China

China

Analyst Lays Out China's "Doomsday" Scenario

According to Autonomous analyst Charlene Chu, bad debt in China’s financial system will reach as much as $7.6 trillion by the end of this year: an estimate which implies a staggering bad-debt ratio of 34%, orders of magnitude above the official number, and nothing short of a "doomsday scenario" for China's financial system if accurate.

"A Volatile Autumn": Buckled Up For Structured Criticality

Structured criticality is a property of complex systems in which small events may trigger larger events due to subtle interdependencies between elements. This often gives rise to a form of stratified chaos where the general behavior of the system can be modeled on one scale while smaller- and larger-scale behaviors remain unpredictable.

China Blames U.S. For Collapse In "Military Trust"

"...wrong actions on the Taiwan issue, the United States deploying the THAAD system around China, U.S. ships and aircraft's activities in the South China Sea, the United States close-in surveillance in the sea and air near China have had a large, negative influence on bilateral military ties and mutual trust,"

Frontrunning: August 17

  • Trump policy doubts, weak inflation to weigh on Wall Street (Reuters)
  • Trump Remarks on Violent Rally Rattle Aides, Risk Agenda (WSJ)
  • Trump blasts Republican senators over Charlottesville criticism (Reuters)
  • Trump's crisis spurs talk of White House departures (Reuters)
  • Apple denounces neo-Nazis as Spotify bans ‘white power’ tracks (Guardian)

S&P Futures, Euro, Stocks Fall After Fed's Low Inflation Warning

S&P futures, European stocks and bond yields all fell in early trade alongside oil and the euro after the latest Fed minutes expressed concern over weak U.S. inflation, while Asian equities rose overnight ahead of WalMart earnings and the latest ECB minutes

China-India Conflict Is Far More Dangerous Than US-North Korea One

While the international media remains concerned to the point of being fixated on the US-DPRK (North Korea) stand-off, in terms of sheer firepower, the much more pressing stand-off between China and India holds the potential to be far more destructive.

Korean War Part II: Why It's Probably Going To Happen

"...if we are to believe the latest polls, unfortunately, one thing is clear: The American people, on both sides of the political spectrum, are becoming more galvanized around supporting a potential conflict with North Korea... For the establishment, war is a winning sell, at least for now."

Two Stunning Facts About Last Week's VIX Explosion

While the events from last Thursday's volatility explosion may now seem like a distant memory, here are two stunning facts about last week's VIX explosion, and this week's subsequent vol collapse.

5 Charts To Remove The Bubble 'Blinders'

"The financial crisis of 2007/2008 was an epic failure of so many to simply recognize the signs all around them. That tragedy will pale in comparison to the bubble that continues to build in the current market. By operating without blinders those involved in the market can stay above the noise."

Salt, Wampum, Benjamins - Is Bitcoin Next?

"The U.S., E.U., Japan, China and Great Brittan have devalued their currencies significantly over the past ten years. The recent success of cryptocurrencies is a meaningful sign that central banker actions have not gone unnoticed by the users of traditional currencies."