China

While we will present a comprehensive update of the just released TIC data shortly, the one chart worth noting is the sequentual change in holdings by foreign countries, and particularly one of them. Importantly, of the 4 largest holders of US debt, China, Japan, the UK and Oil Exporters, the latter 3 all saw an increase in their Treasury holdings, China continues selling Treasurys, with a 4th consecutive decline in its total holdings. That said, since TIC data is notoriously flawed and always incorrect, with at least half UK purchases being attributed to China post annual revisions (nobody knows who is responsible for the other half) it could well turn out that China was the only country actually buying US paper. We won't know for sure for at least a year from now following the next full year revision. And by then it likely won't matter.

Completing the trifecta of posts focusing on China, here is the (un)official leak of Chinese GDP data to Phoenix TV which is due out at 10 pm. In the past this has been roughly 100% accurate. So without further ado...

And just in time to follow up on our previous post about the Chinese real estate bubble pop which speculated that PBoC tightening is over, here comes Goldman confirming that the tightening in the world's fastest growing economy is now over. To wit, from Yu Song Helen Qiao: "There was a clear loosening of monetary conditions in March, despite possible distortions to March monetary data because of various end-of-the-quarter examinations at commercial banks. This loosening of monetary conditions was contributed by a combination of i) more bank lending; ii) change to fiscal deposits; and iii) more FX inflows." So China, which is about to report 5.4% CPI (per a Phoenix TV leak, more shortly) is willing to take the political risk of loosening even as it has been working hard to suppress the Jasmine revolution. And yet people still believe the Fed will not recommence loosening (and with ZIRP that leaves only acronym option) as soon as the marginal credit bubble pops heard around the world (not to mention the supply chain effects from Japan crunch US margins) resonate until they hit the US ten-fold. On the other hand a Chinese loosening, no matter the political risks, is possibly Bernanke's last ditch attempt to export marginal money printing, together with Japan which will soon find that another round of QE is inevitable. Alas, with Europe tightening, the US will be the marginal variable yet again. Just like in China, Expect a few month break between QE2 and QE3 at best.

The deflating Dollar is the World's Reserve currency at 62% of all the money in the World and growing fast as Ben buys 'em as fast as Timmy can print them and then loans them out to the Banksters, who promptly lever that money 10:1 to buy commodities.

As if holding $36 billion (€25 billion) in Spanish sovereign debt wasn't enough, China now appears to be going all in as Spain's white knight. Reuters reports that in addition to keep the government solvent, China is now going direct to Spain's troubled banking system. "Chinese investors including the country's sovereign wealth fund may inject $13 billion into Spanish banks, a government source said on Wednesday after Spain's premier met financial authorities in Beijing." Then again, recall that it was Portugal which relied last exclusively on China as a last chance rescuer. Which is why we disagree completely with this statement: ""If this is true it is positive for the market. If CITIC or another Chinese vehicle invests 9 billion euros that would represent around 5 percent of the equity in the Spanish banking system," said a London-based analyst who asked not to be named." Uh, no. It means that the market, like a good Pavlovian dog, will now start dumping Spanish paper in expectations of yet another bailout. And the more Spain is forced to buy to preserve it cross-linked investments in the PIIGS, the more dumping. After all such is life in centrally planned bizarro world.

Two months ago we reported that the recently bailed out Unionized Carmaker, for whom China (where they apparently do not care about falling steering wheels) has become a market more important than even the US, had seen some jarring demand weakness, following a 10% drop in January sales. We now learn that GM was not only the beneficiary of last year's Cash For Clunkers program in the US, but has been the recipient of recent incentives offered in the domestic Chinese market. Alas those are now over, and as Bloomberg reports "China’s passenger-car sales grew in March at a pace that was below forecasts after incentives ended and fuel prices rose, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said." That's putting it mildly: for an economy in which a growth rate of 10% is considered stagnating, what happened in March was equivalent to a drubbing: "Dispatches of cars including multipurpose vehicles and sport-utility vehicles to dealerships rose 6.52 percent from a year earlier to 1.3 million units, the association said in a statement today. That pace was about one-tenth of the 63 percent sales increase reported in March of last year." Which brings us to the question of the day: how does one spell "short GM" in Mandarin? Yet the irony of the day award goes to Charlie Munger, who may or may not have been completely "open" with his purchase of BYD shares: BYD sales plunge in March by 41% (Y/Y). Suck it in, Charlie.

While the rest of the world finally wakes up to the reality of pervasive Chinese reverse merger fraud, a topic we discussed way back in November and alleged that soon enough the bulk of Chinese companies receiving NYSE and Nasdaq listing are very possibly frauds, we would simply like to demonstrate the performance of our short Chinese basket discussed most recently here. At a 75% annualized profit, shorting Chinese fraud is proving to be two times as lucrative as being long silver.

And so we get the latest confirmation that China is now very invested in the Euro, ostensibly at the expense of the US Dollar. According to the Spanish government, China already holds €25 billion in Spanish debt, which explains where Chinese foreign buying interest has gone (most certainly not to US Treasurys) in 2011 (certainly not toward purchasing US Debt, where Chinese holdings have barely moved recently). Additionally, China, as Spain's soon to be largest creditor, has said it will help fund a restructuring of the Cajas debt: after all there is nothing better than consensual pre-petition arrangement between creditor and insolvent debtor.

