Monetization

Monetization

Global Recession And Other Visions For 2017

"...the Fed’s efforts to ‘normalize’ interest rates will be tabled.  The economy simply can’t afford higher rates.  This isn’t Trump’s fault, of course.  He’s been handed a badly damaged economy. Quite frankly, there’s really no way to fix it.  Decades of economic degradation are irreversible." 

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Trump Or No Trump - Why The Next 8 Years Will Be The Worst Economic Period In US History

Regardless who was chosen as president for the next two terms, 80% of the population growth in the US will come from 65+yr/olds. This is the inverse from Bill Clinton's presidency which was the benefactor of the strongest demographic and population changes. The Fed has been dropping rates ever since to incentivize the decelerating growth among the young to spend more... but the population growth to consume(r) our way out of this debt bubble is never coming.

What Donald Trump's Proposed Tax Cut Means For You

Now that Trump is president, both individual and corporate tax-payers are taking a second look at Trump's proposed tax regime to see how it will impact their bottom line. Here is a quick primer.

KKR Calls The Top: PE Giant Selling Distressed Debt It Bought Earlier This Year

“We are in a very significant monetization cycle, particularly in more of the distressed investments that we made,” said Nat Zilkha, who oversees the 40-year-old firm’s credit investments, adding that “we got involved in some situations in energy and coal and other commodities earlier in the year, and those have played out quite well -- frankly faster than we thought.”

RBC: "That Is VaR Crushing DV01 Destruction At Its Finest"

The absolute focus overnight / today is “core” macro though, as global developed market rates are being re-priced “risk manager style,” particularly with EGBs under MAJOR pressure as the buyside is caught wrong-footed (as I type, Slovak 10Y +7.2bps, Denmark 30Y +9.4bps, Netherlands 30Y +9.9bps, Finland 30Y +10.1bps, German 30Y +9.9bps, Austria 30Y +9.3bps…and even front-end seeing outsized moves with the Belgian 2Y +2.2bps).  That is VaR crushing DV01 destruction at its finest.