Market Talk Deutsche Post Bank Has Failed The Stress Test

Just a rumor for now. On the other hand, it conforms precisely to Credit Suisse's earlier announcement that Post Bank, in addition to Greek ATE, Piraeus, Helenic Postbank NBG would fail the Stress tests. (more to come).

Confirmed - Eurozone "Stress Tests" Will Not Include Any Default Scenario

And now the latest joke - the increasingly more incorrectly named "stress" tests being conducted in Europe are now officially confirmed to be anything but. As Market News reports: "Planned stress tests for European banks will cover their resistance to a crisis in the market for European sovereign debt, but not the scenario of a default of a Eurozone state since the EU would not allow such an occurrence, a German newspaper reported Wednesday." Now that is some serious downside stress testing. Of course, by the time the stress tests are found to have been a joke, and the country hosting the bank blows up just becase the bank's assets are 3x the host nation's GDP, and the country is forced to bankrupt, it will be far too late. So let's get this straight - the very issue that is at the heart of the liquidity crisis in Europe, namely the fact that a bankrupt Greece has managed to destroy the interbank funding market in Portugal and Spain, and the other PIIGS, and has pushed EURIBOR and other money market metrics to one year stress highs, and forced the ECB to lend over $1 trillion to various central and commercial banks, will not be tested for? Fair enough - if the ECB wants to treat the CDS vigilantes as a bunch of idiots, only to be hounded in the press with derogatory words as "Wolfpack" and much worse, so be it. But it certainly should not be surprised if this is latest show of idiocy by Trichet's henchmen serves as the springboard for the latest round of spreads blowing up across Europe.

CDS Traders Attempting Another European Ambush

Another week, another major derisking of European names. While the drop of China out of the Top 10 can only be attributed to the summer doldrums, the top countries are mimicking the World Cup Final, and are all European, amounting to over $1 billion in net notional derisked in the past week. These are Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria and the Netherlands, with Greece and Poland at 6 and 7, and Brazil, South Africa and Colombia rounding out the top 10. On the other end, by a smaller margin, the rerisking of France and Portugal amounted to just over $500 million in the past week. The most active name was Brazil with 1,109 contracts unwound or almost $10 billion in notional, even as the net change was one of derisking. It appears Europe will have no peace from CDS "speculators" testing out the ground in each and every country, until it the rolling wave of defaults finally sets in as Niall Ferguson stated earlier.

The Ticking Time Bomb That Are The Spanish Cajas

Even with Spain's Cajas, or savings banks, completing the country's most aggressive sector restructuring in history, after nearly 90%, or 39 out of 45 merged or participated in some form of "cold fusion" and benefiting from the financial assistance of the Spanish central bank, there has been precious little written about the actual holdings of this most aggressive lender of mortgage to Spain's 20% unemployed population. Until today: a new report by CreditSights' David Watts indicates that investor worries about the Spanish banking system are very well founded and likely underestimate just how bad the true situation actually is. In "Spanish RMBS: Insider Caja Loan Books", Watts concludes that the Cajas are likely hiding losses on home loans by taking
non-performing mortgages out of securitized pools. Absent this unsymmetrical onboarding of risk, the overall deterioration of the broader pool would have become ineligible as collateral in ECB refi operations. In essence, Watts says, "by buying the loans out of the mortgage pool, the cajas would be taking those weaker loans onto their own books." This implies that the 3.7% serious delinquency rate reported by the cajas is in reality far higher, and likely "underestimates their potential losses." And what's worst: as ever more delinquencies mount courtesy of austerity, and the Cajas run out of cash to constantly buy up the weakest performing loans, all of Spain is about to lose ECB collateral access to its hundreds of billions in securitized RMBS, completely locking the country out of any access to liquidity, even that of the ultimate backstop, the European Central Bank.

Weekly Credit Summary: July 2 - Something For The Weekend

Stocks were the worst performers on a beta-adjusted basis relative to IG and HY in the US as EUR seemed to lose it status as worst of a bad bunch for a week as SovX and FINLs managed decent gains on the week. It seems our view of the credit market anticipating a turn in the cycle was correct and the consumer-sensitive sectors have seen equity play catch up to credit's warning signs from MAY. Many sectors are getting closer to fair across the capital structure but Leisure, Energy, Telecoms, and Consumer NonCyclicals still have room to drop in equities relative to credit's perception of risk. Tech, if anything, looks a little overdone in its sell-off in equities but this is perhaps due to less liquid credit and more highly levered Tech plays in stocks.

