China

China

Is The Syrian War About To Experience A Major Escalation?

"We’re going to war - either hybrid in nature to break the Russian state back to its 1990s subordination, or a hot war (which will destroy our country). Our citizens should know this, but they don’t because our media is dumbed down in its “Pravda”-like support for our “respectable,” highly aggressive government. We are being led, as C. Wright Mills said in the 1950s, by a government full of “crackpot realists: in the name of realism they’ve constructed a paranoid reality all their own.” Our media has credited Hillary Clinton with wonderful foreign policy experience, unlike Trump, without really noting the results of her power-mongering."

Crude Is Crashing (Again)

What goes up (on the back of a headline about the death of a UK lawmaker) comes down faster (on the back of fundamentals - DOE inventories rising and China demand slowing)...

Eerie Calm Across Markets One Day Before The Main Event: Asia, Europe, US Unchanged

There is an eerie quiet across markets, one day before the year's main risk event: with the UK referendum vote starting in less than 24 hours and results due out shortly after, it is as if even the algos have stopped frontrunning other algos, in a market so thin and illiquid even the smallest order can result in a gap, either higher or lower. As a result, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are little changed ahead of Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index swinging between gains and losses more than five times so far today.

Britain Doesn't Need The EU To Thrive

The history of mankind is a struggle between the individual trying to retain freedoms and tyrannical governments trying to take it away from him. The EU was created to increase freedoms: the freedom of the movement of goods, capital, and people. As expected, it has devolved into an entity that does just the opposite...

Short-Term VIX Premium Soars To Highest Since August Crash

Despite the exuberant rally in stocks following the dreadful murder of UK lawmaker Jo Cox last week, investors are anything but convinced that everything is awesome. As polls show the Brexit vote remains very evenly-matched, so traders have piled into short-term VIX protection (covering the next few days) spiking from 11 to 22 in the last week. This is the widest spread to 'normal' VIX since the August crash following China's turmoil-inducing currency devaluation.

Peak Oil Consumption Dead Ahead (But Price Is Anybody's Guess)

global oil consumption is likely soon to peak (OECD to continue declining; China+Russia+Brazil to begin declining; Africa+India flatlining; the RoW the wildcard)... and all those spouting EIA estimates are likely spouting bogus information. However, this isn't just true for oil consumption but true for most commodity consumption & general consumption world over.

Why A UK Billionaire Believes Brexit Would Be "Good For The UK"

"The EU will disintegrate when we leave. They will realise there is nothing left. The political union is going to be a disaster and they'll want a free-trade area. Do you know who'll be the first country invited to that free trade area? The U.K."

"Whatever It Takes" Wasn't Enough

Bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach made headlines this week with the comments “central banks are losing control.” I would suggest that central bankers actually lost control back in 2012. Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” pledge actually amounted to concerted central bank intervention to shield global markets and economies from the intensifying forces of the downside of a historic Credit Cycle. The global Credit boom persevered for a few more years, right along with historic market distortions and economic maladjustment. Downside risks have grown significantly.