Is it time to panic yet?
When looking at the current state of the Chinese economy it is important to note what happened leading up the ongoing predicament.
"More monetary stimulus, wherever it is in the world, isn’t the answer for a global economy still trying to find a new growth path. Pay attention to bonds and ignore the sirens of the stock market."
"This time it has been the USD which has been the focal point. Investors continue to rotate through a vicious circle of concerns on China, commodities and US growth and with a still large long position, further near-term USD losses are likely as broader US data momentum remains weak."
"If one is looking for key technical indicators to ring the bell on the cyclical bull market- maybe it has just rung loud and clear. A renminbi devaluation will only sever an already badly frayed safety rope..."
There is not one America today, nor two. Politically, there are at least four.
Three out of the five major economies are already experiencing stagnant or negative private credit growth. Three down, two to go. Helicopter money--government issued "free money" to households--is no replacement for private credit expansion.
With faith in "growth" faltering and the momo leaders rolling over, there are still worries for the bears in the intermediate term...
Just days after Fed whisperer Goldman Sachs made its first (of many) revisions to its Fed rate hike schedule, and no longer expects a March rate hike (if still somehow seeing 3 rate hikes in 2016), moments ago Fed mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath reiterated the Fed's latest favorite catchphrase - that would be "watchfully waiting" for those who haven't paid attention - , and said that today's jobs report leave the Fed in limbo when it comes to the March rate hike decision. More importantly perhaps he adds that "Fed officials were expecting a slowdown." However, when one adds the 105,000 in prior month revisions, was is this big?
There has been an economic coup d’état in America and most of the world. We are now ruled by about 200 unelected central bankers, monetary apparatchiks and their minions and megaphones on Wall Street and other financial centers. Unlike Senator Joseph McCarthy, we actually do have a list of their names. They need to be exposed, denounced, ridiculed, rebuked and removed.
With China now closed for all intent and purpose for a week as Golden Week arrives, it appears The PBOC wanted to leave the market a message. Clear and direct intervention in offshore Yuan has ripped it 800 pips higher in the last 2 days to its highest since mid-December and stronger than onshore Yuan. However, while PBOC may have won this battle, surging CDS suggest the currency war is far from over.
US futures were largely unchanged overnight, with a modest bounce after the European close driven by a feeble attempt to push oil higher, faded quickly and as of this moment the E-mini was hugging the flatline ahead of today's main event - the January payrolls, expected to print at 190K and 5.0% unemployment, however the whisper number - that required to push stocks higher - is well lower, at 150K (according to DB), as only a bad (in fact very bad) jobs number today will cement the Fed's relent and assure no more rate hikes in 2016 as the market now largely expects.
"... if China FX reserves data is better than expected, we think a bear market rally is likely to be vicious."