China

I presented my thesis on China and Japan at my alma mater University of Colorado at Denver at International Executive Roundtable yesterday. Here is updated version of my China presentation.

Headline for now: Dow Jones: China To Gradually Adopt Floating Exchange-Rate System Under Management

A report issued by the US Joint Forces Command has a rather bleak view on US oil production, and on peak oil in general. In a foreword to the report issued by General James Mattis, he warns that "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day." Does this mean that oil, just like in the Bush administration, is about to become a "strategic interest", which coupled with the upcoming discoveries of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, would result in some additional geopoltical tensions particularly in the middle east? With nuclear tensions between Iran and Israel already at boiling hot levels, will Uncle Sam decide to make landfall in the Persian Gulg once again? More from the General: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India." Well, Mr. Chanos, there's your catalyst. We just hope that the negative carry of a five year short position is palatable to your LPs.

A few days ago we highlighted Richard Koo's most recent media appearance here. Below we provide his most recent presentation extolling the virtues of unbridled Keynesianism. Keynes' ideas may have been an operable theory when the world was not leveraged 100% debt/GDP (and 400% total debt including assorted off balance sheet items). Now, it is not. And everyone who blindly pushes for endless stimuli will find out that the endplay to Keynes' fatally flawed economic theory is sovereign default. And yes, that certainly includes the default of the country which is pring the most paper.

Reuters reports that according to two "sources" the Chinese economy grew at a 11.9% rate in Q1, compared to expectations of 11.5%. Of course, the rate of growth is 10 bps below where the economy is considered to be in the official redline, and rates hikes become inevitable. And even as the economy surges, inflation is somehow supposed to come in under expectations: "Consumer price inflation in March was roughly 2.4 percent, one of the sources said. That would be a deceleration from the 2.7 percent rate in February and below forecasts of 2.6 percent." As the source of the leak appears to have been greenlighted by China, we should expect the daytrading algos which trade only on leak catalysts, to have a field day frontrunning each other on all Chinese issues, as they leave the Ambac corpse behind. "The numbers heard by Reuters matched those reported earlier on Wednesday by China Business News, a Chinese-language newspaper which cited an unidentified source."

Roubini, who recently made headlines by discussing his grim outlook for "the barbarous relic", discusses the trade deficit, the Fed's (lack of an) exit strategy, China, and, once again, gold, about which he says: "“In my view, gold is not going to rise to the levels $1,500, $2,000 the gold bugs argue because gold tends to sharply rise only under two conditions. Either there's a significant increase in inflation - and in US, Europe, Japan, we worry more about deflation than inflation. Or gold rises when there is really risk aversion like after the collapse of Lehman or a year ago when the banks US looked like borderline insolvent. So we have avoided the tail risk of a near depression. So gold prices shouldn't go higher. And for now, there is more deflation than inflation. So for the time being, I see gold in a very narrow range, not shooting up much higher than current levels."

Gary Shilling is now firmly in the anti-China contrarian bandwagon. In this interview with Bloomberg's Erik Schtazker the legendary investor, who called Japan's lost decade when everyone was just as bullish on Japan as Goldman is now on China, Shilling shares the same view on Chinese record excess capacity as Hugh Hendry did some months ago: "You can't trust the [Chinese] numbers... They have kickstarted their economy in the last year - it's a stop go economy, they can do it fast, they don't have to worry about EPA audits, they just let the bulldozers roll when they want to build a new road or whatever. The point is they build an awful lot of excess capacity and the question is how are they going to use it because American consumers aren't buying their exports the way they used to and their domestic economy isn't that strong... Chinese consumer spending is 36% of GDP and is a declining share over the last two decades. They don't have a a big enough middle class. In China there were 110 million people with over $5k per capita income, enough to give them discretionary spending but that was only 8% of the population. In this country it is 80% of the population." And on the yuan: "If they took off all the controls and Chinese could invest abroad, the yuan would probably go down because people would want to diversify... I think the political leaders are aware of that possibility they sure don't want to be pushed around, and Obama made a huge in trying to push them again. Remember China was dominated by European in the last century and they want to run their own country." While we completely agree with Schilling, we believe that the current transformation in US society, which is in the last throws of contract abrogation, in not paying mortgage and credit card bills, we may well see a last push in Chinese imports, after which any disposable income in the US middle class will plunge and will take the US economy down with it as well. The problem, as we have repeatedly pointed out, the cash return on such "assets" as iPads and Kindles is zero, not nearly enough to pay down 39.95% APR credit cards.

