China

China

Why Nations Fail

It's what you do with what you've got... "Yes, national prosperity has some correlation to the resources available to the State, but importantly, it's determined by how those resources are put to productive -- and fair -- use."

Why Oil Under $40 Will Bring It All Down Again: That's Where SWFs Resume Liquidating

If oil were to drop back under $40, not only would it precipitate even more selling of oil as momentum strategies flip, but it would catalyze a liquidation by those SWFs who thought they were done selling equities, leading to a return of the same sellers that pushed the S&P back to the low 1,900s a short 6 months ago. So for all those curious where stocks are going next, the simple answer is: keep an eye on what oil does next.

Atlanta Fed Sees Dramatic Surge In Economy, Pegs Q3 GDP At 3.8%

Dear Janet, you have a problem! With jobs surging, stocks at record highs, volatility near record lows, China stable, and Brexit behind us, today's shocking upgrade of the US economy by The Atlanta Fed (to +3.8% growth) leaves The Fed with little to no excuse for hiking rates at least once if not twice this year...

Futures, Global Stocks Rise As Oil, USDJPY Drops: All Eyes On The Jobs Report

With all eyes on today's jobs report, where consensus expects a 180K payrolls gain, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all rise amid a surge in government debt as markets digest the BOE's "kitchen sink" easing for a second day. But please don't overthink it. In deja vu fashion, Bloomberg summarizes the action simply as "stocks rose around the world on speculation central bank stimulus measures will support the global economy." We've heard that just a few times before.

The End Of A Trend: Oil Prices And Economic Growth

Far from a sign of good things for the economy as whole, recently declining oil prices now tend to indicate a weakening economy that was already in a weak state. It turns out that the oil price and the economy are now in a very tight relationship, and we are going to be seeing them together a lot for a long time to come.

Iran Is Cheating On The Nuclear Deal, Now What?

One year into the nuclear deal, two credible and timely intelligence reports reveal that Iran has no intention of honoring the terms of the deal, which, anyway, it never signed. Germany's domestic intelligence agency revealed that the Iranian government has pursued a "clandestine" path to obtain illicit nuclear technology and equipment from German companies "at what is, even by international standards, a quantitatively high level." What has been President Obama's reaction to these crucial intelligence reports? Silence.

S&P Futures Flat As Europe, Asia Lifted By Banks, Yen; All Eyes On The Bank Of England

In a mostly quiet session, European and Asian stocks rose, pushed higher by financial stocks and the USDJPY which initially dipped on some hawkish comments by BOJ deputy governor Iwata, only to rebound later in the session, lifting the Nikkei 1.1%, while the Stoxx 600 rose 0.4% led higher by the banking sector. S&P futures are unchnaged after yesterday's last hour ramp. The key event is the BOE decision due in half an hour.

Full BOE Preview, And A Look At What UK Corporate Bond QE Will Look Like

  • Bank of England are widely expected to cut rates to 0.25% with a 25bps rate reduction fully priced in OIS markets.
  • The central bank is also touted to expected to announce further stimulus measures including the potential restart of its QE programme, the LFP Scheme, or corporate QE.
  • 2017 GDP growth forecast is likely to see a significant downgrade amid early signs of a deterioration in the UK economy, while GBP depreciation is likely to support 2017 Inflation forecasts.

What Will Hillary Do? Goldman Ranks Russia 'Best Olympian' Nation Ever (Over #2 USA)

While exceptional USA is heralded as savior of the world and "greatest nation ever in the history of earth," by Hillary Clinton, it appears Goldman Sachs disagrees... when it comes to The Olympics. From an 'efficiency' perspective,  controlling for how populous, rich (income per capita), and 'efficient' they are, Russia is the greatest olympic sporting nation (and ironically Greece is worst)...