In what can only be described as a stunning deterioration in foreign relations between the world's two superpowers, following Friday's release by the US State Department of the annual report on human rights, which expressed sharp criticism of the human rights records of China, North Korea, Cuba and Belarus, among others, China decided it has had enough. Less than 48 hours later, it has lashed back at the US with a report that is making headlines at every government controlled, and otherwise, media in mainland China, which makes a mockery of the US double standard when it comes to human rights, and exposes US "hypocrisy" which China (rightly many would claim) asserts is merely a pretext for continued US attempts at world "hegemony". As Xinhua reports on its front page, "The Human Rights Record of the United States in 2010 was
released by the Information Office of China's State Council, or
cabinet, in response to the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices
for 2010 issued by the U.S. Department of State on April. The U.S. reports are "full of distortions and
accusations of the human rights situation in more than 190 countries and
regions including China. However, the United States turned a blind eye
to its own terrible human rights situation and seldom mentioned it,"
China's report said." The war of words hits a new all time record: "The United States has taken human rights as "a political instrument to defame other nations' image and seek its own strategic interests," the report said. While illustrating a dismal record of the United States on its own human rights, China's report said the United States could not be justified to pose as the world's "human rights justice." "However, it released the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices year after year to accuse and blame other countries for their human rights practices," the report said. These moves fully expose the United States' hypocrisy by exercising double standards on human rights and its malicious design to pursue hegemony under the pretext of human rights, it said. The report advised the U.S. government to "take concrete actions to improve its own human rights conditions, check and rectify its acts in the human rights field, and stop the hegemonistic deeds of using human rights issues to interfere in other countries' internal affairs." While that last sentence may not be an explicit warning for the US to shut the hell up and focus on its own dirty laundry, or else, it sure does sound like one.

The ongoing total decimation of the dollar is sending everything that still has value through the roof. Case in point: WTI which just passed $111 for the first time since 2008. And with Brent waiting with open arms at $125 it is only a matter of time before gas prices in the US will make the teleprompter advise anyone who doesn't have Discount Window access to trade in their inline 4 for the "Wealth Effect." In the meantime, a centrally planned China was just forced to hike gas prices for only the second time in 2011 (lucky them): "April 7, China, Asia’s largest oil consumer, raised retail prices of gasoline and diesel for the second time this year, starting Thursday, as international crude oil prices continue rising, China Business News reported on Thursday. The benchmark retail price for gasoline will rise by RMB 500 a metric ton on April 7 and that for diesel will increase by RMB 400, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said on Wednesday. According to several energy information institutions, the retail price of 90# gasoline will rise by 5.63% to RMB 9,380 per tonne, and that of 0# diesel will gain 4.9% to RMB 8,530 per tonne, the paper said." Bottom line - pretty soon the entire WTI curve will be in backwardation.

One hour ago the PBOC announced the most recent Chinese rate hike, second in 2011, and fourth since October 2010, in the country's ongoing fight with excess-liquidity driven (both courtesy of the Fed and the PBoC itself) inflation, which has been running near a 28-month high of 5.1% hit in November. Benchmark one-year deposit rates will be lifted by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent, while one-year lending rates will be raised by 25 basis points to 6.31 percent, the People's Bank of China said in a statement on its website. The hike will be effective beginning Wednesday, April 6.

Starting to get doubts about QE3? Don't tell that to the official Chinese rating agency Dagong, who in traditional uber-pragmatic fashion, has the following summary observation on US monetary policy, and any imaginary changes thereto: "The second round quantitative easing policy ongoing in the United States can not change its weak domestic demand in the short term. In fact, it can only lower the interest rate of US Treasuries so as to maintain stable interest rate in the capital market in the long term, playing the indirect role of clearing some obstacles for a stable recovery. However, the plan of purchasing 600 billion US dollar Treasury bonds can not realize its predicted goal; and therefore, the United States will hardly change its predetermined monetary policy in 2011." What does this mean for China and the rest of the world: "The continuous implementation of such unconventional monetary policy in the United States will lead to the escalation of world credit war and inflict greater losses for related parties in the world credit system." Any questions?

Asian demand is especially strong in the increasingly important China. The Chinese strong cultural affinity and love affair with gold (primarily due to a distrust of Chinese paper money) shows no signs of abating. Indeed, it may be accelerating as was seen in the recent figures from the Shanghai Gold Exchange and customs in China and now reports (including from CNTV – the national TV station of the People's Republic of China) of shortages of raw gold or unrefined gold. China, now the largest producer of gold in the world is seeing its gold mines struggle to cater for surging Chinese demand. The raw gold trade has been growing by up to 30% per annum and demand has leapt in recent months leading to a developing raw gold shortage in China. The industry in China expects only 27,000 tonnes of raw gold can be delivered this year. That is way below the estimated demand of 50,000 tonnes. A potential supply shortage of 23,000 tonnes of gold is a large amount of gold in the small gold bullion market which is tiny versus equity, bond and derivative markets. It is infinitesimal when compared to the $4,000 billion a day traded in currency markets.

Radiation damage control now shifts over to the granddaddy of all free media China, where Xinhua has just reported a "tiny amount of radioactive material in the air over the nation's southeastern coastal areas" has been detected. But not to worry: just like in Japan and everywhere else in the world, this radiation is of the special "Ann Coulter" variety which actually boosts one's natural healthy glow and facilitates a prompt chromosome doubling courtesy of supposedly uber-benign mutation, and after all: more is better, so surely 92 chromosomes is much better than just 46 diploid pairs: "Xinhua quoted China's Nuclear Emergency Coordination Commission as saying that the radioactive level detected does not affect human health and no preventive measures are necessary." And courtesy of EX-SKF, we now learn that TEPCO is once again doing all it can to massage disclosure and delay the release of potentially unpalatable data, after the Asahi Shinbun only recently announced that the Pressure vessels in reactors 1, 2 and 3 may have holes confirming everybody's worst fears of full blown release of radioactive particles in the environment.