Monetization

Monetization

Wall Street's Lemmings Have Almost Reached The Cliff

The fact is, Simple Janet has already proven the end game. Money printing central bankers can’t stop. Were they to allow financial prices to normalize and trillions of bad credit to be liquidated, the whole financial house of cards they have built around the planet would blow sky high. The "soft landing" case is a null set.

Former IMF Chief Economist Admits Japan's "Endgame" Scenario Is Now In Play

Japan is heading for a full-blown solvency crisis as the country runs out of local investors and may ultimately be forced to inflate away its debt in a desperate end-game, one of the world’s most influential economists has warned.  "One day the BoJ may well get a call from the finance ministry saying please think about us – it is a life or death question - and keep rates at zero for a bit longer."

Hazlitt, 1946: Inflation, Deflation, Confusion

One thing we could not have simultaneously is both “inflation” and “deflation,” for we could not have simultaneously both an expansion and contraction of the money supply. But we could have a frustrated inflation. We could have simultaneously, as experience in Europe has already proved, both inflation and industrial disruption, inflation and unemployment, inflation and stagnation.

"The People Aren't Stupid" - Germany Takes Aim At The ECB, May Sue Draghi: Spiegel

The alienation between Germany and the ECB has reached a new level. Back in deutsche mark times, Europeans often joked that the Germans "may not believe in God, but they believe in the Bundesbank," as Germany's central bank is called. Today, though, when it comes to relations between the ECB and the German population, people are more likely to speak of "parallel universes."... Should it come to helicopter money, Berlin would have to consider taking the ECB to court to clarify the limits of its mandate. In other words: the German government and Draghi's ECB would be adversaries in a public court case.

The ECB Effect: European Telecom Issues Largest Ever Junk Bond After More Than 100% Upsizing

The market bond market, which is now frontrunning not just what the ECB has announced it will buy but what it may buy, just led to a record European junk bond issuance, when French cable and telecom operator Numericable "stunned the market" (as Reuters put it), when it upsized what was originally supposed to be a $2.25 deal by more than 100% to a whopping $5.2 billion bond deal on Wednesday. This was the largest single high-yield bond tranche ever issued.

For Mario Draghi, None Of This Was Supposed To Happen

It'll be four weeks tomorrow that Draghi fired his quadruple bazooka and yet European markets are in apathetic mode. We show the returns of our usual selection of global assets since the cob the night before the last ECB meeting on March 10th. Perhaps markets haven't been helped by a renewed but unrelated fall in Oil (Brent -9.1%, WTI -6.3%) since this point but it's noticeable that outside of commodities the worst performers have generally been areas of the market that Draghi tried to help.

Russia Relies On Gold To Push Reserves Back Over $380 Billion

Whether you define gold as a barbarous relic, a pet rock, "tradition", or "doomed", Russia surely refers to it as a saving grace. As Russia’s foreign reserves dwindled to just under $350 billion in early 2015, many predicted Russia was going to burn through all of their reserves in the not too distant future as they dealt with a depreciating Ruble and plummeting oil revenues. However, this dire prediction did not pan out mainly due to one thing: Russia’s strategic decision to load up on as much gold over the past few years as it possibly could.

Bank Of Japan Unleashes Yield Curve Chaos: JGBs Inverted At Short- And Long-End

You know you have 'tinkered' too much in the machincations of what dealers now call a "dead market" when the world's largest sovereign bond market is inverted at the short-end and the long-end. Simply put, bond investors reluctance to sell their holdings - amid negative-er and negative-er yields - means The BoJ runs the risk of being unable to meet its buying operations this week.

BofA Explains Why The ECB Will Be Forced To Buy Junk Bonds

When judged against the BoJ, the ECB probably still has a ways to go before hitting the limits of central banker insanity and so, we think it's entirely possible that Draghi moves into HY next. But the reasons to believe the ECB will take the plunge into non-IG corporate credit go beyond the “MOAR is always better” line. As BofAML’s Barnaby Martin explains, the EU corporate sector’s penchant for bond buybacks may ultimately force Draghi further down the ratings ladder lest the ECB should end up entangled in tender offers or else find itself without enough debt to monetize.

JPMorgan: "The ECB Could Purchase Equities Next"

"To the extent this week’s ECB decision marks a shift towards private sector asset purchases, the ammunition the ECB has expands hugely. Assuming the ECB will be willing to navigate eventually into other private sector asset classes, the asset universe for QE purchases could expand to include uncovered bank bonds, bank loans and equities."

Everything Was Working Great... And Then Today's ECB Blog Post Left JPMorgan "Dazed And Confused"

"... this leaves us thoroughly confused. We had thought that the ECB was turning away from further moves into negative territory because of the impact on bank profitability and, hence, on credit availability. Constancio appears to say this is not the key reason. It is disappointing to us to see the ECB without a clear and convincing explanation for why it perceives a bound on rates at -0.4% at this point."