CDS

CDS

Bank Of China Shares Halted On $9Bn Rights Offering Announcement, As Bank Urgently Needs To Replenish Capital

Those China CDS are looking ever more attractive. Earlier today, Bank of China, Asia’s third-
largest lender by market value, announced it plans to raise as much as 60
billion yuan ($8.9 billion) in a rights offer to replenish
capital. Bloomberg reports: "The lender will sell 1.1 shares for every 10 held, or as
many as 19.56 billion shares in Shanghai and 8.36 billion in
Hong Kong, a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange showed
today." This latest equity offering in a region already drowning in capital raises was enough to halt trading in BOC shares until July 5 as the response to it would hardly be considered favorable. A sale by Bank of China would “damage market sentiment and banking shares further because we’ve already been flooded by share offerings,” Tang Yayun, a Shanghai-based analyst at Northeast Securities Co., said before the announcement. “This is a surprise given that they just completed a bond sale.” The bolded sentence is critical as it merely implies that the rot from the trillions in bad loans made to assorted house flippers, tulip sniffers, and opium den casino dwellers are finally coming home to roost. Indeed, Bank of China's capital adequacy ratio fell to 11.09 percent
as of March 31, below the minimum 11.5 percent required according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission. The next wave of the solvency crisis tsunami has now officially made landfall in China.

David Viniar Walks A Thin Line Between Truth And Perjury At Today's FCIC Hearing

Today, during the FCIC's second day of hearings, Goldman CFO David Viniar was forced to provide additional data about the firm's AIG CDS trades. Luckily the firm kept a record of all entry and exit points, and thus will be able to confirm just what the P&L of the associated trades is (and if not, we are happy to teach Goldman's risk department how to use the Bloomberg CDSD function in conjunction with RMGR run scraping to build a real time CDS portfolio tracker)... Which is ironic, because when asked by Brooksley Born why the firm has not yet provided a break down of its derivative revenue Mr. Viniar by all accounts perjured himself. As Bloomberg reported: “We don’t have a separate derivatives business,” Viniar
told the panel. “It’s integrated into the rest of our
business.

Uh... what?

Some Insights On David Viniar's Grilling By Brooksley Born On The Firm's Double Profit From AIG

Goldman's David Viniar is currently being grilled in the second day of the FCIC's hearings by Brooksley Born, who is asking the smartest questions of the CFO we have ever heard on TV. The webcast can be seen here. The main question being hammered again and again is why and how did Goldman profit twice on AIG, first by being bailed out by taxpayers, when the firm received a par payout on its collateral exposure with the insurer, and secondly, and much more importantly, how and why the firm made a profit of $1.2 billion by buying and selling CDS on the insurer, which comports with Lloyd Blankfein's previous statement that the firm was fully insured against an AIG collapse. This is a topic Zero Hedge has covered since March of 2009. Much more important at this point is the tangent of the circumstances surrounding the AIG CDS sale: we harken back to our post from January 2010, titled "Did Goldman Sell Its $2.5 Billion AIG CDS While In Possession Of Material, Non-Public Information?" in which we speculated that not only did Goldman receive an unfair second profit via the CDS, but that in fact it sold this insurance while potentially in possession of material non-public information. Now that this topic has finally surfaced to the broader population, we would like to once again bring attention to it, and we hope Brooksley Born has a chance to follow up on it.

The CDS Wolfpack Is Now Coming After France... China

A month ago, Sarkozy was pissed that Merkel had dared to take the initiative over him and to ban naked CDS trading. Being a stubborn reactionary, this action only prolonged his inevitable decision to do the same (because politicians, being the wise Ph.D's they are, realize fully all the nuances of screwing around with the financial ecosystem). However, looking at this week's DTCC data, we have a feeling he may accelerate his decision to join the CDS-ban team. With a total of 456 million in net notional derisking, France was the top entity in which protection was sought in the past week. In a very quiet week, where the 5th most active name did not even make it past the $100 mm threshold, France was more than double the number two sovereign - Mexico (we are unclear if this is some sort of contrarian move to the Yuan reval, which Goldman was pitching as MXN positive, which means traders likely hedged by loading up on Mexican CDS). But what is probably most notable, is the sudden and dramatic appearance of China in the top 3rd position. Welcome China! And after tonight's surprise PMI miss and the resulting market drubbing, we are confident within a week or two, China will promptly become a mainstay of the top 3, and will quickly rise to the top position, where it rightfully belongs. We are also confident those perennial Eastern European underdogs, Romania and Bulgaria will shyly make an entrance in the top 10 next week.

