrors that once-upon-a-time produced meaningful signals for the movement of capital. The Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ are the only signaling mechanisms that the legacy media pays attention to, and the politicos take their cues from them, in a feedback loop of false information that begets more delusional positive psychology in those same markets.