Monetization

The bigger story is Japan, where the Central Bank dream of doing “enough” is crashing into the wall. Japan has announced a $1.4 trillion QE effort, an amount equal to 21% of its GDP. To put this into perspective, this is the single largest QE in history, the kind of QE Bernanke and his pals could only dream of announcing.

The FOMC appears to have 'tweaked' its message to fit with Bernanke's confusing commentary and confirms that 'tapering is not tightening'.

• FED SAYS INFLATION 'PERSISTENTLY' BELOW 2% GOAL COULD POSE RISK
• FED SAYS ECONOMIC GROWTH WILL PICK UP FROM RECENT PACE
• FED REPEATS RATES 'EXCEPTIONALLY LOW' UNTIL JOBLESS AT 6.5%
• FED SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE
• FED SAYS 'DOWNSIDE RISKS' DIMINISHED 'SINCE THE FALL'
• FED NOTES THAT MORTGAGE RATES HAVE RISEN SOMEWHAT
• FED SAYS IT IS PREPARED TO INCREASE OR REDUCE THE PACE OF PURCHASES

Bullard no longer dissenting, George is sole dissenter. And don't forget, of course, that this is all pretense in the face of the inevitability of the taper due to refunding, political, and technical reasons. As we noted earlier, it seems preferable to pretend the economy is strong enough to withstand less-easing (tightening) than admit the Fed is cornered.

Pre: S&P Futs 1685, 10Y 2.65%, USD Index 81.80, WTI $104.65, Gold $1311

Redline to follow

As liquidity-slurpers the world over wait for the written words from the FOMC this afternoon, it seems the bond market has sold-first-asked-questions-later on its 'Taper' expectations (with 30Y yields now at 23-month highs). It is little surprise (given the real reasons for a Taper as we discussed here and here) but today's ADP and GDP data provide more 'headline' ammo for the Fed to cover the reality that they are cornered. It seems it is better to project the 'fallacy' that the economy is strong enough to withstand a 'tapering' of monetary policy than to admit that there is a technical limit to the extent by which the Fed can print money before it breaks the market and shifts sentiment to a realization that it's nothing but monetization. The US bond market has suffered losses for 3 months in a row now, and this is the first July loss in 10 years - or will the FOMC save them?

Lump this into the mix with the challenges around energy, the instability of the global banking system, the high unemployment rates, particularly among the youth and interest rates at unsustainably low levels, it would be reckless to report that the world economy is either on the brink of or on the road to recovery. Gold is a finite resource, the Chinese central bank continues to acquire gold quietly and without declaring.....for now.

It’s worth repeating: In the shadow of this game, gold looks like a solid investment.

While we know that the Fed will be forced to taper in the short-term as it desperately avoids the 'appearance' of outright monetization that a falling deficit will create, Marc Faber sums up the endgame perfectly in this clip: "I don’t think they will come to their senses for the simple reason that insane people don't realize that they are insane." Faber adds, "they think they’re doing a great job," and in fact they believe - in general - that "if anything, we need to do more, not less." The 'forced-taper-to-plunge-to-untaper' progression means it's going to get worse; as Faber notes, QE/printing will continued indefinitely "until the system breaks down." Having printed this much money with such dismal results, Faber concludes, "the Fed is completely clueless."

UPDATE: That didn't last long... 60% of the gains in the Nikkei and the weakness of the JPY now retraced - as the market cries out for moar bad data...

Following last night's admission that if central bankers get found out for monetization that it all goes pear-shaped, it seems tonight's epic miss in Japanese Industrial production and Household spending has done nothing but push the hordes of levered speculators into an "if-bad-is-good-then-terrible-is-awesome" buying frenzy. The 3.3% MoM IP drop (compared to a -1.5% expectation) is the largest since Feb 2009 (ex Tsunami) and among the largest MoM drops in the history of the data series. The miss is the largest in 2013 (since Abenomics began) and makes it 6 of the last 8 months missing expectations. Household spending shrank for the 2nd month in a row, missing expectations for the 3rd month in a row. Of course, being the well-trained muppets that they are, this data brings buyers into the Nikkei which jumped 180 points even as JPY gapped only around 30 pips weaker.

If there was any doubt that the Fed would proceed with tapering its monthly deficit monetization (i.e., $85 billion in POMO/S&P500 flow injection) over the next few months, those were just laid to rest courtesy of the Treasury's quarterly refunding statement which was filed moments ago, and specifically its Marketable Borrowing Estimates.

With all eyes fixed on GDP and unemployment data this week (and all their revised and propagandized unreality) for more hints at if (not when) the Fed will Taper; the dismal reality that few seem willing to admit is that it is when (not if) and that the announcement of a "Taper" has nothing to do with the economy. There are three key factors driving this decision: Bernanke's bubble-blowing and bond-market-breaking legacy, the political 'clean slate' his successor needs, and, most importantly, the fear that QE will be discovered for what it is - monetization. As BoJ's Kuroda admitted last night "if QE is seen as financing debt, this could lead to rise in yields." With deficits falling, the Fed's real actions will be exposed (unless QE is tapered) and as Kyle Bass has explained before, it was out of the hands of the BOJ (or The Fed) and entirely up to market psychology.

