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Soc Gen: "Expect New Equity Lows In H2", China Is The Global Achilles Heel





Just released, a new and highly relevant Weekly Strategy report out from Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. Not only does Edwards, who was previously vilified then praised for calling the 1997 Asian Bubble, see a significant drop in equities before the end of the year, his main concern is every optimist's greatest green shoot: China.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Soc Gen: "Expect New Equity Lows In H2", China Is The Global Achilles Heel





Just released, a new and highly relevant Weekly Strategy report out from Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. Not only does Edwards, who was previously vilified then praised for calling the 1997 Asian Bubble, see a significant drop in equities before the end of the year, his main concern is every optimist's greatest green shoot: China.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Soc Gen: "Expect New Equity Lows In H2", China Is The Global Achilles Heel





Just released, a new and highly relevant Weekly Strategy report out from Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. Not only does Edwards, who was previously vilified then praised for calling the 1997 Asian Bubble, see a significant drop in equities before the end of the year, his main concern is every optimist's greatest green shoot: China.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Peter Navarro On The China Problem





In another surprisingly unmoderated interview on CNBC, UC Irvine professor Peter Navarro brings some relevant insight on why the Chinese problem is much more than the simplified question of whether or not they will keep buying Treasuries. Also, the commentary on Chinese students laughing in Geithner's face is always refreshing, and shockingly uncensored for a CNBC audience.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Obama Selling Military Secrets To China For Debt Forgiveness?





Ran across this article posted in Jumping In Pools. Not sure how credible it is, but allegedly Barack Obama will provide the blueprints for the B-2 stealth bomber to China in exchange for $50 billion in debt relief. According to author Richard Hogarty:

 
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Short rates are not due to China, Fed QE





In a continued trend of low short rates, Bloomberg reports that not much has changed since late last year. This time around, they are ascribing it to central banks snapping up bills in anticipation of Fed QE, specifically China, rather than reduced risk sentiment on the part of investors.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Short rates are not due to China, Fed QE





In a continued trend of low short rates, Bloomberg reports that not much has changed since late last year. This time around, they are ascribing it to central banks snapping up bills in anticipation of Fed QE, specifically China, rather than reduced risk sentiment on the part of investors.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Short rates are not due to China, Fed QE





In a continued trend of low short rates, Bloomberg reports that not much has changed since late last year. This time around, they are ascribing it to central banks snapping up bills in anticipation of Fed QE, specifically China, rather than reduced risk sentiment on the part of investors.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: The Real Implications Of China's Currency Policy





Submitted by Ranjan Roy of Shadow Bankers

 
Tyler Durden's picture

China Escalates Treasury Purchasing Debate





The topic of whether China has decided it has had enough of U.S. Treasuries, or is just posturing, has gained significant traction recently. The latest development comes from Luo Ping, an official at the China Banking Regulatory Commission, who said holding U.S. government bonds "is not the only option for investing reserves." According to Bloomberg:

 
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China Wants U.S. Treasury Guarantees





In a day when the schizophrenic market's antipsychotics finally kicked in, the scariest piece of news did not come out until very late, and this one has the potential to really throw the Treasury a curveball. Yo Yongding (cruel, cruel parents), former advisor to China's Central Bank is agitating China to seek guarantees on its $682 billion of U.S. Treasury Holdings, so that these do not get eroded by "reckless policies."

Bloomberg has the following to say:

 
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U.S. Treasury Purchases Surprisingly Not Reliant on China





The Council on Foreign Relations has done a great independent analysis of who has been buying U.S. Treasuries in 2008. In a nutshell, the US managed to place $1.3 trillion of USTs with non-Chinese investors.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

U.S. Treasury Purchases Surprisingly Not Reliant on China





The Council on Foreign Relations has done a great independent analysis of who has been buying U.S. Treasuries in 2008. In a nutshell, the US managed to place $1.3 trillion of USTs with non-Chinese investors.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

China Q4 Annualized GDP: 6.8%; CPI: 1.2%; PPI: -1.1%





GDP at 6.8% was not a surprise: it was Right on top of expectations. This is compared to 9.0% for the same period last year.
PPI came out at -1.1%, a whole 100 bps lower than consensus, and much lower from the 2% last year.
CPI was 1.2% versus an expectation of 1.6%. The decline in CPI indicates deflation is picking up; the more notable decline in the PPI is more troubling as it is a leading indicator for much lower CPI numbers down the line.

 
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China GDP Number out Late Today





At 9PM Eastern, the Chinese will announce their Q4 annualized GDP YoY change number. The consensus is 6.8% according to Bloomberg. This is a drop from 9% as of the prior reading. As Paul Kedrosky observes, the likelihood for a (much) lower number should not be excluded... 0% China GDP growth was presented as one of the major fat tail events of 2009 which in the current market environment means it is an almost virtual certainty.

 
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