China

~ Information Technology, Social Media & the Structural Integrity of the Internet in the 21st Century ~ after China got caught with its hand in Google's POP3 Port 995 cookie jar, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton fired THE first salvo in what will likely prove itself to be the terrain of WW III ~ the digital battlefield. This highlight is intended to set the stage for a short-series that will delve deeper into the multivariate 'strategery' of the issue du jour ~ China, Computers & Freedom in the 21st Century.

Yesterday we brought attention to China's overheating economy. In response, Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Spencer is now estimating an earlier than expected rate hike for the newly-minted second largest world economy. "We think January CPI inflation will be similar to December, but in February inflation could rise to 2.5%, above the 2.25% benchmark deposit rate. This implies some likelihood of the first rate hike coming in the second half of March, earlier than our current expectation of an April rate hike." Just look at China markets at what tightening means for equities. Then extrapolate to the U.S., once Bernanke someday wakes up on the right side of the bed and realizes that America is in a very much comparable situation (although 10.7% GDP growth would be something even Obama would have some problems with digesting). And now that Volcker is finally about to supplant the soon to be defunct Larry Summers as Obama's key financial advisor, one can extend Deutsche's conclusion and say that the rate hike in the U.S. may also come earlier than expected.

Here is a glimpse at an internal debate between BoomBustBlog analysts on the merits of the China bubble short, and its comparison on the merits to a short in the EU and CEE contries. It appears as if the China bubble thing is about to heat up.

Chinese GDP is officially in the redzone: at 10.7% YoY, while Q3 was revised to 9.1%. For all of 2009, Chinese GDP rose at 9.7% (2008 came in at 9.6%): China's mystical printing machine helped the country avoid any aspect of the global recession, and these are not the droids we are looking for. At the same time the country announced a 1.9% CPI increase YoY in December, even as 2009 saw a -0.7% decline in CPI, compared to a 5.9% increase in 2008. Retail sales in 2009 surged at 15.5% nominal and 17.5% real.

As you recall, my take on the deflation vs inflation debate is much less crystal ball-ish than many other pundits on the web. I never was very much into fortune telling or forecasting the future. From what I observed and researched, if I had to make a call that call would be stagflation.

On that note, here is an interesting note from one of my site's subscribers on how China is exporting to what is amounting to stagflation to the United States, now!

Pray tell, how can anyone in their right mind trust the economic reporting of company that says it is running 13 cylinders of an 8 cylinder engine leading the world to economic recovery when they overtly, and without denial, censor free speech and publicly outlaw research and even Internet searches on government activities?

Recently China has once again attained prominent status among the investment community, where while the majority still adheres to the old, permabullish view that Chinese risks are contained, increasingly more fund managers are convinced that the Beijing-based central-planned economy is due for a major pullback. One such one investor, as we pointed out previously, is Jim Chanos, whose exemplary track record means his opinion should never be ignored. Somehow we doubt Chanos is much insulted by Jim Rogers' derogatory remarks of his understanding of the China situation. He who laughs last...

We present critical observations by Corriente Advisors which incorporate all the salient ideas of Chanos, Edwards, Grice and other such skeptics into a fluid narrative which is a must read for all fascinated by the topic of China.

To further illustrate the point presented in the previous article discussing the variance between the increase in Chinese FX Reserves and UST Holdings, we demonstrate the cumulative differential between October 2008 and September 2009 in these two series. During the time, China's FX reserves have grown by $392 billion, while its UTS holdings have increased by $115 billion: a $278 billion differential. Furthermore, estimates call for the December 31 FX number to grow to $2.4 trillion, which would be a $520 billion increase, while according to TIC we know that October Chinese bond holdings were the same as September. Whether these surged in November and December should be sufficient to determine if there is any validity to the Direct Bidder hypothesis presented earlier.

One topic that has caught the mainstream media's attention is the recent surge in Direct Bid take down participation in Treasury auctions, which as we pointed out previously (3 Year auction, 10 Year auction), has jumped from sub 10% average well into the double digit arena. Today the Financial Times dedicates an entire article to questioning just who may be going all out in their purchases of Treasuries as a direct bidder. We suggest that this "bid" is none other than China funding Direct covert purchases of Treasuries as an extension of the Fed's Quantitative Easing policy.

