What happens next may put the past 7 years of simple "financial repression" and central bank failure to shame: in a lunch address by Princeton University economist Christopher Sims, "policymakers were told that it may take a massive program, large enough even to shock taxpayers into a different, inflationary view of the future."
What is happening this year is astounding. After saying year after year after year that the recovery is coming, and even doing so to the point of condescension, the admissions of wrongfulness are starting to roll in, if only softly at first. How ludicrous does “transitory” look now?
That's what St. Louis Fed president James Bullard would like to know: "I think that Dustin Moskovitz should be here, maybe he can helicopter in from Sun Valley or something instead of sending all these people, if he wants low interest rates."
“...the only way gold loses is if normal business and private sector cycles come back. If that is the case, gold goes back $100 per ounce. The other outcomes: deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation are all good for gold.” As for a return to a gold standard, Shvets has more bad news: “Gold standards come back after the war, not before the war.”
The last 20 years have brought great wealth to a few while most of the population was lucky to break even. Whether you’re a member of the elite/protected class or one of the unprotected, it’s hard to deny this reality. Globalization has created divisions between skilled and unskilled workers. Too few of the gains from growing trade are going to the unprotected class. They’re angry. We’re seeing this backlash now in people’s attraction to Trump, who promise to bring jobs back.
European stocks are down led by tech, chemicals, alongside EM stocks which retreated from near a one-year high and oil fell for the first time in a week after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials revived bets on U.S. interest rate rises this year, and pushed the dollar higher from 7 week lows ahead of today's Fed Minutes. S&P 500 futures were little changed following yesterday's drop from record highs
According to John Williams, central banks and governments must come up with new monetary and fiscal policies to kickstart a global economy which is barely growing (thanks to 7 years of flawed monetary policy). "We can wait for the next storm and hope for better outcomes or prepare for them now and be ready." As a result, Williams believes that a major fiscal stimulus thrust is now critical to propel the US economy higher. And he is, mostly, right. There is just one problem...
With Wall Street hitting peak vacation season, it is a quiet week for news. The key economic release this week is CPI inflation on Tuesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Many will be looking for signs of hawkishness Minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.
If you’re looking for a new job, skip the applications and phone a friend. That’s the ideal way to clinch a new position according to recent research by David Wiczer at the St. Louis Fed. He looked at the Survey of Consumer Expectations from 2013 to compare employment trends on those who “directly contacted organizations about posted vacancies or received referrals through their network.” Here are his findings:
"Zero interest rates and negative interest rates and Europe and Asia are a huge signal that we are almost at the point where central banks have lost their tools to perpetuate a sense of confidence, that things are cyclical.... If you were to apply the Bretton Woods model for valuing money today, gold would be up to $15,000 an ounce..."