China

China

GDP - Less Than Meets The Eye

The most common statistic used to measure the size and growth rate of a nation’s economy is Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  However, GDP as most commonly used can be a flawed measurement if one tries to infer that the size or growth of economic activity is well correlated to the prosperity of its people.

Frontrunning: September 7

  • Trump and Clinton look to pass U.S. commander-in-chief test (Reuters)
  • Undecided GOP-Leaning Voters Provide an Opening for Donald Trump (WSJ)
  • Stage set for iPhone 7, but many await 8 (Reuters)
  • Dollar Slides Versus Yen as Prospect of September Fed Hike Dims (BBG)
  • World stocks hit one-year highs as Fed hike prospects fade (Reuters)
  • Merkel strikes back, defends migrant policy after election rout (Reuters)

Eerie Calm Continues: Futures Flat Ahead Of Apple's Latest Product Launch

The unprecedented period of low volatility, in which the S&P hasn't moved more than 1% in either direction, is now well into its 40th day and the muted overnight session has done nothing to put this streak in jeopardy with S&P futures once again hugging the flatline ahead of the widely expected 3:30pm ramp. European stocks were likewise little changed while Asia was fractionally higher depite a modest dip in the Nikkei.

USDJPY Tumbles On Sankei Article BOJ Is Struggling To Reach Policy Consensus

After having dropped all day following the latest set of poor US data making a September rate hike virtually impossible, moments ago the USDJPY snapped lower by nearly 80 pips.  Among the reasons cited for the steep drop on trading desks, is that according to a Sankei article published just over an hour ago, BOJ board members are struggling to reach a consensus position on comprehensive policy review.

"It's Probably Not Nothing"

Normally, we would say "it's probably nothing" - after all central banks "got this", only in this case it isn't.

Global Oil Demand Set To Tumble As China Cracks Down On Teapot Refiners

Purchases by the China's teapot refiners, granted permission last year to buy foreign crude, have soaked up some of the global oil glut over the past years. However, blistering crude oil demand from teapots may be about to hit a brick wall as a government tax crackdown threatens to constrain this new source of demand from China.

Trump Vs. The HillaryCons

“This is a binary election... [N]ot voting” for Trump is “functionally... a vote for Hillary.” So for the outspoken rightist establishmentarians, what is conservative about rendering aid and comfort to the presidential ambitions of Hillary Rodham Clinton?

Oil Slide Stalls As Saudi Hints At Massive Budget Cuts

WTI crude has dropped back to a $43 handle this morning - erasing the Saudi-Russia statement hype ramp - after China inventories and disappointing 'freeze' talk but for now the plunge has stalled as Saudi Arabia is set to review thousands of contracts aiming to cancel up to $20 billion of projects. This suggests hope for higher oil prices (improved revenues) are fading.

FX Trading By Hedge Funds And Prop Traders Tumbles 30% Over Past Three Years

What was most striking in the latest Triennial BIS survey, was the shrinkage in FX trading by hedge funds and proprietary trading firms which fell by more than 30% over the past three years. The shrinkage in the share of FX trading by these investors is likely the result of regulatory pressures and FX rigging investigations which caused significant retrenchment by FX prop desks.