China

Important pillars of the bull case evaporated throughout 2015. Global price pressures weakened, the global Credit backdrop deteriorated and the global economy decelerated. The huge bets on central bank policies left markets at high risk for abrupt reversals and trade unwinds – 2015 The Year of the Erratic Crowded Trade. Indeed, a global bear market commenced yet most remain bullish. Serious and objective analysts would view this ominously.

The deeper we dig into the story of Dubai's vaporized gold, the more skeletons just tumble out of the closet on what may be the world's biggest gold smuggling ring ever, one involving not just Turkey and Iran, but the mother of all gold smuggling: China itself...

As 2016 begins, there are clear signs of serious debt/default squalls on the horizon. We can already see the first white-capped waves.

For those wondering what comes to mind for the average Chinese web surfer with regard to nations in Europe, we present the following map from Foreign Policy who “plotted the most common Chinese-language Baidu query for each European nation.” Highlights include "likes to fight" for Russia, "why doesn't it annex Portugal" for Spain, and "beautiful women" for Ukraine.

The seventh anniversary of Zero Hedge is just around the corner, and so, for the seventh year in a row we continue our tradition of summarizing what our readers found to be the most relevant, exciting, and actionable news of the year, determined by the number of page views. We bring you the articles that you, dear reader, found to be the most interesting in the past 365 days.

Elections, elections, and more elections is the 'regime change' meme for 2016 but, as Bloomberg details, the key events of the year ahead vary from a California marijuana referendum to Brazil's Olympics, and from Davos to SCOTUS. No matter what, 2016 holds a lot of opportunity for volatility, and without The Fed's safety net, who knows what that means for markets...

The unfolding correction of the visible excesses of the credit inflation - such as overinvestment and malinvestment - will destroy incomes and profits; the Great Unwind of the less visible effects, such as the sovereign wealth fund liquidations, are a giant pin aimed squarely at the monumental worldwide bubbles in stock, bonds and real estate.

For example, the world population continues to grow, good farming land with proper soil management is a finite resource, and the world is going to need more food in the future.

As WSJ reports, "more than two dozen companies and groups and one foreign government paid former President Bill Clinton a total of more than $8 million to give speeches around the time they also had matters before Mrs. Clinton’s State Department."

The latest Chinese company to mysteriously "misplace" its books and as a result be unable to make an upcoming bond payment is China Shanshui Cement: "a former director of Shandong Shanshui, together with a group of gangsters, barged into the Headquarters by force on 27 December 2015, destroyed the properties in the offices therein and assaulted the employees of Shandong Shanshui."

Between Draghi's disappointment, Kuroda's un-dovishness, China's currency war, and flailing faith in The Fed (as policy errors loom), it appears European stocks were not the "no brainer" investment everyone promised them to be after all. December's 5% plunge was the worst for this time of year since 2002 (2nd worst on record).

As tensions continue to rise in both the South China Sea (see the recent protest by dozens of Filipinos in the Spratlys) and the East China Sea (where Beijing and Tokyo are feuding over disputed islands and claims on oil and gas fields), the PLA has begun building China's second aircraft carrier in yet another sign that Xi fully intends to build a true blue water navy.

America has never - ever - avoided a recession when Chicago's Business Barometer has collapsed to these levels. At 42.9, missing the expectations of 50.0 by the most ever, down from 48.7 in November, the final US economic data point of the year sums up perfectly what a disaster Yellen has hiked rates into.

Despite such endless financial engineering, sales for the S&P 500 have been declining for the last three quarters. And profits have declined for the first time since the 2009 expansion. Simply put: The recovery is a mirage... It isn’t real... And it isn’t sustainable.

• Oil ends 2015 in downbeat mood; hangover to be long, painful (Reuters)
• Recession, retrenchment, revolution? Impact of low crude prices on oil powers (Guardian)
• Midwest Flooding Might Make the Oil Glut Worse (BBG)
• From Oil Glut to Shortage? Some Say It Could Happen (WSJ)
• Ten Years After Blowup, Amaranth Investors Waiting to Get Money Back (WSJ)
• China Fires a Warning Shot at Yuan Speculators With Bank Bans (BBG)