China

China

What The Oil And Gas Industry Is Not Telling Investors

There are very real threats to the business models of oil companies, threats that need to be explained to investors, according to a new report by Carbon Tracker. Right now, those threats are not being taken seriously.

SocGen Explains Why "Shorting During US Reporting Season" Is A Bad Idea

"During the busy reporting weeks, upgrades rise relative to downgrades only for this to reverse during ‘quiet’ periods when companies revert to guiding numbers back down again. Why is this important? History shows that during the busiest reporting weeks the S&P 500 has risen 60% of the time versus less than 50% during the quietest weeks. The simple message is this: don’t be short during US reporting seasons."

Nasdaq 100 Highest Since Dot-Com, VIX 13 Handle, S&P Breaks 2,100

As Nasdaq 100 surges above July 2015 cycle highs towards 2000 record highs and the S&P 500 breaks the key 2,100 level - erasing all the losses from August 11th's start of China's devaluation, global markets in turmoil collapse - on ever-decreasing volume, it appears the credit market 'changed its mind' after Europe closed. What happens next?

Europe Will Never Be The Same; Neither Will The World

People are genetically biased against change, because change means potential danger. People are also genetically biased against acknowledging this bias, because they wish to see themselves as being able to cope with both change and danger. Put together, this means that when changes come, people are largely unprepared or underprepared. This little bit of psychology 101 may seem redundant, but it is indispensable if we wish it to recognize the implications of Europe -and the entire world with it, in its slipstream- having already entered a period of change so profound it is impossible to predict what the impact will be. This ignorance and denial threatens to lead to a needless increase in nationalism, fascism, violence, misery, death and warfare. If we were to acknowledge that the change is inevitable, and prepare ourselves accordingly, much of this could be avoided.

Bitcoin More Than Doubles 2015 Lows As Chinese Ignore Easing Capital Controls

Bitcoin is up 123% from its January lows and over 50% higher than its early-September (post-Bitcoin XT anxiety) lows when we first warned about the virtual currency's relationship with possible China outflows. Despite promises of easing capital controls (and the chaos in the Yuan market over the last few days), it appears the Chinese are not waiting for the other shoe to drop and as offshore Yuan tumbled, so Bitcoin surged above $340 this morning (rallying all the way back to unchanged YoY).

German Bunds Tumble Amid China Reserve "Selling" Chatter

Amid the ever-expanding easing program in Europe (longer? more-er? different-er?), one of the gravest concerns was (amid a growing scarcity of collateral), finding willing sellers (at any price) to meet the needs of central bank asset purchasers could be a problem. However, as The FT reports, it appears the Chinese stepped up to the plate to 'help' The ECB (rather The Bundesbank) out from its dilemma. Just as we saw with Chinese selling US Treasuries (whether to diversify away from the major reserve currencies, deal with outflows, or to manage a liquidity crisis at home), The PBoC's reserve management wing, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, has been selling some of its German government bonds since the ECB began buying them in March, say two sources close to central banks in China and Europe. This news has prompted further weakness in Bunds today, despite expectations of Draghi unleashing more buying in December.

US Manufacturing PMI At 7-Month Highs As Canada's Crashes To Record Low (Below China)

Amid a slew of sometimes contradictory Manufacturing data, Canada appears to have suffered the most with its Markit PMI tumbling to 48.0 - a record low. Canada's weakness puts it below China (based on China's Caixin/Markit measure). US manufacturing rose marginally from its preliminary 48.0 print to end October at 48.1, highest since March. Output and New orders are seen rising at the fastest pace since March, but despite this 'strength' Markit is careful to warn a rate hike would be premature.

China Arrests Three High Frequency Traders For "Destabilizing The Market And Profiting From Volatility"

As the crackdown against Zexi was taking place, Shanghai police also arrested 3 suspects as they cracked a case of stock futures price manipulation involving over 11.3 billion yuan (US$1.8 billion), police said yesterday in a statement. According to Shanghai Daily, Yishidun, a commercial company registered in Jiangsu Province’s Zhangjiagang City in 2012, was found to use an illegal stock futures trading software to destabilize the market and profit from volatility.