In an extremely intriguing development today Google threatened to close down its China operations after unearthing a highly sophisticated attack aimed at accessing gmail accounts of Chinese human-rights activists. According to Google the attacks originated in China and included accounts of U.S. and E.U. based activists. Google made the announcement today in its blog-post titled "A New Approach to China".

While some China Bears are busy publicizing prediciton of an utter Dubai or Enron-like collapse in China, Beijing is actually in the process of rebalancing its economy and an overheated real estate market. And gold is poised to benefit the most from this shift.

After posting a record crude-oil import month in December, as well as the second highest iron-ore import month in history, China's program economy is roaring back to life, even if the imports are actually sitting in full warehouses, used to build empty cities that consume negative electricity, make washing machines that never launder anything except the government's flawed economic statistics, and create cars that somehow use up ever-less gasoline. Of course, when the government has trillions in increasingly worthless excess dollar foreign reserves that have to be used up for something, it is no wonder that the Chinese government is buying anything and everything it can stockpile, and that can't be devalued by Tim Geithner, hand over fist. As for exports: courtesy of the dollar peg, which makes China's exports as cheap as the US' (assuming the latter had much of anything to export besides financial innovation), China had no shortage of counterparties to purchase its $1.2 trillion in 2009 exports. Yet despite all this, China's trade surplus plunged a record $100 billion, or 34%, to $196 billion from 2008's $296 billion.

While the domestic money printing syndicate refuses to accept the glaring reality that endless money printing causes unavoidable hyperinflation (the only question being when), China has decided it is time to start closing the spigot. Bloomberg reports that, "China’s central bank began to roll back its monetary stimulus for an economy poised to become the world’s second-biggest this year, seeking to reduce the danger of asset-price inflation after a record surge in credit. The People’s Bank of China yesterday sold three-month bills at a higher interest rate for the first time in 19 weeks." Ah the benefits of a planned economy: controlling the supply and the demand at the same time. And further, being pegged to the dollar, China receives all the secondary benefits of the Chairman's endless dollar printing. Ain't life grand in Beijing...

Even as China proves to the world it has perfected Greenspan's repertoire for blowing asset bubbles in any and every asset class, the fact that China is still a communist country and thus has to carefully respond to public pressure (ironically, more carefully than "capitalist" America) could put a damper in its plans to overtake the US in flooding the market with masses of excess liquidity. The reason: increasing social anger at the affordability of houses. Because unlike the US, where Mozillo's hellspawn and other subprime henchmen were all too willing to subsidize every deadbeat with a 150% LTV on a FICO of 101, China's credit mechanism is not that "advanced" meaning billions of people have become cut off from the home market for the simple reason of lack of affordability (yes, the concepts of equity and savings are still appreciated in certain non-US dominated parts of the world).

2010 will be a year of major transformations, punctuated by the following key escalating divergence: i) on one hand, the ongoing contraction of the US consumer will accelerate, because even as the stock market ramps ever higher (and on ever decreasing trade volume a 2,000 level on the S&P while completely incredulous, is attainable, but will benefit only a select few insiders who continue selling their stock at ridiculous valuations), household wealth will at best stagnate (as a reminder, an increase in interest rates "withdraws" much more household net worth, due to implied house price reduction, than any comparable boost to the S&P can offset), ii) on the other hand, China, which is faced with the ticking timebomb of continuing the status quo and hoping that US consumers can keep growing the global economy, or alternatively, looking inward at its own consumer class, and shifting away from its historical export-led model. The one unavoidable side effect of this prominent departure would be a renminbi appreciation, and a logical drop in the US currency, once the US-China peg if lifted (a theme opposed recently by SocGen analysts, who see the inverse as likely occurring). The main question for 2010 and beyond is whether this will be a gradual decline or a disorderly drop. And behind the scenes of all the bickering, jawboning and posturing, this is precisely what high level officials from both the US and China are currently negotiating. This will be one of the major themes that defines the next decade. Another phrase to describe this process is the gradual drift of US into a nation that is aware it is no longer the primary economic dynamo of global growth as China eagerly steps in to fill that spot.