"The world has fundamentally shifted over the last decade, especially since we’ve emerged from the Great Recession... But the professional class has been very slow to understand what is going on, not just quantitatively but qualitatively in a new generational configuration that I call the Fourth Turning. They don’t accept the new normal. They keep insisting, just two or three years out there on the horizon, that the old normal will return – in GDP growth, in housing starts, in global trade. But it doesn’t return."
According to Citi's Matt King, here is the biggest surprise about the recent global market crash: that on one hand it has been very orderly in some products, and yet very volatile, chaotic, and acute in others...
As the following chart from Reuters shows, the year-to-date stock price performance for most European banks is on pace to far surpass - to the downside - the dreadful for the global financial system 2008.
Central Banks Are the PROBLEM, Not the Solution ... the DISEASE, Not the Cure
"Worse than Lehman" is how one European bond market trader described the carnage this week as the brief respite that ECB monetization and debt-buyback rumors provided yesterday have morphed into utter destruction this morning. European (and US) banks are a sea of contagious red with Deutsche Bank the tip of the collapse spear. Credit risk on Deutsche has exploded this morning with Sub CDS trading up 85bps to a record high 540bps... eerily reminiscent of the pre-Lehman bankruptcy week in 2008.
Time to panic now?
Rumors of ECB monetization (which would be highly problematic in the new "bail-in" world) and old news of the emergency debt-buyback plan have sparked an epic ramp in Deutsche Bank's stock this morning (+11% - the most since Oct 2011). This extreme volatility is, however, eerily reminiscent of 2007/8 when headline hockey sparked pumps and dumps on a daily basis in Lehman stock... until it was all over.
Broad equity indexes have declined significantly since July 2015, and forward price-to-earnings ratios have fallen to a level closer to their averages of the past three decades.
Leverage [among speculative-grade and unrated firms] firms has risen to historical highs, especially among those in the oil industry, a development that points to somewhat elevated risks of distress for some business borrowers.
While algos patiently await the only thing that matters for US stocks today which is Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress. expected to be released at 8:30 am (and previewed here), the rest of the world this morning is a hot mess of schizophrenic highs and lows.
All signs are that things are in fact in danger of getting out of hand...
Moments ago, in response to DB's open querry on Twitter whether the Dax is "overreacting", we highlighted DB's soaring CDS and asked if perhaps the market was not underreacting. Minutes later the market opined, by sending DB stock to new all time lows.
With China offline for the rest of the week, global markets have found a new Asian bogeyman in the face of Japan which as reported last night saw its markets crash, and the Yen soar, showing that less than 2 weeks after the BOJ unveiled NIRP, yet another central bank has lost control.
"Today Deutsche Bank published updated information related to its 2016 and 2017 payment capacity for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) coupons based on preliminary and unaudited figures. The 2016 payment capacity is estimated to be approximately EUR 1 billion, sufficient to pay AT1 coupons of approximately EUR 0.35 billion on 30 April 2016."