China

As readers will recall, at the end of July, which was the most recent TIC data update, China owned $847 billion in US Treasury bonds. Since then, the world's reserve currency, which is what said Treasuries are denominated in, has lost 4.7%, or $40 billion in real terms. Yet an even more jarring observation is that from its June highs, the USD has dropped 12.4%. Expressed in real terms from the perspective of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, this means that our biggest creditor has lost over $100 billion when adjusted for the purchasing power loss in the dollar.

A pair of very conflicting news articles over the weekend about secret currency talks caps yet another week full of central bank interventions in the FX arena (and, as Bruce Krasting points out, many more to come). Yesterday, the FT reported that France and China had been in secret talks over "heightened co-ordination of exchange rates" which is another way of saying finding alternatives to the rapidly debasing US Dollar. "The talks and their content have been kept secret, in an attempt to draw China into a discussion on global currency co-ordination, a subject that Beijing has been reluctant to countenance in the past. In an ambitious move reminiscent of the currency accords of the 1980s, President Nicolas Sarkozy hopes to open a debate on the subject when France takes over the presidency of the G20 group of leading nations in November, according to people familiar with the matter." Yet China's desire to engage in a currency axis away from the US is no secret, and many have alleged that Beijing has approached both Russia and Germany in the past about a USD substitute. The timing of the latest escalation of the battle to the currency bottom is not surprising: "The move comes against the background of rising concern over exchange-rate interventions by a host of countries, most notably China but also Japan and South Korea, to prevent their currencies from rising against the dollar." Perhaps China, which has been reticent in exposing its CNY domination plans in the past, was just waiting for the correct provocation to go public with its plans. And last week's move by Congress to retaliate against China and impose duties on imports because of undervaluation may be just that provocation.

Sure looks that way....

Here is how you kill two birds with one stone, all the while confirming that Europe has been about a step away from a full collapse. Greece, which like Ireland, has been unable to peddle its bonds to anyone now that Bunds spreads are back to all time record levels, has just seen the last white knight of the Keynesian system come to its rescue: China. As Bloomberg reports, the European lender of last resort is no longer the ECB: "China has already bought and holds its Greek bonds,” Wen
said in joint comments with Papandreou today, which were carried
live on state-run ET-1 television. “It commits, very
positively, to buy new bonds to be issued by Greece." Yet herein lies the rub: in exchange for the Chinese last-ditch rescue financing, which by the way is so transparent that everybody, except maybe for the Norwegian wealth fund will see right through it, Greece, in what is an almost identical replica of the Petrobras shell game, will use the money to turn around and buy Chinese ships. "Wen said a $5 billion shipping fund will be set up to
tighten relations between the countries’ two maritime industries
and facilitate the sale of Chinese vessels to Greeks." Truly brilliant what Keynesians will come up with in the last days of a collapsing economic religion.

China has created a monster for itself that has already begun to turn on its master, and will one day devour it.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left. - Bertrand Russell

The U.S. SEC denied the application by China's Dagong credit rating firm of NRSRO status citing concern with cross boarder supervision. Dagong immediately issued an angry rebuff calling the SEC’s decision discriminatory, and that Dagong aims to enter the U.S. market to protect China's interests as the largest creditor there.

Ever wonder how China can endlessly generate goal-seeked GDP of precisely 8.00001% year after year? Or how it can constantly find use for the massive and ever-larger surplus of warehoused commodities? Simple - never stop building. Which, apparently means blowing up empty building before they are even finished and rebuilding them. Rinse. Repeat. After all gotta keep all those construction workers from rioting, and all those USD reserves redirected into Brazilian and OZ commodities, now that China is not really buying US debt anymore. China Hush has some stunning pictures confirming that in its search of the great home bubble perpetual engine, the politbureau comrades may have stumbled onto the bricks and mortar equivalent of Shangri La.

Things are getting wierder and wiered: China has confirmed it has detained 4 Japanese officials due to "violation of a Chinese law relating to protection of military facilities." Xinhua reports: "The state security authorities in Shijiazhuang, capital of Hebei, have taken measures against the four people according to law after receiving a report about their illegal activities." It is unclear if the four suggested recommending nuking the 3 Gorges dam for risk of cracks and terminal collapse during the next massive earthquake. Next up: Chinese defense forces amassing in Manchuria. In other news President Obama believes he can tell Hu Jintao what to do...

