CDS

On the heels of what appeared to be an ultimatum from EU creditors, Greece remains defiant on pension cuts and a VAT hike, testing the troika's resolve as the countdown to the next maybe-deadline continues. Meanwhile, Germany warns that Grexit could embolden EU "separatist" movements and Dijsselbloem reminds Tsipras that noncompliance isn't an option.

Corporate executives offer three main reasons for share repurchases: 1. Buybacks are investments in our undervalued shares signaling our confidence in the company’s future; 2. Buybacks allow the company to offset the dilution of EPS when employee stock options are exercised or stock is granted to employees; or 3. The company is mature and has limited investment opportunities, therefore we are obligated to return unneeded cash to shareholders. The logic behind each of these explanations is in the vast majority of cases is flawed, to be kind, and deceptive to be blunt.

The Fed sees no risks of bubble trouble because they are looking at it all from the 2008 perspective. That is completely wrong-headed; if there is a “next one” it will have nothing to do with subprime mortgages, or even mortgages and real estate. Everyone seems to simply assume that the subprime problem ended in 2008, if only by crash. That is true but only of mortgages. Deleveraging is myth as debt has still expanded, and greatly, just not in the same exact places. There are certainly auto and student loans that have exploded exponentially, especially in subprime categories, but if there is another credit bubble now, the third, it is undoubtedly corporate debt.

"Central bank distortions have forced investors into positions they would not have held otherwise, and forced them to be the ‘same way round’ to a much greater extent than previously... unless fundamentals move so as to justify current valuations, when central banks move towards the exit, investors will too.... The way out may not prove so easy; indeed, we are not sure there is any way out at all."

The scandal-surrounded, junk-rated, state-managed Brazilian oil producer Petrobras managed to successfully issue a $2.5 billion notional 100-year bond yesterday. Mainstream media is cock-a-hoop over the fact that the 'market' seemed to soak this bond up so easily and at a yield of 8.45% (which was 20-30bps below guidance) amid an order book apparently up to asround $10 billion. However, for those with some math skills, the truth is that it cost Petrobras around $380 million more than market-implied levels to successfully launch the bond (and so it should).

As Greek empty their bank accounts at a record pace, waiting for the capital-controlling, bank-holiday-based 'other shoe' to drop on Grexit, devaluation, and drachmatization; they are not stashing their cash in the proverbial mattress. Instead, as The Telegraph reports, there is a slightly surprising sign that Greece is in the classic throes of a bank run (as we saw in Russia last year): car sales jumped by 47% in April.

Put another way, the amount of high quality collateral backstopping this mess has shrunken dramatically. On top of this, traders have been piling into sovereign bonds in anticipation of various QE programs, forcing yields to multi-decade if not multi-century lows.

With the big macro data out of the way, attention today and for the rest of the week will focus on the aftermath of the latest Chinese rate cut - its third in the past 6 months - which managed to boost the Shanghai Composite up by 3% overnight but not nearly enough to make up for losses in the past week; any resumption of the 6+ sigma volatility in the German Bund, which already has been jittery with the yield sliding to 0.52% only to spike to 0.62% shortly thereafter before retracing some of the losses; and finally Greece, which in a normal world would have concluded its negotiations during today's Eurogroup meeting and unlocked up to €7 billion in funds for the coming months. Instead, Greece may not only not make its €770 million IMF payment tomorrow but according to ever louder rumors, is contemplating a parallel currency on its way out of the Eurozone.

Morgan Stanley breaks down the buyback-equity rally relationship while WSJ flags "big borrowing" by both corporations and investors. In short: corporate debt issuance is at record levels and so are buybacks, stock prices, and margin accounts. When the cycle finally turns, look out below. 

When student debt and subprime car loans aren't enough, you have to get creative. It now appears Wall Street is set to feed its securitization machine with a new kind of debt: peer-to-peer loans. You read that correctly. Soon enough, the pool of micro loans that are facilitated by sites like LendingClub will be used to create CDOs.

Just three questions here about Sarah Dahlgren's "resignation":

1. Why is she resigning now: is there a crackdown on just how corrupt the Goldman Sachs branch office at Liberty 33 truly is?
2. What will her salary at Goldman Sachs be once she joins the 200 West firm?
3. Which Goldman partner will replace her.

What was once anathema has become conventional wisdom, and lately the only question when discussing the fate of Greece is not if but when it will default. Actually, there is another question: how? Because as the following UBS flow chart shows, when it comes to the matter of picking an obligation on which to not make a payment, Greece has a truly 5 star menu selection....

This may take you the entire weekend to digest, but if you are an unsecured creditor/lender (have a checking, savings or demand deposit account) to a euro zone bank, I would consider it your fiduciary responsibility to yourself to sit down and parse this piece with care and aplomb!

Without the support of the ECB, the country’s banking system would be shut off from international markets and likely collapse.

“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” ? George Orwell

“You shall know the truth and the truth shall make you mad.” ? Aldous Huxley