SPY

The US Justice government reminds us that it still does exist. One wonders with the passage of the NDAA just what comparable lawsuits will look like when applied to regular US citizens charged with such crimes as talking to journalists and leaking photos from Guantanamo. Now we can all wait with bated breath as the DOJ i) finds where the MF Global money went, and ii) who is actually accountable. Or maybe not. From the DOJ: " A former CIA officer, John Kiriakou, was charged today with repeatedly disclosing classified information to journalists, including the name of a covert CIA officer and information revealing the role of another CIA employee in classified activities, Justice Department officials announced."

As short-term volatility leaks lower and lower and more and more talking heads use this 'risk-index' as reason to be longer and longer stocks, we thought it might be useful to get some context on recent movements in volatility-related factors. Whether its seasonality, volatility term structure, or the high-yield credit market, VIX looks low (underpricing short-term risk) and set to rise. Perhaps it is a plethora of new-year-new-book covered call euphoria or just belief in the LTRO firewall fixing tail-risk (or US decoupling shifting us to moderation), short-term options are sending some different messages to the risk-is-on-like-donkey-kong 'broadcast' that the contemporaneous (and in no way leading) VIX is being mis-understood as indicating. We present six perspectives that should be considered before more nickels are picked up in front of the micro (earnings) and macro (you name it) steamroller.

Last week, the US government’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), an agency of the US Treasury Department, published its 2011 annual report. There are a few numbers that are pretty startling. We’ve discussed before that FinCEN is the executive agency tasked with ensuring that every US banker is an unpaid government spy through Suspicious Activity Reports. A Suspicious Activity Report, or SAR, includes details of any transaction that may be deemed ‘suspicious’. Naturally, there’s no clear guidance on what is/is not considered suspicious. Banks, brokerages, money service businesses, precious metals dealers… even casinos are required by law to fill them out. If you withdraw an unusual amount of cash from your bank account, that could be deemed suspicious. If you set up a new payee in your billpay service, that could be deemed suspicious. Anything and everything is fair game. Banks and other businesses who do not fill out SARs face hefty penalties, including imprisonment. If they disclose to a customer that s/he is the subject of a SAR, they have hefty penalties, including imprisonment. When push comes to shove and they have to choose between a nasty penalty, or submitting a SAR about your unusual cash withdrawal, which option do you think they’ll pick? Unsurprisingly, nearly 1.5 million ‘suspicious activity reports’ were filed across the US banking system in 2011, well over twice the number reported in 2004. On top of this, there were an additional -14.8 million- ‘currency transaction reports’ filed in 2011, a 6% jump over last year. It’s an unfortunate trend which highlights not only the end of financial privacy, but also the massive amount of data being collected by the government to keep tabs on its citizens.

NYSE total volume was the lowest for the year today. Almost 20% below December's average and down 10% from Friday's already low volumes, US equity markets managed to limp higher post the European close. Notably, volume in ES (the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract) was also the lowest of the year (at around 1.43mm cars vs 2.11mm 50-day average) and what volume there was focused on the European trading session (and right at the close). Today saw the average ES trade-size rise to recent peak levels as we note trade-size picked up into the Europe close (considerably higher average trade size around the European close than normal) and then again at the close. Peaks in average trade-size have often pre-empted turning points in the market and we note that while markets closed quietly unchanged (practically), high yield credit lost ground on the day and broad risk assets (while mostly showing small net changes) did not as a whole rally off the European close lows as enthusiastically as stocks. VIX futures and implied correlation continue to diverge as we note that VIX actually closed higher for the first time in five days.

Just when we thought we may go through one full day without some escalation out of the greater Iran region, here comes the WSJ to inform us that Iran has decided to shove the MAD ball right back into America's court with news that Iran has sentenced alleged CIA spy, 28 year old Amir Hekmati, to death. "Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, born in Arizona to Iranian parents and raised in Michigan, was accused of Moharebe--or being the enemy of God-- the highest crime in Islamic law that carries the death penalty in countries where Sharia law is practiced. The prosecutor's indictment against Hekmati, read in court, said he was guilty of waging a war against God, spying on the Islamic Republic of Iran for the CIA and working for an enemy government, according to Iranian media reports." Needless to say, "the case, the first recent death penalty for an American in Iran, will likely increase tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The State Department has called for Iran to release Hekmati and give the Swiss embassy--the protectorate of U.S. interest in Iran--access to him." It appears Iran has decided not to proceed with those particular instructions.

