CRE

CRE

RBC Explains Today's Rush To BTFD

"the missile strikes change NONE of the calculus for me...Thus, the balance of risk remains in favor of upside for now until this muscle memory above (buy risk dips, sell vol) is changed... The near-to-medium-term ‘risk downside’ story to me remains largely about the rates move as ‘reflation’ has broken trend line..."

Are Markets Overlooking A Clear & Present Danger?

Economic cycles do not last indefinitely. While fiscal and monetary policies can extend cycles by “pulling forward” future consumption, such actions create an eventual “void” that cannot be filled. In fact, there is mounting evidence the “event horizon” may have been reached as seen through the lens of auto sales.

Weekend Reading: Lack Of Perspective

"While it is often said it is only “time IN the market” that matters, investors must remember “time” is the one commodity we can not replace."

Dazed & Confused... Treasury Buying Versus Asset Valuations?

"I'm dazed & confused...economists and the consensus all acknowledge 2001 and 2007 were low interest rate, debt driven financial and economic bubbles.  However, somehow today's even lower interest rate environment resulting in an additional $9.5 trillion in equity valuation from the last bubble peak...this one is legit and isn't a bubble???"

Fed Loan Officers Survey Shows Demand Is Tumbling

If ever there was proof that 'hope' is not a strategy, it is the 2017 Q1 Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey. Despite soaring confidence, spiking optimism, and striking gains in financial assets, demand for loans (from credit cards to autos to residential and commercial) have all plunged in the last 3 months... and lending standards are expected to tighten.

3 Things: Fed Fubar, Feb Flop, & A Fifty-Percent Drop

"The problem our nation faces is a serious one. We have now paired a massive speculative bubble with an errant pin that has every prospect of creating disruption. A steep financial retreat was already baked in the cake prior to the election - there are few policies that have the capacity to make the consequences substantially better, but many that could make the outcomes substantially worse."

Norway's Largest Bank Is Going Long VIX For The First Time: "We See Much More That Can Drag The Market Down"

“We see much more that can drag the market down than we see positive surprises. We can’t see where they could come from. It’s not yet like 1999 as far as valuation goes, but there are indications of a bubble. Now we’ve emptied the six shooter in all areas - the rate is zero, a lot of QE, pricing is up and growth is the same - it’s more challenging now.”

This Is The "Bubbly" Chart That Keeps The Fed's Rosengren Up At Night

 “Should a large negative shock occur, firms and households would be exposed to greater losses through their holdings of riskier assets than they would be if they were not reaching for yield.... should prevailing economic conditions change in response to a large negative economic shock, commercial real estate prices could decline relatively quickly, leading to large losses at leveraged firms.”

The US Real Estate Big Picture... A Thesis In Moral Hazard

Given central banks are all in and have no credible ideas (or credibility period), a NIRP driven speculative new housing bubble (for a population that is barely growing...hello China?) seems most likely.  If you haven't already, get busy front running the next moral hazard moonshot and then stay tuned.  Because as you read this, central bankers are already devising their next (even more destructive) "plan".