China

"The exception to this global picture is in the US, where sector performance was a Pavlovian response to the much expected upcoming US rate rises (Utilities down and Basic Materials up). Global investors may be cyclically bearish, but US investors appear distracted by the historically cyclically positive message US rate rises might imply. We think this may prove a mistake."

Well this is a little awkward. After a day of exuberant unsubstantiated auto sales proclamations that a) it's not all subprime, b) 8-year credit terms do not pull forward demand, and c) it's totally sustainable; anyone could have been forgiven for being excited about the total vehicle sales of 18.12mm (according to Wards' data), just above expectations of 18.10mm and flat from October. However, Wards reported just 14.03mm domestic vehicles sold (missing expectations by the most since June) and dropping for the 2nd month in a row. Those darned facts do get in the way eh?

With 15 days left until the day that will live in monetary policy infamy, it appears investors are beginning to lose faith...

Smart money continues to accumulate gold and silver coins. Demand for American Eagle silver coins has also been strong, with year-to-date sales already reaching an annual record at 44.67 million ounces, breaking the full-year record of 44 million ounces in 2014

While it is hoped that the economy can continue to expand on the back of the "service" sector alone, history suggests that "manufacturing" continues to play a much more important dynamic that it is given credit for... and that is a major problem as ISM Manufacturing just fell below 50 for the first time since Nov 2012, crashing to 48.6 - the weakest since June 2009. Across the components, new orders collapsed (worst since Aug 2012), and prices paid crashed. Seems like a perfect time to raise rates!!

Following China's surging and tumbling Manufacturing PMIs, and mixed data in Europe, US Manufacturing PMI's fell in November to 52.8 from October's hope-strewn bounce above 54. This is the weakest PMI print since October 2013 (as ISM Manufacturing tumbled to its lowest since Dec 2012). 30 regions have reported PMIs so far with half (15) seeing weakness (and just 13 seeing improvements) as new orders plunge to lowest since Oct 2013.

Despite ongoing exuberance at auto sales in America (which disappointed) - as crashing credit standards enable every Tom, Dick, and Muppet to buy too much 'depreciating asset' for their incomes - there are numerous problems few are talking about for automakers worldwide. Aside from "plans to buy a car" tumbling in the latest confidence surveys, and inventories-to-sales surging, China just poured ice cold water on any hope of stability in that 'growth' market as auto dealers issue the highest inventory alert since June. November data from China shows demand plunging, sales collapsing, and inventories soaring - a triple whammy of "no, things are not 'stabilizing'."

• Global Stocks Edge Higher on Expected ECB Stimulus (WSJ)
• Moment of truth as Puerto Rico faces crucial debt payment (Reuters)
• Obama urges Turkey to reduce tensions with Russia, stresses support (Reuters)
• Russian Media Takes Aim at Turkey (WSJ)
• Support Grows for U.S. Commando Raids to Fight Islamic State (BBG)
• Yuan Drops as SDR Approval Seen Prompting PBOC to Reduce Support (BBG)

There was something for everyone in last night's much anticipated Chinese PMI data, with the official number sliding to the lowest in over 3 years, suggesting the PBOC will need to do more stimulus and is thus bullish, while the unoffocial Caixin print rising to the highest since June, suggesting whatever the PBOC is doing is working, and is also bullish. Not unexpectedly, global stocks decided to take the bullish way out, and have risen across the globe led by Asia, where stocks rose as much as 1.8%, Europe also green and US equity futures up 10 points as of this writing.

Following the earlier onslaught of weak (and strong) economic data, China has revealed its official and Caixin-based PMI surveys for Manufacturing and Services. Sure enough, while China's official manufacturing data missed (to Aug 2012 lows), Ciaxin's survey beat, jumping to June 2015 highs. even as China's official Services PMI beat expectations, bouncing off 15-month lows. The question now is - given The IMF's inclusion of the Yuan in the SDR basket - will The PBOC devalue (as offshore Yuan implies) to juice a collapsing manufacturing sector...  or is China's manufacturing now improving if one looks at the "other" PMI?

From South Korean exports (beat) to Aussie PMI (multi-year highs) and from China Services PMI (2012 lows) to Japan CapEx (multi-year highs), AsiaPac was awash with the exact kind of baffle 'em with bullshit data that provides just enough "see everything is awesome after all" to balance the "umm, but what about..." less glass half full perspective. For your viewing pleasure - 5 WTF charts for AsiaPac economies...

"... As the tide of leverage goes out, the full extent of irresponsible lending becomes apparent. The previously virtuous cycle between risk spreads and fundamentals goes into reverse, with lower prices, defaults, and downgrades forcing leveraged investors to sell, leading to even lower prices."

"Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin."

It is Pedro's "courage to write" what Bernanke conveniently forgot to add in his memoir, that makes this review so much more memorable than the generic sycophantic tripe written by his "access journalism" peers.

The ISIS group sells most of its crude directly to independent traders at the wellhead for $20-$45 a barrel earning the group an average of $1.5 million a day.