Equities traded their lowest volume of the week (-19% from yesterday alone). The NFP print this morning provided ammunition for some vol early on but as we drifted into the European close, risk assets in general were pushing lower. Unlike the last few days the circa-Europe-close dip-and-rip only occurred in the equity market today as the USD stayed near its highs and TSYs near their low yields of the day (and high yield credit near its wides of the day) as stocks took off back into the green and meandered either side of VWAP for the afternoon. It seems odd that the afternoon's divergence between TSYs and stocks was not accompanied by Gold or USD weakness (QE hopes) and in fact as we got into the last few minutes, stocks started to push back lower on much larger average trade size but was trapped between VWAP and unchanged on the day. Gold outperformed on the week (+3.4%) just inching out Silver and Oil as they appeared to converge on a 3x beta of the USD 'appreciation' of around 1.2% this week. Treasuries rallied 4-6bps and the curve flattened overall as we saw duration reduction in corporate bonds (with highest quality names (Aaa-Aa3) being net sold). DXY stayed above 81 as the EURUSD scrambled back above 1.27 (down an impressive 1.85% on the week). AUD was the only major to gain relative to the USD on the week (and very marginally). Finally, we saw VIX dropping and stabilize and implied correlation diverged and rose this afternoon which combined with the divergence in risk assets suggests stocks are short-term overdone at best.

Writing as someone who was strongly stock-oriented for most of a long investing career, I can assert that at today's low dividend yields, it is difficult to see stocks as strong trees on which to rely. The Smithers parameters provide cautionary evidence for the bulls who point to current "low" price-earnings ratios and "sunny skies almost forever" views of corporate profits and predict stock market returns well above bond yields for years to come.

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

When sharing our kneejerk reaction to yesterday's latest European resolution, we pointed out the obvious: "Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy will promptly commence sabotaging their economies (just like Greece) simply to get the same debt Blue Light special as Greece." Sure enough, 6 hours later Bloomberg is out with the appropriately titled: "Irish Spy Reward Opportunity in Greece’s Debt Hole." Bloomberg notes that Ireland has not even waited for the ink to be dry before sending out feelers on just what the possible "rewards" may be: "Greece’s failure to cut spending and boost revenue by enough to meet targets set by the European Union and International Monetary Fund prompted bondholders to accept a 50 percent loss on its debt. While Ireland won’t seek debt discounts, the government might pursue other relief given to Greece, including cheaper interest payments on aid and longer to repay it, according to a person familiar with the matter who declined to be identified as no final decision has been taken." There is one very important addition here: "While Ireland won't seek debt discounts" yet. And seek it will: after all, all Ireland needs is for its economy to mysteriously resume its deterioration. Purposefully. Impossible you say? Well, maybe. Or maybe the tricky Irish statistical bureau can just pull a page from their Greek colleagues on just how this is done. And Ireland is just the beginning. Very soon, and by that we mean 24-48 hours, every country in Europe that is undergoing "austerity" (which in Italy's case means increase the retirement age by 2 years over the next 15 years, or 49 days per year), will see its striking (and rioting) fringe elements demand just the same that Greece got, and probably far more. Which then goes right back to the question: yes, French exposure to Greek banks is limited. But what about Irish, Portugues, Spanish and finally Italian exposure? Will that be something to be a little more worried about?

China continues to flex its wings, in this case literally. The FT reports that last month two Chinese Su-27 jets crossed the middle line in the Taiwan Strait to repel a US spy aircraft. "This marks the first known encounter between US and Chinese military aircraft in mid-air since a US reconnaissance aircraft collided with a Chinese fighter jet in 2001 and was forced to land on Hainan island, sparking a crisis that severely damaged bilateral relations." And while this is certainly not the first such incident, it is the first one disclosed publicly, with the sole purpose of humiliating the US. Furthermore, recent tensions in the South China seas (profiled previously here) have become a big sticking point for the US administration so it should not be surprising that China will do everything in its power to embarrass America before the global community, a task in which it has just succeeded.

