News That Matters
"Gold and silver will be your only lifeboats as they are no one’s liability in a world where everything including the money in your pocket is someone else’s liability.”
When it comes to the complete economic and social devastation of Venezuela, lately the only thing readers seem attuned to is when will the social implosion lead to renewed political tensions which will likely result in another violent political overthrow, one which may or may not involve the local military. Today Venezuela took a step in that direction when its president Maduro declared a state of emergency in a border region near Colombia following an attack by smugglers in which three soldiers and a civilian were injured, resulting in 60 days of martial law in five municipalities of the state of Tachira. He also said the closure of the border, announced on Thursday, will be extended until further notice.
Turkey Enters Bear Market As Erdogan Calls New Elections, Consumer Confidence Crashes To Six Year LowSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/21/2015 09:00 -0400
What began in early June with a surprisingly strong showing at the ballot box for the pro-Kurdish HDP has now ended precisely where many knew it would: with new elections.
"Short-term, markets seem intent on forcing either the Fed to pass in September, or the Chinese to launch a more comprehensive and credible policy package to boost growth expectations. Alternatively, a credit event in commodities (note CDS is widening sharply for resources companies – front page chart) may be necessary to cause policy-makers to panic. Markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking."
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan aren't satisfied with disparate, disorganized "reference data" which is why they're teaming up on an initiative called "SPReD". As WSJ reports, "using consistent data allows the banks to form accurate pricing for trades," and we all know what can happen when Wall Street gets together to "standardize" a reference point on which trades are based.
"Arguably the only reason to be bullish risk assets right now is there are no reasons to be bullish."
If it were not for Social Security, half of retirees would be out in the street bringing back another Great Depression like atmosphere. This is in stark contrast to that 401(k) dreams pushed by Wall Street investment banks of endless Margaritas and walks on nameless sunny beaches. The sad reality is that retirement is no longer what people think.
Turkey is rapidly descending into chaos on all fronts. With the lira in free fall and the politically-motivated violence escalating, one prominent lawmaker is calling for martial law ahead of new elections which could plunge the country further into civil war.
The Next Leg Of The Commodity Carnage: Attention Shifts To Traders - Glencore Crashes, Noble Default Risk SoarsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/19/2015 17:54 -0400
One month ago we asked: "Which will be first: Trafigura, Mercuria or Glencore." Today we got our answer.
After trading at what we postulated was the rough floor for the CDS at 150 bps for over a year, in the past month Glencore CDS have exploded higher, and at last check was trading 315 bps wide, about 150 wider from the March 2014 levels with the likelihood of a major gap wider when the rating agencies downgrade the company from investment grade to junk, which in turn would trigger an unknown amount of cascading collateral calls and an accelerated liquidity depletion, which would then further hammer Glencore's bonds, and as a result, send its default risk, and CDS, surging.
Noble Group is Asia’s largest commodities trader. According to GMT research, Noble Group took what they have estimated as between $4 to $6 billions worth of fair value gains on asset valuation over the last 5 years. Since we are exactly one week after their Q2 results, in theory Standard and Poor’s had time to do their homework. We expect a big announcement of S&P on Noble Group later this week. UK insurers (who have also a foot in the cargo insurance market) have dumped Noble Group bonds overnight.
How did Tepper do in Q2? In a word: lousy. In another word: the man who recently was on CNBC pitching a 20x P/E multiple as the new normal, may have just called the market top.
"It’s not how I want my epitaph to read, but it’s not a shameful thing helping people finance themselves. It’s not a bad thing."