Explaining Derivatives, And Goldman's Dominance Thereof, In Four Simple Charts

Attached are several charts used to explain to confused politicians all they need to know about the biggest ponzi scheme market ever created (synthetic derivatives), how these derivatives are created, how the leverage attributed to just one asset can result in infinite amplification of risk, and how Goldman is in the very middle of a web which encompasses tens if not hundreds of trillions in derivative counterparty exposure with virtually every single other financial company in the world.

Daily Credit Summary: June 29 - Equity Catch-up

Today's action in CDS land was negative pretty much across the board with breadth extremely negative as only a handful of single-names managed to eke out gains as there was a quite evident up-in-quality shift. HY names handily underperformed IG names on the day. High beta IG names also underperformed significantly as off-the-run indices underperformed on-the-run once again and the Top 100 CDO referenced names significantly underperformed the broad market.

FCIC To Examine Goldman AIG Derivative Activity, Says Has Not Received Some Requested Information From GS

Better late than never. FCIC also adds it has not received some information requested from Goldman.

Although what are the going to find - that Hank Paulson used taxpayer money to bail out the firm, even as Goldman was betting against AIG and made billions, was made whole on all its impaired AIG collateral, had insider information on the firm's holdings courtesy of its own CDO efforts, covered its AIG CDS while allegedly in possession of material nonpublic information, and made billions in 2007 by shorting housing? Yeah, we know all that. And the best line of the year - Did Goldman make markets or make "Pyramids" FCIC's Thomas says.

European Bank Run Accelerates: EURCHF At Fresh All Time Lows

Impotence defined - 1.3240 is the new EURCHF level at which the Swiss National Bank can only stare, dread and do nothing about. At least the USDCHF has slowed it descent to parity as all of Europe is scrambling to shift its deposits out of local banks and into those of Switzerland. Patience - there are two more days before the LTRO termination, and we may see some real fireworks in the next couple of days as we may witness an unprecedented rush to relocate bank assets. We would not be surprised to see a 1.2x handle in the pair. Elsewhere, there is a true bloodbath in European CDS again, not so much in the usual whipping boy Greece, but Spain, Hungary, and Italy. The shotgunning of risky credits, er, sovereigns has begun. Oh. and remember that "stress test" that was supposed to restore credibility? According to reports Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, and BayernLB, whose combined assets are likely multiples of Germany's GDP, have passed the stress tests. And nobody gives a rat's ass. Geithner's credibility restoring propaganda plan has now suffered massive failure.

NY Fed Finds No Wide-Ranging Risk To Financial System From BP Exposure, Which Likely Means It Is Panic Time

A Reuters source has reported that the New York Fed has looked into BP counterparty exposure and "gave banks' exposure to BP a passing grade," Of course, since this is coming from the Fed, whose tremendous track-record of predicting catastrophes of all shapes and sizes, such as subprime, the credit bubble, the dot com bubble, the August 2007 quant crash, and the 5/6 flash crash, and many others, is immaculate, this almost certainly means it is now time to panic. We are confident that the FRBNY in fact has discovered just the opposite. Why else would they be looking at this issue if they did not have credible concerns of a domino effect on a possible BP bankruptcy.

Bulgaria CDS Cheap As National Bank Reports Tripling In Bad And Restructured Loans

Several weeks ago we urged readers to consider CDS of Greek neighbors Bulgaria and Romania. Even as spreads of the two countries have widened materially over the last 10 days, especially following last week's news in which a Romanian court found pension cuts critical for IMF loan procurement unconstitutional, there appears to be much more pain to come. In a report from Moody's, the rating agency confirms our worries, in a piece titled "Continued deterioration of loan quality pressures Bulgarian banks." In the report, analyst Elena Panayiotou notes: "Last Wednesday, the Bulgarian National Bank released figures for problem loans at Bulgarian banks, showing a tripling in the percentage of bad and restructured loans to 11.4% of total loans at the end of May 2010, compared with 3.66% a year earlier and 10.7% in April. This is credit negative for Bulgarian banks, as the recent increase in problem loans will further impact the banks’ net profitability, given the requirements to set aside higher provisions for such loans." Since the Bulgarian currency is pegged to the Euro courtesy of the IMF's currency board, the country is effectively as powerless to inflate its way out of troubled bank balance sheets as its eurozone members. With Bulgarian CDS at 360, and with the country about to experience the double whammy of the collapsing Greek economy, and deteriorating asset value, we firmly believe a fair target this spread is at least half of where Greek 5 Year protection trades.