Goldman Responds To Zero Hedge Musings On The Segregation Of Cash And Derivative P&L

Yesterday, Zero Hedge summarized our thoughts on David Viniar's claim that it is impossible for Goldman to present derivative revenues on a standalone basis. Today, we provide Goldman the chance to "set the record straight" on the issue. Here is Goldman's side, courtesy of Lucas van Praag. We are surprised that Mr. van Praag focused on the more shallow issue of the daily P&L production which the firm provides for broad firm consumption: various Goldman groups under the FICC umbrella (and under the narrower "prop-trading" definition) have their own formats, and we are happy to present to our readers the non-mortgage daily P&Ls, if Goldman would be so kind as to provide it to us. Perhaps the delineation of derivative P&L is far more specific the CDS trading group (alas, we currently do not have access to that specific form P&L). Mr. van Praag, however, did not answer our inquiry as to whether the firm keeps track of cash and derivative P&Ls by strategy, which is a far more relevant issue. For the record, we are still 100% confident that a P&L track by strategy, and subsequent stripping of cash legs is a simple enough exercise, and one firm's self-respecting back office can complete such a task in minutes.

Bank Of China Shares Halted On $9Bn Rights Offering Announcement, As Bank Urgently Needs To Replenish Capital

Those China CDS are looking ever more attractive. Earlier today, Bank of China, Asia’s third-
largest lender by market value, announced it plans to raise as much as 60
billion yuan ($8.9 billion) in a rights offer to replenish
capital. Bloomberg reports: "The lender will sell 1.1 shares for every 10 held, or as
many as 19.56 billion shares in Shanghai and 8.36 billion in
Hong Kong, a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange showed
today." This latest equity offering in a region already drowning in capital raises was enough to halt trading in BOC shares until July 5 as the response to it would hardly be considered favorable. A sale by Bank of China would “damage market sentiment and banking shares further because we’ve already been flooded by share offerings,” Tang Yayun, a Shanghai-based analyst at Northeast Securities Co., said before the announcement. “This is a surprise given that they just completed a bond sale.” The bolded sentence is critical as it merely implies that the rot from the trillions in bad loans made to assorted house flippers, tulip sniffers, and opium den casino dwellers are finally coming home to roost. Indeed, Bank of China's capital adequacy ratio fell to 11.09 percent
as of March 31, below the minimum 11.5 percent required according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission. The next wave of the solvency crisis tsunami has now officially made landfall in China.

David Viniar Walks A Thin Line Between Truth And Perjury At Today's FCIC Hearing

Today, during the FCIC's second day of hearings, Goldman CFO David Viniar was forced to provide additional data about the firm's AIG CDS trades. Luckily the firm kept a record of all entry and exit points, and thus will be able to confirm just what the P&L of the associated trades is (and if not, we are happy to teach Goldman's risk department how to use the Bloomberg CDSD function in conjunction with RMGR run scraping to build a real time CDS portfolio tracker)... Which is ironic, because when asked by Brooksley Born why the firm has not yet provided a break down of its derivative revenue Mr. Viniar by all accounts perjured himself. As Bloomberg reported: “We don’t have a separate derivatives business,” Viniar
told the panel. “It’s integrated into the rest of our

Uh... what?

Some Insights On David Viniar's Grilling By Brooksley Born On The Firm's Double Profit From AIG

Goldman's David Viniar is currently being grilled in the second day of the FCIC's hearings by Brooksley Born, who is asking the smartest questions of the CFO we have ever heard on TV. The webcast can be seen here. The main question being hammered again and again is why and how did Goldman profit twice on AIG, first by being bailed out by taxpayers, when the firm received a par payout on its collateral exposure with the insurer, and secondly, and much more importantly, how and why the firm made a profit of $1.2 billion by buying and selling CDS on the insurer, which comports with Lloyd Blankfein's previous statement that the firm was fully insured against an AIG collapse. This is a topic Zero Hedge has covered since March of 2009. Much more important at this point is the tangent of the circumstances surrounding the AIG CDS sale: we harken back to our post from January 2010, titled "Did Goldman Sell Its $2.5 Billion AIG CDS While In Possession Of Material, Non-Public Information?" in which we speculated that not only did Goldman receive an unfair second profit via the CDS, but that in fact it sold this insurance while potentially in possession of material non-public information. Now that this topic has finally surfaced to the broader population, we would like to once again bring attention to it, and we hope Brooksley Born has a chance to follow up on it.