And now the idiot politicians are finally really involved: Reuters reports that the House will vote this coming Friday to pressure China into revaluing its currency (uh... what?). While it is unclear just what passage of this law will do (send letters full of harsh language signed "Love Schumer", or pretend Americans will no longer buy iPads and Kindles, or better yet, offer to pay a refund to the $840 billion in US bonds held by the Chinese), this will merely accelerate the collapse of world trade into all out protectionism. As we presented a week ago, Goldman's Alec Phillips was right. His conclusion offers some hope that traditional trade relations won't collapse for at least a few more months: "We think that the risk that such legislation is enacted this year is still fairly low. There is little time left on the legislative calendar, and not yet a clear legislative strategy. That said, we also don’t expect this issue to disappear after the election, given that the current political reaction is driven by the weak economy and labor market as much as it is by the political cycle." Yet with the Democrats calling this vote, it is inevitable that it will pass. What happens next is really anyone's guess.

Some disturbingly insightful observations from UBS Macro Sales' John Clemmow: "Risk On - Risk Off is caused by the Chinese government alternatively pressing the accelerator before slamming on the brake of the only part of the economy they can directly control. Fear of unemployment cause the government to step on the gas - dread of cost-push inflation the need to apply the break."

President Obama and Secretary Geithner are talking yuan tough again as the currency has risen only 1.53% since June. Economists estimate the yuan is undervalued by 12% to 40%. This makes yuan an effective political diversion of the high U.S. unemployment in an election year. The prevailing argument in Washington is that a yuan appreciation would bring manufacturing jobs back to America. Nevertheless, I believe this is overly hyped, exaggerated, and mostly politically motivated. Besides, not everyone is as certain about how large a role the RMB's value would play in the U.S. economy.

On the anniversary of the 1931 Japanese invasion of China, tensions between the world's second and third largest economies are escalating. The Associated Press reports that late Sunday, China broke off high-level government contacts with Japan "over the extended detention of a fishing boat captain arrested near disputed islands. The rare move pushed already tense relations to a new low, and showed China's willingness to play hardball with its Asian rival on issues of territorial integrity." The latest straw on the camel's back was the detention of a Chinese fishing boat and its captain, after it hit two Japanese Coast Guard boats in the East China Sea, a territory claimed by both countries, as previously reported by Zero Hedge.Furthermore, " the captain's detention for further questioning — pending a decision
about whether to press charges — has inflamed ever-present anti-Japanese
sentiment in China." China reaction has been swift and merciless, proving just great the ego of the now second largest economy, and largest holder of US debt, has become: "Beijing has suspended ministerial and provincial-level contacts,
halted talks on aviation issues and postponed a meeting to discuss
coal." Also, attached pictures of Japanese flag burning can not instill much confidence in Sino-Japanese relations stabilizing any time soon.

Today's TIC data came in showing a surprising and robust inflow of foreign capital into the US in the month of July, with a net inflow of $61.2 billion on expectations of $47.5 billion, and a solid jump from last month's $44.4 billion. On a gross basis, purchases of a total of $74.8 billion in US securities consisted of $30 billion in Treasurys, and $17.3 billion in Agencies, but more surprisingly $13.9 billion in Corporate Bonds and $12.5 billion in Corporate Stocks. The last two categories were outliers consider the prior two months had seen outflows in foreign holdings of both bonds and stocks (a total of $27 billion across the two categories for both months). What may or may not come as much of a surprise is that of the $74.8 billion in total Long-Term investments, pretty much all of it came from capital originating in Japan ($29.7 billion) and the UK ($30.9 billion). Ah, good old UK, which as a covert depot for central bank operations, is now no longer content with accumulating Treasurys at a torrid pace, now holding a total of $374.3 billion (a $12 billion increase M/M), but is also aggressively bidding up bonds and stocks. In July the UK (which itself can barely fund its own QE-prompted deficit funding), also bought $12.4 billion in corporate bonds and $2 billion in corporate stocks.

Well, that didn't take long. Just headline for now, will bring more asap.

BN 11:32 *U.S. SAYS IT WILL FILE TWO NEW WTO CASES AGAINST CHINA

BN 11:33 *U.S. SAYS WTO CHINA CASES ARE ON STEEL, FINANCIAL SERVICES