• Sprott Money
    03/05/2015 - 04:16
    One interpretation is that we are living in the best of all possible worlds. Another is that we are being led to financial slaughter.

St Louis Fed

St Louis Fed
Tyler Durden's picture

Chart Of The Day: Recession Dead Ahead?





The past two times US manufacturing orders declined at this rate, the US economy was already in a recession.

 
StalingradandPoorski's picture

Irrational Exuberance 2.0





What people and central bankers do not understand, is that you can't devalue your way to prosperity. Absolutely nothing has changed since the last crisis. The same too big too fail banks have only gotten much bigger. The same people that were in charge leading into the crisis and during it, are the same people who are in charge of fixing it. New regulations were established to try and regulate the industry, but they will be proven to be ineffective. Why? Because the Volcker Rule and Dodd-Frank have had all the important elements removed, thanks to the massive lobbying power of the TBTF banks and the Fed.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"We Are Failing To Deliver On Our Obligations As Americans"





"...we are failing to deliver on our obligations as Americans, that is undeniable.  We are allowing the political class to plunder our wealth, negate our freedoms and desecrate our Constitution.  Sadly we have become the immoral populace our founding fathers warned all future generations not to become... The duty and obligation is ours and so too then are the failures and successes of our society. We are 15 years in to what is absolute denial regarding the competence of our nation’s policymakers. Yet here we sit, silent and indifferent to our own demise; so completely antithetical to the character of a true American."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Market Wrap: Futures Fractionally Red Ahead Of Pre-Weekend "Nasdaq 5000" Push





If there isone thing that is virtually certain about today's trading (aside from the post Rig Count surge in oil because if there is one thing algos are, it is predictable) is that despite S&P futures being a touch red right now, everything will be forgotten in a few minutes and yet another uSDJPY momentum ignition ramp will proceed, which will push the S&P forward multiple to 18.0x on two things i) it's Friday, and an implicit rule of thumb of central planning is the market can't close in confidenece-sapping red territory ahead of spending heavy weekends and ii) the Nasdaq will finally recapture 5000 following a final push from Apple's bondholders whose recent use of stock buyback proceeds will be converted into recorder highs for the stock, and thus the Nasdaq's crossing into 5,000 territory because in the New Normal, the more expensive something is, the more people, or rather algos, want to buy it.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Market Is A Red Herring... Distracting Us From The Reality Of The Economy





Janet Yellen once again repeats that the economy is “looking stronger” although still it has yet to manifest into actual strength.  In fact, it is still so weak that the Fed cannot even suggest that rates will raise anytime over the next several FOMC meetings.  In short, the economy is still very sick. The Pundits (Liesman) are suggesting Janet feels the economy is strong but that the “data just isn’t cooperating”.  What does that even mean?? The market is a red herring of sorts keeping our attention away from the reality of the economy.  And so, to give up the market strength would be synonymous to removing the one remaining support holding up that 100 storey building that is otherwise completely rotted.  Only when the economy is able to withstand a market repricing will the Fed allow the market to reprice.

 
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Another Bubble Pops: Price Of Farmland Suffers First Annual Decline Since 1986





One of the bigger asset bubbles in recent US history has nothing to do with stock, bonds or commodities, We are talking about farmland. And yet, like all other bubbles - be they the result of retail euphoria or central bank rigging - this one too must come to a close, and as the WSJ reports, the first crack in the farmland bubble are appearing, after farmland values declined in parts of the Midwest for the first time in decades last year "reflecting a cooling in the market driven by two years of bumper crops and sharply lower grain prices, according to Federal Reserve reports on Thursday." the average price of farmland in the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s district, which includes Illinois, Iowa and other big farm states, fell 3% in 2014, marking the first annual decline since 1986, which makes farmlands the only asset class that had not seen a down year in nearly three decades!

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Controlling Today's Perception Of Tomorrow's Economic Strength" Is THE Fed Mandate





Controlling (stabilizing) today’s perception of tomorrow’s economic strength attached to (and thus backing) the USD is the Fed mandate. For if we lose control of today’s false perception well then god only knows what tomorrow’s given value may be. This is the absolute ‘mandate’ of central banking.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Real Estate Socialism





The fundamental problem with real estate is cost.  The average household, whether renters or homeowners, is allocating too much of its income to housing.  As a result, public policies are likely to continue in the direction of more subsidies, such the Federal Reserve’s manipulation of long term rates, and more regulations, such as eviction and foreclosure prevention, and rent controls.  Real estate, could become a lot less “real” in the foreseeable future. As the market has witnessed since 2007, the Government could dictate the conditions of real estate ownership, even when it was not the lender.  Today, it is in full control. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Even Warren Buffett Must Be Getting Concerned At This Market





Adjusting Warren Buffett's favorite indicator for 'the giant con that America is still enjoying growing economic prosperity - predicated on debt being the bridge between rising GDP and a declining economy' suggests today’s true market valuation is more than twice the previous all time high in 2000.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

This Is For You Steve Liesman... Welcome To Economics





The key is to understand why real median household incomes continue to decline and then how to correct it.  It all comes back to financial policies that incentivize investors to avoid economy-boosting investments and toward financial investments that have no economic benefit.  The result is a narrowing of income distribution exasperating the down spiral, while inflating wealth to the already wealthy.  As long as these policies remain intact the American quality of life will continue to spiral downward while the wealth at the top continues to accelerate until one day when the top pops off and all that wealth goes abroad.  And that Mr. Liesman is what we call economics.

 
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2014 Year In Review (Part 2): Will 2015 Be The Year It All Comes Tumbling Down?





Despite the authorities' best efforts to keep everything orderly, we know how this global Game of Geopolitical Tetris ends: "Players lose a typical game of Tetris when they can no longer keep up with the increasing speed, and the Tetriminos stack up to the top of the playing field. This is commonly referred to as topping out."

"I’m tired of being outraged!"

 
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2014 Year In Review (Part 1): The Final Throes Of A Geopolitical Game Of Tetris





Every year, David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. "I have not seen a year in which so many risks - some truly existential - piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. It feels like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows..."

 
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A Comprehensive Breakdown of America’s Economic House of Cards





America has created a moral hazard for all Americans in that we feel we always have a fail safe no matter what we do because we’ve always succeeded.  But so too had every other great dynasty until it didn’t.  If we do not force a change in our economic policies we are very close to and perhaps already past the point of no return.  I have no witting quip to end this article.  The economic landscape we face today is nothing short of dire.  And at the risk of sounding overdramatic we either force a policy change, suffer the short term pain and restructure or we and all future generations will live in a very different America from the one our folks left us. 

 
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