Arbing The Decoupling Between CDS And Out-Of-The-Money Equity Puts In Distressed Names

In his latest analysis, Goldman credit strategist Charles Himmelberg resumes the firm's party line of claiming the market is overestimating the risk impact of "fat tail" events, because presumably, as Goldman's Javier Pérez de Azpillaga showed previously, even though Spain is insolvent, is facing a massive budget deficit, has a huge debt-rolling problem, and has a banking system that is locked out of capital markets, all is good (full report here) and all those who are betting on Europe's demise are about to lose money (how this Eurozone optimism jives with Goldman's recent downgrade of the EURUSD to 1.15 is beyond non-lobotomized comprehension, so we'll just leave it be as yet another fully expected Goldman inconsistency). Yet, as ever so often, inbetween the conflicts of interest, Goldman does tend to provide that occasional piece of useful, actionable information. In this case, Himmelberg has done a very relevant analysis comparing Jump to Default costs for CDS and for out-of-the-money equity puts on distressed public names, and concludes that purchasing CDS provides a far better, lower-costing entry point to hedge against default. As he notes: "Our results show that pricing in the two markets follows the same trend, but that credit protection may be cheaper in many cases." Specifically, anyone wishing to arb the mispricing of credit and equity downside protection would be wise to put on a pair trade basket where one buys CDS/sells OTM Puts in SFI, LIZ, BC, MIR, NYT, and DDS and the inverse (sells CDS/buys OTM Puts) in F, AMR, MGM, TSO, SFD and LEN on a DV01 neutral basis, and wait for risk normalization between equity and credit to lead to a recoupling in the spreads.

Barney Frank Brings Additional Unclarity On The FinReg Scam, Punts Again On All Fannie/Freddie Questions

In case you just can't get enough of of Barney Frank simply oozing truth, integrity and unbribable honesty (in other words, everything that defines the American Congressional way) in every interview he does, this Bloomberg TV clip is for you. It is also for everyone else who would rather not read the 2,000 pages of FinReg reform yet wants to get some sense if they will be sued next Monday for lifting a 5MM offer of UK CDS. Overall, Barney mumbles about this and that, discusses whether the bill will make banks less profitable (it won't), clarifies the 3% loophole for JPMorgan's investment in Highbridge,  notes the surprising $19 billion bank levy, yet runs like a scolded schoolgirl the second Fannie and Freddie (also known as the one biggest disaster of his career, and the only thing he will be remembered for) are mentioned. "My Republican colleagues like to forget the fact that during the 12 years they controlled Congress, they did nothing about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. When the Democrats took power in 2007, we passed a bill that gave them the power to put them into conservatorship. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac today are not what they were, thanks to a bill passed by a Democratic congress…They are in conservatorship. The notion that we haven't done anything is a lie, and they know that." The more important thing Barney, is that the American are fully aware that any pretense of reform coming from you is a lie, and they most certainly know that.

Crisis In Romania: Constitutional Court Votes Pension Cuts Unconstitutional, IMF Loan In Jeopardy, Presidential Palace Stormed, CDS Blows Out

Several days after the Romanian parliament passed a law to cut pensions by 15% in order to qualify for a critical $20 billion IMF loan, the Romanian Supreme Court found this law was not only unconstitutional, but unappealable (along the lines of what our own SCOTUS will do once the Fed's transparency appeal gets to the very top, resulting in confirmation once and for all that American laws are only made for the benefit of the Federal Reserve). The decision was reached hours after dozens of Romanian citizens stormed the presidential palace "to get an audience with President Traian Basescu." As a result of the Constitutional Court's decision, the IMF loan "may now be delayed, and this will be a big blow to the government of Prime Minister Emil Boc, the BBC's Nick Thorpe reports." Also as a result, Romanian (and by association, neighboring Bulgaria) CDS blew up today and closed +30 to 410 for Dracula's host country, and +20 to 360 bps for the country that served as the reverse engineering center of the former Communist Bloc.

After Hitting 1,100bps In Spread, Greece Finally Relents And Puts (Parts of) Itself Up For Sale

Today, Greek CDS hit an all time wide in spread. For the first time, this unpleasant phenomenon seems to have registered in the minds of Greek oligarchs, as finally, after months of dithering, the country is taking serious steps to moderate its bankruptcy. The steps in question are asset sales, and the assets in question are islands including portions of Mykonos, and all of Nafsika. So if you work in Goldman and need a nice place (with a non extradition treaty in place very soon) to stash the several hundred gold bar collectionamassed over the past two years of record bonuses, here is your chance for a nice, cheap offshore vault, ironically in the very country whose finances you overrepresetned for years.