Moments after China's $7.2 billion March trade deficit was announced, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce was blasting away at critics of the CNY peg. According to Market News, the MofComm stated that "the recent steady decline in China's trade surplus and the trade deficit post in March again show that the yuan exchange rate is not the key determinant in the country's foreign trade balance." He has a good point - what is, is the endless printing of paper money by China used to keep its residential sector screaming ever higher, while at the same time taking advantage of the same generosity from Ben Bernanke across the Pacific, which in turn benefits China just as much as it does the US. The reason is simple - continued destruction of the dollar, which will commence shortly, will benefit China as well, further facilitating its export economy, while its own printing goes straight to boosting imports. In this way, the confrontation of Chinese and US monetary policy can be seen nowhere better than in the Chinese balance of trade: and judging by the increasing trade deficit, the Fed's influence is starting to wane. Soon enough, when the Fed's marginal impact on the CNY is negligible (via dollar printing and via the CNY peg which is not going away any time soon), China will truly have no other option but to rely on its own consumer class, even as it still seeks to reap the benefits of increasing exports. Our belief is that the deficit will drift slowly higher, however what will become evident will be the ever greater absolute amount of both imports and exports in China.

In March China recorded its first trade deficit after 70 straight months of trade surpluses, which has occurred even despite global calls that the Renminbi needs to be revalued by about 20%. The primary reason for this was that in March China imported a total of $119.4 billion worth of goods - the single greatest amount recorded in history. This was offset by $112.1 billion of exports, well below the record exports China was pumping out in late 2008 in the mid $130 billion range, and the $130.7 billion exported in December of 2009. Below we present a summary of the key highlights of China trade balance over the past 3 years.

In a Charlie Rose interview to air later, Jim Chanos repeats his warning about all hell breaking loose once the China bubble bursts and puts a timeline on the event - late 2010 or 2011. "Supply will equal demand at some point. It always does, and then there is this precarious tipping point when suddenly you can't sell a project and then it's just as if everyone from the port side of the cruise ship goes to the starboard side of the cruise ship all at once. You get a tipping point, you get this light-bulb moment - "I've got to get out while I can." And the buyers dry out. It's as old as market itself." Chanos also voices his opinion on the CNY, and ever the contrarian, he, just like Edwards and Zero Hedge, implies that the CNY is actually overvalued, contrary to what the NYT's paywall may want you to believe: "Chinese exports aren't the problem here. And what if it turns out that by having to nationalize lots and lots of real estate bad debts, the RNB is devalued." All spot on, however we disagree with Chanos' conclusion that this is something that nobody is expecting: note here and here.

Geithner and the Obama Administration are rolling the dice with its China policy in a very high stakes game. They are trying to force China to revalue the yuan. If we crap out, we face the possibility of trade wars and a collapse of international trade. I believe they don't understand what they are doing. This is big. Don't count on politicians to do the right thing.

As was expected in light of recent FX moderating overtures by Beijing, China will not find out if it is or is not a currency manipulator on April 15. The NYT reports that the decision from the Treasury will be deferred until after China President Hu Jintao visit Washington. "China experts said it was unlikely that China would have agreed to the visit unless there was at least an informal assurance by the Treasury Department that it would not be named a currency manipulator either on or around April 15 — the deadline for the Obama administration to submit one of its twice-a-year reports on foreign exchange to Congress." This does not mean that China will refloat the CNY, but that we are merely back to square one, after some loud TV appearances by politicians, and some even louder columns written recently by so-called pundits.

In what could be a first step to appeasing the US and its requests for CNY revaluation, Caijing has reported that China may be considering expanding the daily yuan trading band. The yuan currently fluctuates up to 0.5% around the central CNYUSD parity set by the PBoC - today, for example, the CNY was stronger by 1 pip from 6.8264 to 6.8263. As reported by Market News, citing an
unidentified Chinese government source, "If the central bank does not want to see a quick rate hike, a
better way to fight inflation would be to expand the daily yuan trading
band to allow the yuan to appreciate properly." One interpretation of this development is that China, anticipating a delay of the Treasury report widely expected to brand China a currency manipulator, will placate the US just marginally and split the baby in the middle, by allowing a trading band expansion. Of course, this will do nothing to actually revalue the Yuan, devalue the dollar and boost US exports, but it will allow the Obama administration to save face and say "look, China made a concession" which the teleprompter will explain is an indication that the Obama administration now has the upper hand in Sino-US negotiations, followed by a round of applause from yet more to be soon unemployed people.

On April 15 the Treasury will issue its report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies. Following a massive push by politicians and economic pundits alike, the probability that China will be branded a currency manipulator is extremely high, if not certain. Following the last few days of adverse developments in the Google censorship saga, it is unlikely that China will accept that particular title with a wink and a smile. And while China was previously named a currency manipulator in the past, the last time this occurred was in 1994. To say that a lot has changed since then is an understatement. What happens after April 15, 2010 is anyone's guess, although for some perspective of the bullish cash, here is Goldman with their range of expected consequences. Of course, what is good for Goldman is bad for Goldman's clients so keep that in mind, especially since this is a sell-side piece.