The CDS Wolfpack Is Now Coming After France... China

A month ago, Sarkozy was pissed that Merkel had dared to take the initiative over him and to ban naked CDS trading. Being a stubborn reactionary, this action only prolonged his inevitable decision to do the same (because politicians, being the wise Ph.D's they are, realize fully all the nuances of screwing around with the financial ecosystem). However, looking at this week's DTCC data, we have a feeling he may accelerate his decision to join the CDS-ban team. With a total of 456 million in net notional derisking, France was the top entity in which protection was sought in the past week. In a very quiet week, where the 5th most active name did not even make it past the $100 mm threshold, France was more than double the number two sovereign - Mexico (we are unclear if this is some sort of contrarian move to the Yuan reval, which Goldman was pitching as MXN positive, which means traders likely hedged by loading up on Mexican CDS). But what is probably most notable, is the sudden and dramatic appearance of China in the top 3rd position. Welcome China! And after tonight's surprise PMI miss and the resulting market drubbing, we are confident within a week or two, China will promptly become a mainstay of the top 3, and will quickly rise to the top position, where it rightfully belongs. We are also confident those perennial Eastern European underdogs, Romania and Bulgaria will shyly make an entrance in the top 10 next week.

Explaining Derivatives, And Goldman's Dominance Thereof, In Four Simple Charts

Attached are several charts used to explain to confused politicians all they need to know about the biggest ponzi scheme market ever created (synthetic derivatives), how these derivatives are created, how the leverage attributed to just one asset can result in infinite amplification of risk, and how Goldman is in the very middle of a web which encompasses tens if not hundreds of trillions in derivative counterparty exposure with virtually every single other financial company in the world.

Daily Credit Summary: June 29 - Equity Catch-up

Today's action in CDS land was negative pretty much across the board with breadth extremely negative as only a handful of single-names managed to eke out gains as there was a quite evident up-in-quality shift. HY names handily underperformed IG names on the day. High beta IG names also underperformed significantly as off-the-run indices underperformed on-the-run once again and the Top 100 CDO referenced names significantly underperformed the broad market.

FCIC To Examine Goldman AIG Derivative Activity, Says Has Not Received Some Requested Information From GS

Better late than never. FCIC also adds it has not received some information requested from Goldman.

Although what are the going to find - that Hank Paulson used taxpayer money to bail out the firm, even as Goldman was betting against AIG and made billions, was made whole on all its impaired AIG collateral, had insider information on the firm's holdings courtesy of its own CDO efforts, covered its AIG CDS while allegedly in possession of material nonpublic information, and made billions in 2007 by shorting housing? Yeah, we know all that. And the best line of the year - Did Goldman make markets or make "Pyramids" FCIC's Thomas says.

European Bank Run Accelerates: EURCHF At Fresh All Time Lows

Impotence defined - 1.3240 is the new EURCHF level at which the Swiss National Bank can only stare, dread and do nothing about. At least the USDCHF has slowed it descent to parity as all of Europe is scrambling to shift its deposits out of local banks and into those of Switzerland. Patience - there are two more days before the LTRO termination, and we may see some real fireworks in the next couple of days as we may witness an unprecedented rush to relocate bank assets. We would not be surprised to see a 1.2x handle in the pair. Elsewhere, there is a true bloodbath in European CDS again, not so much in the usual whipping boy Greece, but Spain, Hungary, and Italy. The shotgunning of risky credits, er, sovereigns has begun. Oh. and remember that "stress test" that was supposed to restore credibility? According to reports Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, and BayernLB, whose combined assets are likely multiples of Germany's GDP, have passed the stress tests. And nobody gives a rat's ass. Geithner's credibility restoring propaganda plan has now suffered massive failure.

NY Fed Finds No Wide-Ranging Risk To Financial System From BP Exposure, Which Likely Means It Is Panic Time

A Reuters source has reported that the New York Fed has looked into BP counterparty exposure and "gave banks' exposure to BP a passing grade," Of course, since this is coming from the Fed, whose tremendous track-record of predicting catastrophes of all shapes and sizes, such as subprime, the credit bubble, the dot com bubble, the August 2007 quant crash, and the 5/6 flash crash, and many others, is immaculate, this almost certainly means it is now time to panic. We are confident that the FRBNY in fact has discovered just the opposite. Why else would they be looking at this issue if they did not have credible concerns of a domino effect on a possible BP bankruptcy.