Oil Jumps Despite Saudi Plans For "Significant Output Growth"; Kuwait Unveils Plans For Record Production SurgeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/10/2016 11:25 -0400
Two stories that oil traders are ignoring in today's action is the latest out of Saudi Arabia where Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, announced it was raising production to capture more customers as it pushes ahead with what could be the world’s biggest stock market listing next year the FT reported earlier. Additionally, Kuwait's head of research at state-owned Kuwait Petroleum said the country aims to produc a record 4 million a barrels a day by 2020, a major increase of nearly 50% compared to its recent 2.8mmbpd output recorded in March.
- World stock markets rise while yen falls back (Reuters)
- Yen Falls a Second Day as Japan Reiterates Ability to Intervene (BBG)
- Say goodbye to OPEC, Russia’s Sechin says (Reuters)
- European Stocks Buoyed by Banks (WSJ)
- Fed's Dudley: More Reserve Currencies Would Make for Stronger Financial System (WSJ)
- Dead-of-Night Reversal Puts Brazil Impeachment Back on Track (BBG)
In what has been an approximate repeat of the Monday overnight session, global stocks and US futures rose around the world as oil prices climbed toward $44 a barrel, with risk-sentiment pushed higher by another plunge in the Yen which has now soared 300 pips since the Friday post-payroll kneejerk reaction, and was trading above 109.20 this morning. At the same time base metals regained some of Monday’s steep losses following Chinese CPI data that came in line while PPI declined for 50 consecutive months however showed a modest rebound from the prior month on the back of China's recent, and now burst, speculative commodity bubble.
The reset is the answer, not the problem. Delaying the answer only elongates the pain of the problem. Under the direction of orthodox economics (the fusion of Keynes and monetarism) the world’s “stimulus” apparatus is making a bad situation worse by (at best) dragging it out far longer than maybe it would have under more traditional business cycle conditions. Belief in the power of “stimulus” to make it happen prevents awareness of what is, again, really a paradigm shift that will not be altered. What we are analyzing, then, is not what awaits but how long it takes to get there and the huge, growing costs to delay what looks only inevitable.
The current financial market volatility increasingly reflects loss of faith in policy makers. Celebrity central bankers are learning that they must constantly produce new miracles for their followers. For the moment, the volatility is confined to financial markets and the effect on the real economy is limited. The ever present risk is of a doom loop where financial market problems lead to banking system weakness which, in turn, feeds a credit crunch and a contraction in economic activity. That familiar movie does not have a happy ending.
In reality, it will not be a single factor but an unexpected concatenation of events, that result in a financial crisis, driving global contagion and an economic slowdown.
"Capitalism Has A Crisis" - Deutsche Sees No Light At The End Of The Tunnel "Until There Is A Recession"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016 12:42 -0400
If Deutsche Bank is right, the Fed - which has staked not only its credibility but its very existence on keeping the US stock market propped up and artificially inflated - has a big problem.
With the Euro Area calendar relatively light from a data perspective, focus will instead fall on the Bank of England’s `Super Thursday`
In Asia, focus will fall on China as participants await credit data and inflation figures.
Real demand for steel in China dropped at least 7% in April from the year before, according to Citigroup’s Tracy Liao estimates, so it should not be a total surprise that the frenzied speculative buying in Iron Ore, Rebar, and various other industrial metals in China has crashed back to reality as volumes plunge, dragging The Baltic Dry Freight Index with it as yet another government-manipulated 'signal' collapses into a miasma of malinvestment and unintended consequences.
WTI Crude prices have puked back all the "yay we have a new Saudi Oil Minister" algo-buying gains and even with just modest strength in the USD Index, the bloodbath overnight in Chinese commodity markets appears to be spilling over. Gold and Silver are also being punished as commodity currencies collapse.
In the traditional post payrolls data lull, we’re kicking off what’s set to be a much quieter week for data this week with nothing of note due to be released in the US on Monday, however the week picks up with notable economic dataon NFIB small business cofidence, Import prices, PPI and culminates with Friday's retail sales report, UMichigan sentiment and business inventories.
Moments ago all of our warnings about P2P lending were validated (quite painfully for those still long the company) and the Peer2Peer bubble may have finally burst, when as part of its Q1 earnings release, the board of directors announced that on May 6, 2016 it had accepted the resignation of Renaud Laplanche as Chairman and CEO. His resignation followed an internal review of sales of $22 million in near-prime loans to a single investor.
- China stocks plunge again as hopes for economic recovery fade (Reuters)
- European Stock Gains Defy China Data That Hurt Metals; Oil Rises (BBG)
- Yen falls after Tokyo warning (Reuters)
- Soros Chart Signals BOJ Bond Buying Already Enough to Weaken Yen (BBG)
- Dollar Jump Catches Traders Short in One More Currency Calamity (BBG)
- Even China's Party Mouthpiece Is Warning About Debt (BBG)
The overnight session has been one of alternative weakness and strength: it started in China where stocks tumbled 2.8% to a two month low following some unexpected warnings in the official People's Daily newspaper and poor trade data. Concerns about China, however, were promptly forgotten and certainly not enough to keep global assets lower, with European stocks gapping higher at the open and rallying from a one-month low, driven by a "surprising" surge in the USDJPY which has moved nearly 200 pips higher since its post-payrolls low. Another driver is the jump in oil, which rallied just shy of $46 a barrel, buoyed by Canadian wildfires that are curbing production and speculation that the Saudi Arabian oil minister succession will be bullish for oil prices.