China

China

Priced For Perfection - Why This Burrito Market Is Heading For A Fall

In March 2014 Wall Street’s ex-items S&P 500 earnings forecast for 2015 was about $133 per share; it ended up 20% lower at $106. Yet here they go again - the consensus for 2016 started out at $137 per share last spring, and is just now beginning to make its way back toward the high $120s. It is a barometer of the abject complacency and intellectual sloth that has descended on the casino owing to two decades of Fed coddling and seven year of free money for the carry trades. In the case of Chipotle, it was always just a burrito. In the case of the US and world economy and financial markets, it’s not even that.

How Low Will The Yuan Go? Deutsche Bank Answers

"Until the market acquires greater confidence on the intended scale of currency depreciation as well as the equilibrium level of capital outflows (and effectiveness of capital controls) concerns around China’s currency policy are unlikely to subside any time soon."

The China Narrative That Really Matters

"I get nervous because the next move in China is going to be a political move, and political moves are never well anticipated by markets. The Beijing regime is going to take steps to defend itself, or at least insulate itself, from the growing Narrative that they are incompetent. Heads will roll. Literally, in all likelihood. But the incompetence genie is very hard to stuff back into the bottle, and depending on whose head is on the chopping block, regime stability can deteriorate very quickly. Now that's what will make me change my bullish stance on China fundamentals, and that's what will make the US market swoon of last August look like a gentle spring rain."

US Stocks Give Up "China Is Fixed" Gains

Small Caps have been red most of the day but the major US equity indices clung valiantly to hopeful "China is fixed... and what about Jobs" gains (despite the recessionary print in wholesale data). But that is all over now... The S&P 500 and Dow have now broken down and turned red for the day...

RBS: "This Is Simply The Worst Week We Had In Recent History... After Too Much Policy Kool-aid"

This week is simply the worst we had in recent history for markets, RBS exclaims, the worst ever start to the year for The Dow, the worst since 1999 for S&P and the second-worst for credit since 2008. Worst still is, they think there’s more weakness ahead and that many fundamental risks will continue to haunt markets. Why? Simple! Investors drank too much policy kool-aid last year.

"The Least Important Payrolls Report In A While": What Wall Street Expects

Now that the Fed has commenced its rate hike cycle, the jobs report suddenly takes on far less significance because only a massively "outlier" print will have an impact on Fed thinking, thinking which so far appears undented despite a raging manufacturing recession across the US. This means that the December jobs could be the "most important ever" only in retrospect.

Frontrunning: January 8

  • U.S. jobs market seen fairly healthy despite slowing economy (Reuters)
  • China State Funds Said to Buy More Shares After Market Rout (BBG)
  • Global Stocks Gain Some Respite (WSJ)
  • U.S. Jobs Data Take on Added Importance With Markets in Turmoil (BBG)
  • GOP Health Plans Are Works in Progress (WSJ)
  • For economy czar of crisis-hit Venezuela, inflation 'does not exist' (Reuters)

Internal War Is Now On The Horizon For America

As our situation in this country becomes more precarious, there are going to be far more flashpoints than anyone will be able to keep track of. It is inevitable that a fight between corrupt elements of the U.S. government and regular people will erupt.If internationalists were to get their way fully with the world and future historians write their analysis from a globalist perspective of the defunct American nation, they will probably say simply that our collapse was brought about by our own incompetence - that we were our own worst enemy. Yes, they would treat America as a cliché. They will of course leave out the destructive influences and engineered disasters of elitists, that would just complicate the narrative. My hope is that we do not prove these future historians correct, and that they won’t have an opportunity to exist.

2016: Oil Limits & The End Of The Debt Supercycle

The problem of reaching limits in a finite world manifests itself in an unexpected way: slowing wage growth for non-elite workers. Lower wages mean that these workers become less able to afford the output of the system. These problems first lead to commodity oversupply and very low commodity prices. Eventually these problems lead to falling asset prices and widespread debt defaults. These problems are the opposite of what many expect, namely oil shortages and high prices. This strange situation exists because the economy is a networked system. Feedback loops in a networked system don’t necessarily work in the way people expect.

Here We Go Again: Chinese Stocks Plunge, Give Up Early Gains Despite Yuan Fix Unchanged

Update: *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX FALLS 2.04%(AFTER BEING UP 3.2%)

With all eyes on Chinese FX and equity markets, following the worst start to a year for US (and Chinese) stocks in history, PBOC decided (after 7 straight days of devaluation and 7% devaluation since August) to halt the run and increase Yuan fix by a paltry 0.01% to 6.5636 (notably below yesterday's 6.5939 CNY close). Offshore Yuan is strengthening and US equity markets are jumping. Chinese equity markets (now theoretically unhampered by their circuit-breaker panic switch) are far less impressed.

It's Official: Bitcoin Was The Top Performing Currency Of 2015

For most investors, the major story of 2015 was the expectation and eventual fulfillment of a rate hike, signalling the start of tightening monetary policy in the United States. This policy is divergent to those of other major central banks, and this has translated into considerable strength and momentum for the U.S. dollar. Despite this strength, the best performing currency in 2015 was not the dollar. In fact, the top currency of 2015 is likely to be considered the furthest thing from the greenback.