CDS

Now that every trigger happy, red-bull OD'ing HiFTer is keenly following every lockbox in possession of Greek bureaucrats to see how many billions more in debt will "suddenly" appear out of thin air, many have forgotten about that "other" sovereign bailout - Dubai. The reason: Dubai World, which was supposed to present a restructuring offer for $22 billion in debt in a meeting with lenders in December, never did. January wasn't any different. February, by the early looks of it, will also be a dud. So as the world grinds along and creditors have no clue what the hell is going on in Dubai, and increasingly so in Greece, everyone has their fingers crossed that not only will there be no default anywhere, but that anyone who dares to mention just what a great big castle in the air the entire sovereign debt arena has become, funded by overt and covert cash transfers by the Federal Reserve, will be (in)voluntarily swept under the rug.

It appears not even one day can pass without some new and improved indication of Greece's economic collapse. The latest comes from website Kathimerini.gr which discloses that the recently appointed "Committee on the Reliability Of Statistics" has uncovered $40 billion of previously hidden debt (one wonders when America will get a comparable commission: no question we are in dire need of one).

Remember how that "massively" oversubscribed Greek bond deal (at HY spreads) was supposed to bring peace and prosperity to the gyro makers? Well, oops... Today, the spread between Greek 10 Years and Bunds just hit a record wide of 406 bps, as CDS also hit another all time wide at 370 bps. The chart below shows how Bund spread has moved over time: basically the funding problem in Greece just got worse despite of the bond sale, and now the Greek finance ministry has entered desperation mode. Just how desperate? The latest development which is precipitating this move (which of course involved Goldman Sachs), is the rumor that Greece has hired GS to sell €25 billion of Greek bonds to... Beijing. Welcome to the new lender of last resort: China has just become the world's Federal Reserve.

Yesterday we speculated Goldman CDS should hit 140. It is there now, as the stock is plunging by nearly 5%. At this point the Stock-CDS arbitrage is negligible, and declined from 16% yesterday to just 4% today. Currently CDS is fairly valued on a relative basis, assuming the stock price is fairly valued, which it isn't if prop trading is killed. LBO prospects are still not considered.

Goldman Credit Default Swaps have surged by over 20% on the day the firm may have finally lost its trading "edge." With a 5% decline in the stock, the company default risk has jumped to a 5 month high at 121 bps. The last time its was here was on September 14th, when the stock was $177/share. Yet a relative value comparison since September 2, 2009 (if one belives in such things) indicates that the Company CDS is rich by about 16%. If traders believe today's stock price as indicative of the true value of GS, we anticipate a widening in Goldman CDS to a level in the upper 130s/low 140s.

The economic situation in Greece is getting worse by the day. Despite PM Papandreou's promises to the contrary, it is probably safe to say that the country is now in a full blown funding crisis; this is reflected in the country's fresh new record in its default risk as seen by credit traders. At 346 bps, it is just a matter of time before all hedges cover positions and this number explodes. Now it is the Eurozone's turn to promise it will not expel Greece from the monetary union: we think the likelihood of this action is increasing proportional to the number of times this possibility is refuted.

• JP Morgan Chase & Co: 51.50, last 46.3 +5.25
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc: 104.50, last 100.5 +4.00
• Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc: 114.50, last 105.5 +9.00
• Morgan Stanley: 119.50, last 113.5 +6.00

Greek CDS hits another all time record at 342.50 bps. Greece is now trading nearly 5 times as risky as the entire universe of investment grade US corporates. In other news, Greek Prime Minister Papanderou repeats for the third time (and fourth, and fifth) that the country will not, repeat not, repeat not, repeat not, repeat not, need a bail out from the EU, and will not (etc) drop the euro or leave the eurozone. If only anyone believed the man. Anyway, where is that damn ESH0 ramp job when you need one? The best way to send a signal that all is good in the world is for Liberty 33 to trade a quadrillion e-mini's with itself.

With all the recent outrage over the AIG fiasco focusing on Tim Geithner, is the anger misplaced? Is the real culprit in this situation Goldman Sachs, which allegedly sold its $2.5 billion in extremely profitable AIG CDS prior to March 15, when the full disclosure of the government's measure to preserve AIG became first known; a time in which Goldman, by implication, may well have been in possession of material, non-public information?

Earlier, Goldman Sachs, which has a propensity for pissing pretty much everyone off these days, got in some hot water with the Teamsters, for allegedly "actively soliciting bond trades for clients and
underwriting credit-default swaps to benefit from a failed
exchange and resulting bankruptcy." We won't comment on this as we have repeatedly said it is quite farfetched to say that CDS in itself can create the kind of death spirals that those unfamiliar with the product tend to believe occur courtesy of CDS traders. However what did catch our attention was the following claim made by Goldman spokesman Michael DuVally: “Goldman does not have a position in [YRC], nor are
we making markets in the company’s bonds or credit-default
swaps.” That we will comment on, because it appears to be an outright lie.

There has been much conjecture on whether using CDS is an effective way to hedge against US default risk. Many theoreticians, especially those of the post-March lows variety, have sprung up and are speculating that buying Credit Default Swaps on the US is ultimately a futile and pointless endeavor. The main argument: a US default would likely mean that interconnected dealers won't recognize contracts on a US default event, as they themselves will be out of business. Even if they continued to exist, like cockroaches in a postapocalyptic world, the collateral which backs derivatives is mostly US Treasurys: the same obligations that would end up being massively impaired. Furthermore, even though US CDS try to isolate currency risk by being euro denominated, a somewhat gradual collapse into default would make the dollar lose its value, which would make premium payments in euros untenable for the protection buyer. Then again, regardless of theoretical considerations, in a world fleeing from any risk, it is precisely US CDS where everyone would be rushing to: just recall the 100bps US CDS wides reached in March.

Gold mania has now moved to sovereign CDS, where the top 5 names are flying again. Biggest movers are the usual suspects: Dubai, Greece and Latvia. As Zero Hedge has been saying since it hit about 22 bps, CDS on the United States will soon likely see a replay of 2008 action. As of today it traded at 36, 2.5 bps wider. And when this starts really moving, watch out.

Yesterday was a quiet day in CDS with broad tightening despite a weak equity market. Some of the only names wider were former CNBC owner GE, REIT BXP, XL Financial and COF. Today's data should provide for much more reddy goodness.

Contagion effect is spreading as the weakest link in the Eurozone catches fire.

Panic settles in as the update call for Nakheel bondholders crashes and has to be postponed due to unprecedented and unexpected surge of participants.