China

China

Trump Demands For Border Wall Funding May Force Government Shutdown Next Week

After a week of flip-flops on everything from the value of NATO to labeling China a currency manipulator, moves which quickly earned him the moniker of 'flipper-in-chief' from a disgruntled base, Trump, under internal pressure to show legislative achievements ahead of the 100-day mark, is gearing up for a government shutdown fight to secure money for a border wall, more immigration enforcement officers and a bigger military.

Crispin Odey: "It Feels Lonely Being Bearish"

"A year ago it was easy to be bearish. China was slowing, world trade was creaking, Europe was not recovering and the oil price was hitting new lows. A year later to be bearish feels lonely... When we look back at this madness, some people will feel ashamed. Twisted facts and twisted logic may be met in the quiet of the night by reality. "

Frontrunning: April 20

  • White House to risk shutdown as Trump searches for “win” (Politico)
  • Saudi Minister Wants OPEC Oil-Production Deal Extended, Perhaps for Less Than 6 Months (WSJ)
  • Russia denies Reuters report think tank drew up plan to sway U.S. election (Reuters)
  • Fed's Kaplan: Three rate rises this year 'still a good baseline' (Reuters)
  • Ex-Arconic CEO Sent Vague Threat to Hedge-Fund Boss (WSJ)

Europe And S&P Futures Higher, Dollar Drops As OPEC Talks Oil Up

European stocks rose amid earnings beats, offsetting weakness in the energy sector and easing investor concerns ahead of the weekend’s French election. Asian shares and U.S. futures also rise. The dollar weakens against the euro and most crosses, while crude oil rebounds following renewed OPEC chatter of a production cut, this time with Saudi Arabia seemingly onboard.

Why The Crude Rally Has Fizzled - Part 1

Prices had been trading comfortably above $50/b since late March, with bulls re-trenching on the idea that Saudi-led OPEC supply cut will soon tighten balances. And while today’s price declines could prove temporary, a measure of caution is advised to all bulls, for two key reasons — reasons that we’ve been watching closely since November.

Goldman Warns 1-In-3 Chance Of Government Shutdown In May

Goldman's Jan Hatzius believes the odds of a government shutdown next week are fairly low, but rise to around one in three if the debate extends into May. A shutdown at the start of the next fiscal year, in October, is a greater risk in their view.

What A War With North Korea Would Probably Look Like

So, if war with North Korea is inevitable given the circumstances, what would such a war look like? Here are some elements I think are most important; elements that make the war almost unwinnable, if winning is even the purpose

Japanese Trade Surplus Slumps To 14-Month Lows As Exports, Imports Surge

Japanese adjusted trade balance tumbles over 500 billion yen in March (after surging around 500 billion yen in February) as lunar new year effects washed out and left the lowest trade surplus since January 2016. Exports (up 12% YoY) and Imports (up 15.8% YoY) both soared at the fastest pace in years.

Is Trump About To Flip Again: Ryan Says "TTIP Good For Global Order"

From Obamacare to NATO, and from Ex-Im Bank to Chinese currency manipulators, President Trump has shown he is comfortable changing his mind 'bigly'. Today's exuberant support for "TTIP as good for global order," from Speaker Ryan, following VP Pence's meetings in Japan, raises questions about whether Trump's executive order withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement is the next big flip-flop.

Chinese Carmakers, Volkswagen, BMW Roll Out "Tesla Killers"

The much anticipated Tesla Model 3 has yet to be released and already a groundswell of electric car competition is forming to challenge Elon Musk's upcoming offering. Start in China, where the Model 3 is not due to arrive until next year, but already Chinese-funded, smart, connected plug-in car start-ups are scrambling to launch "Tesla killer" cars to go head-to-head against Tesla "mass market" sedan.