Buried under the hysteria of a potential US default is the fact that we are stagnating but no one seems to grasp why that is. One of the reasons, a very important one, is that local and regional banks and their small business borrowers are bogged down with bad commercial real estate. In this article we discuss bank credit, banks and their real estate loans, the so-called "liquidity trap," and why the economy is not growing. It attempts to quantify the problem that local and regional banks have with their commercial real estate loans. We also explain how, why, and when the economy may grow again.
As we get closer to that point where economic reality and financial fact override/overpower politics & concerted central financial planning that attempts to outlaw insitutional failure, we need to employ fact based strategies backed by research based in realism to not only capitalize, but even last through the coming storm.
A European Bank Run: Step-by-Step. I outline the problems of a single bank that, unfortunately, is shared by many. This time next year, never let anybody tell you that this couldn't be seen coming as I illustrate how it will happen, and in detail!
Proof That Europe Is Primed For A Lehman Brothers-Style Bank Bust, But Likely On A Much Larger Scale!!!Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 07/21/2011 13:24 -0400
Recent history shows us what happens when you borrow short and lend long against assets that have been halved in value, hasn't it? Guess who hasn't been to (very recent) history class...
The EU vs US - Who Crashes First? Reserve currency status is a very strong lever, historically. Equally important, the holder of said status has usually held the most powerful military and technology as well. Meanwhile, the EU has the twin problem of CRE debt rolling over on underwater properties and devalued (by up to 50%) sovereign debt held at 30x leverage as risk free assets at par by the banking system. True, the US has similar CRE issues + housing depression... So much to contrast & compare.
Have you ever looked beneath the hood of the big European banks? It's scary for the average layperson & it even scarier if you actually understand what it is you are looking at. What we have hear is EXACTLY what I found in early 2008, INSOLVENCY - laid out plainly for all to see - at least all who ever bothered to take a look! Throw Kilo after Kilo of leveraged fiat currency meat into the insolvent sovereign PIIGS' maw & you won't ever see it again:
The downturn in the economy caught most economists by surprise. They have yet to realize that we are now in a stagflationary economy. All the signs are there, yet they have no explanation for it. QE3 anyone?
Reggie Middleton’s Real Estate Recap: As I Have Clearly Illustrated, It’s a Real Estate Depression!!!Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 05/25/2011 13:14 -0400
I called it the coming RE Depression in 2007! I put MY money where my mouth was and sold off all of my investment real estate. I put YOUR money where my mouth was and shorted all that had to do with real estate (REITs, banks, builders, insurers). I called almost every major bank collapse months in advance. I warned the .gov bubble blowing does not = organic economic recovery. Now I'm saying we need to, and will, continue what's left of the crash of 2009, with ample global company. There will be no RE recovery this year, and there will be a crash. OK, you heard it here!
The “American Realist” Says: Past as Prologue – Re-blown Bubble to Pop Before the Previous Bubble Finishes Popping!!!!Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 05/18/2011 11:39 -0400
Last night, I spent an interesting time with the esteemed and world reknown macro economist, entrepreneur, NYU professor and strategist, Dr. Nouriel Roubini. Nouriel is a very, very bright guy. He has to be, he agrees with many of my viewpoints :-) On a more serious note, this article is the first installment of the valuation of real world, real assets and properties that are actually up for sale. I plan to walk my readers through the potential absurdity that is investing in a bubble that has not finished popping.
Bubble, Bubble, Real Estate Toil and Trouble: Macro Climate for Real Estate Still Sucks, Despite New BubblesSubmitted by Reggie Middleton on 05/03/2011 13:16 -0400
A reader wrote me complaining about the nonsensical bubble blowing in multi-family properties before the last bubble was even finished bursting. I feel his pain. Let’s run through a quick pictorial of how I see the macro climate for real estate as of right now…Everybody is getting squeezed, businesses, consumers, homeowners… Everybody!
Ben lies: we're sheep; No more; and by being sheep we suffer the heart-ache and the thousand pricing shocks unmeasured by the CPI, 'tis a consumer tax, despite what you had wish'd. Ben lies; we're sheep: living a dying dream: Aye, there's the rub; when fleecing sheep what jobs may come when we have scuttled all their buying power?
There are many ways this can end badly and only a few it can end well.
The CMBS market gives us an inside look at the credit quality of many CRE loans which are the key to recovery. This article tells you why it's important.
For Those Who Failed To Heed My Warnings On Portugal, Visualize The Contagion That Causes European Bank Failure!!!Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 04/06/2011 10:56 -0400
If you really don't think a Pan-European bank collapse may be in the cards, you really haven't been paying attention. Things are coming to a had much more quickly than even I anticipated, and you know I'm far from optimistic in this regard.
Inflation Is When The Price of The Most Valuable Things (Such As Your House or Small Business) Drop Precipitously During High Unemployment, Right? Reggie Middleton on Stagflation, Pt 2Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 04/04/2011 10:58 -0400
The continuation of my rant on stagflation, and why it is mistakenly being called inflation in the media and how all of it is being denied by US.gov.