Is that a tent in the cumulative volume chart of the SPY April 130 Puts or is some investor just happy to see the supposed end of QE2? Either way, no better time to hedge against a market collapse in the next 2 weeks than when the VIX is (as usual) dropping. Someone has purchased 249,420 lots, or a $12 MM bet the SPY will slide notably by the 15th.

Some developing news out of Egypt, where president Mubarak has just appointed Omar Soliman as vice president. This is a notable event as it is the first time since 1981 that Egypt has a Vice President, indicating just how much of a pseudo-dictatorial system the Mubarak regime has been. We are rather confident that the people will not be all that excited about getting the former head of the country's intelligence (read spying) service as the second in command. And just like in Russia during the Yeltsin-Putin succession, we are confident that Mubarak will promptly fade from the scene as soon as Soliman gives him reps and warranties (preferably better than those by Bank of America) that he will not be prosecuted. Incidentally, the last time Egypt had a VP was when Anwar Al Sadat appointed Mubarak as VP. Al Sadat was assassinated shortly thereafter.

Our speculations that the SPY is increasingly used as nothing but a broad market hedge by asset managers, which are terrified to short individual single names in pair trades over concerns of short squeezes and forced buy-ins, has been proven: as of the end of November, the SPY, for the first time dating back to the start of our data, and possibly ever, has become the most shorted security on the NYSE, at 294.1 million shares short. That this has happened just at the time when the market hit a new 2010 high is not surprising: as single names melt up, hedge funds offset long risk by selling SPY in droves. Perhaps just as notably, the short interest in Citi, which had long stayed flat at around 400 million shares, has plunged by almost 30% in the last two weeks of November, and has dropped to 293.6 million shares, behind the SPY in terms of total shorts. Yet what may be the most curious datapoint is that the shorts outstanding as a percentage of float in the KRE ETF (the KBW Regional Banking ETF) have exploded from 13.2x to 24.6x! This means that there are 24.6 more shares short this ETF than there is daily volume. Should there be a forced squeeze in KRE, the intraday stock price will likely make the Volkswagen short squeeze seem pale in comparison.

When we first heard of the latest Wikileaks "cablegate" fiasco, we speculated that Hillary Clinton may be forced to resign for what is rapidly becoming the biggest crisis for US foreign policy since the Bay of Pigs. Today, in an interview with Spanish El Pais, Julian Assange goes one better and says that if it is proven that he approved the spying on UN officials, then Obama should resign. As a reminder as per one of the released cables, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asked for UN personnel's telephones, emails, credit card details and frequent flier numbers. Let's recall that Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment under somewhat comparable circumstances. The only difference is that back then Woodward and Berstein were not on the receiving end of what is becoming an endless barrage of death threats for doing their journalistic duty. This time around, the "deep throat" is the target of an international witch hunt, where however is moot: the early attempt by the like of Joe Lieberman to censor the internet is doomed from the beginning. However, it does show that in the past 40 years little has changed at the top echelons of power when the sordid truth of "Standard Operating Procedures" are revealed. And, unfortunately, things have only gotten worse. Also, keep in mind that Wikileaks has so far released only a small fraction of the 250,000 cables that will ultimately be declassified by Wiki. One wonders just how long the world can maintain the damage control before foreign relations between both friends and enemies are terminally frayed.

As the trading year draws to a close, and as the QE2 driven melt up shows little sign of relenting (or breaching the 1,200 S&P level), the ever popular VIX, or "fear index" continues to plumb new depths. For many this is a superficial sign of complacency and lack of risk of any major moves within stocks. However, as BNY's Nicholas Colas demonstrates, this is far from the truth as to what is happening below the surface. While highlighting the grind lower in the VIX, Colas observes that "the options market has been busy pricing in higher levels of perceived risk across a variety of asset classes, most notably investment grade bonds, silver, and emerging markets. In fact, of the 20 asset classes and industrial sectors for which we track risk pricing in the options market, 15 show heightened levels of investor concern for the upcoming 30 day period." How does Colas explain this remarkable divergence? "I am tempted to say that the sector IVs are actually better representatives of the market’s take on future volatility, and the lower expected volatility of the market as a whole comes from macro investors who think the next month will be smooth sailing. Conversely, those traders who use sector ETFs and their options to hedge specific single stock positions see a different and potentially more volatile story developing." We tend to agree with the second explanation, which also leads to another surprising conclusion...