If you've ever complained about your commute, or the traffic jams on your way to vacation destinations, here is some context from China...
As the odds of a Fed rate-hike this century drift asymptotically back towards zero, the stability-desirous central bankers of the emerging world are suddenly facing soaring currencies as hot money floods back into Emerging Asian markets. The Rupiah and Ringgit are up almost 3% overnight as everything from the Baht to the Won are surging against the USD. Asian FX is up 6 straight days against the USD (and 8 of the last 9) for the biggest 9-day gain since May 2009.
Despite last night's disappointingly weak China re-open (notably less than US ADRs had implied), it appears everyone and their pet rabbit levered up as China margin-buying rose CNY21bn - the most in 2 months. It appears China's housing market also disappointed hope-strewn expectations as Golden Week home sales slowed dramatically YoY (blamed on weather). All is not well in the liquidioty stress department as despite ongoing injections, o/n HIBOR spiked 240bps overnight. China stocks are mixed at the open as PBOC strengthens the Yuan fix for the 5th day in a row to 2 month highs. Concerns are also growing in China's corporate bond market where bubble flows have greatly rotated from stocks to drive yields on risky firms to record lows.
The phrase “crossing the Rubicon” has stuck for more than 2,000 years, signifying a risky and dangerous point of no return. This week, the United States government crossed the Rubicon. In a fit of complete arrogance, a federal judge ruled that he has ‘jurisdiction’ over one of the biggest banks in mainland China, Bank of China (BOC), and demands that the bank turn over financial records to his court.
News That Matters
"...the markets did retest the late August lows, and when combined with the very oversold conditions, led to a frantic 'short covering' rally back to previous resistance. It is worth noting that the recent market action is very similar to that of the August decline and initial rebound as well... . If the market is still confined within a more "bearish" trend, the current rally, like the ones that preceded it, will be a "rally to nowhere."
While Alcoa did have the usual justifications for the collapse in its Q3 sales and EPS, blaming what else but China, the real culprit is none of that. Because, as regular readers know too well, with Alcoa it is all about the Non-GAAP addbacks.... and the problem here is that while in previous quarters Alcoa's "restructuring" charges were vast, usually eclipsing the actual GAAP earnings number, in Q3 they tumbled to "only" $66 million - the lowest since March 2013.
WSJ’s Fed whisperer is always good for a bit of Eccles propaganda and so, for whatever it's worth to you, we present the following Hilsy interpretation of the just-released minutes from the “most important” Fed meeting in recent history.
FOMC Minutes Confirm Economy Not Ready For Rate-Hike This Year, Worried About Inflation, "Global Risk"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 14:04 -0400
Given the tumble and stock save since September's infamous "chickening out" FOMC Meeting, investors hope today's minutes will provide some color on just how close Janet and her merry men were to pulling the trigger:
- *FED OFFICIALS SAID `PRUDENT' TO WAIT FOR CLARITY ON OUTLOOK
- *FOMC MINUTES: MOST PARTICIPANTS SEE LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MET THIS YR
- *FOMC MINUTES: ALL BUT ONE MEMBER SAID ECON COND DIDN'T WARRANT HIKE
With all the blame pinned on global turmoil (which has now "calmed" apparently) the S&P 500 has roundtripped to unchanged post-FOMC and given these minutes which suggest this was not a close-call at all. However, this was before the Sept payrolls data.
Pre-FOMC Minutes: S&P Futs 1988.25, 10Y 2.095%, Gold $1145, EUR 1.1285
“If the US is serious about ensuring that China does not dominate these waters, then the longer it waits, the riskier its freedom-of-navigation activities will become.”
Over the past 5 years, the one forecast that was clear to anyone with even an introductory grasp of economics and finance, is that a Chinese economic collapse is inevitable and just a matter of time. Apparently, in retrospect, this was also clear to the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, who during a press conference in Lima, said the following:LAGARDE SAYS CHINA'S SLOWDOWN WAS PREDICTABLE, IS A "GOOD MOVE" There is just one problem with that: of all market participants, the IMF is perhaps the only one who did not predict China's slowdown. Quite the opposite.
Having closed yesterday above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May, the weaker-than-expected Chinese equity market open sent the precious metal tumbling and it is extending losses in the early US session.
Like other banks, Deutsche has been caught up in the Libor-rigging scandal, and faces another investigation in Switzerland for suspected price-fixing in the precious metal market.
Gillian Tett, ourselves and many others have warned that Deutsche and its massive derivative book has the potential to be a ”European Lehman Brothers”. Is Deutsche Bank, the largest holder of Warren Buffett’s “financial weapons of mass destruction” derivatives in trouble?
- Congress probing U.S. spy agencies' possible lapses on Russia (Reuters)
- Defense Ministers From NATO Hit Out at Russian Action in Syria (WSJ)
- U.S. Rules Out Cooperation With Russia as Moscow Launches First Naval Strikes on Syria (WSJ)
- Man Who Called China's Boom and Bust Says Use This Rally to Sell (BBG)
- For Volkswagen, New Questions Arise on U.S. Injury Reporting (BBG)
- Deutsche Bank May Swell $14 Billion Selloff in China Bank Stakes (BBG)
- Emerging market slowdown hits German exports (FT)