...When banks can monetize debts, they will: when they can grant credit in the absence of prior acts of saving, they will – indeed, we demand that they do no less out of the misplaced fear that otherwise economic expansion will be derailed.

The truth is, of course, that the greater the number of economic decisions which come to be conducted on such a falsified basis, the higher and more unstable is the house of cards we are constructing on the credulity of the masses, the conjuring tricks of their bankers, and the connivance of the authorities who are charged with their supervision.

...Higher prices should discourage further demand, but instead encourage more people to borrow in order to play for a further rise in prices...

Back in May, when we coined the term "Taper Tantrum" before the infamous Hilsenrath article was released bringing with it famine, pestilence and a full rerun of the 1994 blow out in rates, and when the prevailing consensus was that Bernanke wouldn't touch the rate of monthly monetization until December or even 2014, we forecast that as a result of a the declining US deficit (primarily due to a brief spike in GSE remittances to the Treasury until the closed loop of lower monetization ends any myth of a "housing recovery" and pushes US deficits much wider again) Bernanke will have no choice but to taper QE by $20 billion (or else risk destabilizing an already illiquid TSY market even more) with the announcement due at the September FOMC meeting. Just to avoid any confusion, we also showed just what such a September tapering would look like in the grand context of QE. But when, and by how, much does Wall Street see the end of tapering, and what is the sell-side consensus? The list below summarizes the current view by bank.

We had absolutely no concern about the outcome of today's 5 Year auction: after all, when push comes to shove, Bill Gross who yesterday was pitching 5 Year bonds to twitter would have certainly bought up the entire issue. Yet we were surprised to find that Direct Bidders, among which such bond kings as PIMCO, tendered only $6 billion (a 47% hit rate) in bids into today's $35 billion auction. Odd - could Bill Gross have been untruthful in expressing his interest in the bond and was merely looking for greater fools? Unpossible.

Claiming he wasn't afraid to let everyone in attendance know about "the real mess we're in," Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke reportedly got drunk Tuesday and told everyone at Elwood's Corner Tavern about how absolutely fucked the U.S. economy actually is. Bernanke, who sources confirmed was "totally sloshed," arrived at the drinking establishment at approximately 5:30 p.m., ensconced himself upon a bar stool, and consumed several bottles of Miller High Life and a half-dozen shots of whiskey while loudly proclaiming to any patron who would listen that the economic outlook was "pretty goddamned awful if you want the God's honest truth." "Look, they don't want anyone except for the Washington, D.C. bigwigs to know how bad shit really is," said Bernanke, slurring his words as he spoke. "Mounting debt exacerbated—and not relieved—by unchecked consumption, spiraling interest rates, and the grim realities of an inevitable worldwide energy crisis are projected to leave our entire economy in the shitter for, like, a generation, man, I'm telling you."

There is a very simple and elegant solution to declining defense spending, one which has been used time and again in US history when the US government needed to provide the Fed with more securities (i.e. deficit) to monetize: war. According to RT that, or rather its more politicall correct equivalent "kinetic strikes", is what may be just over the horizon. RT reports that President Barack Obama is considering using military force in Syria, and the Pentagon has prepared various scenarios for possible United States intervention.  Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Obama administration is deliberating whether or not it should use the brute of the US military in Syria during a Thursday morning Senate hearing. Gen. Dempsey said the administration was considering using “kinetic strikes” in Syria and said "issue is under deliberation inside of our agencies of government,” the Associated Press reported from Washington.

It is becoming much more apparent that, as we have seen each year for the past three, the Fed's prediction of stronger economic growth by the end of 2013 will be revised lower from the current level of 2.5%. Either Bernanke was lying back then or is he lying now? The problem is that the Fed is literally caught in a "liquidity trap" from which there is currently no escape.  If they reduce liquidity the markets tank, taking down consumer confidence and negatively impacting the economy.  If they keep the liquidity going they will inflate an asset bubble which will ultimately burst destroying the financial markets and the economy.  The choice is, ultimately, a lose-lose scenario even as the bullish case for equities persists. Of course, as Chuck Schumer stated to Bernanke at the last Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, "You are the only game in town."

The pain that banks have experienced can best be seen in the following chart showing the latest update in "Net unrealized gains (losses) on available-for-sale securities" from the Fed's weekly H.8. Two things come to mind: i) For the first time since April 2011, unrealized gains in AFS portfolios among the entire US banking sector became losses, and  ii) The two month rate of loss creation in MTM exempt AFS portfolio soared to the highest in series history.