China

As tensions continue to rise in both the South China Sea (see the recent protest by dozens of Filipinos in the Spratlys) and the East China Sea (where Beijing and Tokyo are feuding over disputed islands and claims on oil and gas fields), the PLA has begun building China's second aircraft carrier in yet another sign that Xi fully intends to build a true blue water navy.

America has never - ever - avoided a recession when Chicago's Business Barometer has collapsed to these levels. At 42.9, missing the expectations of 50.0 by the most ever, down from 48.7 in November, the final US economic data point of the year sums up perfectly what a disaster Yellen has hiked rates into.

Despite such endless financial engineering, sales for the S&P 500 have been declining for the last three quarters. And profits have declined for the first time since the 2009 expansion. Simply put: The recovery is a mirage... It isn’t real... And it isn’t sustainable.

• Oil ends 2015 in downbeat mood; hangover to be long, painful (Reuters)
• Recession, retrenchment, revolution? Impact of low crude prices on oil powers (Guardian)
• Midwest Flooding Might Make the Oil Glut Worse (BBG)
• From Oil Glut to Shortage? Some Say It Could Happen (WSJ)
• Ten Years After Blowup, Amaranth Investors Waiting to Get Money Back (WSJ)
• China Fires a Warning Shot at Yuan Speculators With Bank Bans (BBG)

It has come down to this: a year in which the US stock market (led by a handful of shares even as the vast majority of stocks has dropped) has gone nowhere, but took the longest and most volatile path to get there, is about to close either red or green for 2015 based on what happens in today's low-volume session following yesterday's unexpected last half hour of trading "air pocket" which brought the S&P back to unchanged for the year.

By that, I mean the normal supply and demand forces no longer make sense.

After looking over all the figures, it seems as if something broke in the U.S. Silver Market this year. By that, we mean the normal supply and demand forces no longer make sense.

America is being destroyed by problems that are unaddressed. Unbridled greed, short-term in nature, will continue to drive America into the ground.

The last two years rents have been rising primarily due to supply and demand issues.

If at first you don't succeed, try, try, keep trying again and again. That appears to be the mantra of Goldman's credit strategists.

In a guest article for Handelsblatt, Christine Lagarde warns that 2016 is likely to be a disappointment as the Fed hike and China's transition to a consumer-driven economy continue to weigh on global growth prospects. Sorry Janet, it looks like the IMF doesn't agree with your justification for liftoff.

• Oil rebound fizzles, sending global shares lower (Reuters)
• Saudi Arabia Won’t Change Oil Production (WSJ)
• China suspends forex business for some foreign banks (Reuters)
• Republicans come up short in search for diverse voters in 2016 election (Reuters)
• Oil Prices Become a Problem for U.S. Steelmakers (BBG)
• Oil-Producing States Battered as Tax-Gushing Wells Are Shut Down (BBG)

With just two days left in 2015, the main driver of overnight global stocks and US equity futures remains the most familiar one of all of 2015 - crude oil, which, after its latest torrid bounce yesterday has resumed the familiar "yoyo" mode, and again stumbled dropping below $37 on yesterday's surprising API 2.9 million crude inventory build, as well several more long-term "forecasts" by OPEC members, with Kuwait now budgeting for $30 oil, while Venezuela's Maduro said the oil price fell to $28/bbl and is "headed downward." As a result U.S. futures declined and European stocks fell, extending their worst December drop since 2002 in thin volume on the last full trading day of the year.

For the first time since the August collapse, Offshore Yuan is trading over 1000 pips weaker (relative to the USDollar) than onshore Yuan, signalling outflows are once again escalating. Following the chaos in HIBOR money-markets, Offshore Yuan has crashed to 6.5970 (below August spike lows) to the weakest since Dec 2010. On the heels of this recent divergence between on- and off-shore Yuan, China has suspended some foreign banks from FX trading, we suppose to try and stem the capital outflows.