St Louis Fed

St Louis Fed

Global Rally Fizzles After "OPEC Shock" In "Slow Risk-Off Session"

S&P futures were fractionally lower from yesterday's record high as European stocks declined and Asian stocks were mixed, pressured by yesterday's 5% plunge in crude after OPEC unexpectedly "failed to surprise" markets, and announced the bare minimum supply cut extension that was expected by oil traders, who in turn puked long positions.

Key Events In The Coming Week: FOMC Minutes, GDP, BOC, OPEC And More

The key economic releases this week are the durable goods report and Q1 GDP revision on Friday. The minutes of the May FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week

Don't Show Jim Bullard This Chart

St. Louis President James Bullard said that "though equity valuations are high"... "we are not in anything like what we saw with the housing bubble.” He is right: on a Price-to-Sales ratio, we are much higher...

Key Events In The Coming Week: Inflation, Spending In The Spotlight

With the French election now finally in the rearview mirror, this week's focus is on global inflation releases, with the spotlight falling on the US and China. We also have BoE and RBNZ rates meetings. In other data we note industrial production in the Eurozone, UK and Norway along with US retail sales and Fed speakers.

Macron Victory Leads To "Risk Macr-Off" In Europe, Poor China Trade Data Doesn't Help

It was supposed to be Risk Macr-ON after Emmanuel Macron's avalanche victory in Sunday's French presidential elections; instead as some banks cautioned and as we showed early in the overnight session, the market reaction has been the opposite with the victory fully priced in and especially in the European currencies and stocks, as well as S&P futures, we have seen a modest episode of Risk Macr-Off.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: FOMC, Payrolls, 131 S&P Companies Report

Besides the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 2-3, and French & Italian politics - the decisive runoff round of the French election takes place this Sunday - this week's releases are dominated by US payrolls expected to come around 170k. The busy release calendar continues with Norges bank and RBA meetings as well as global manufacturing PMIs.

Key Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week

In this holiday-shortened week (markets closed for Good Friday), focus turns to several inflation prints in G10 in the week ahead, with US and UK inflation data likely to get the most attention. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials, including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Monday.

Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Headed For The Crapper?

It’s no secret the plumbers at the Fed are feverishly devising a way to unwind their $4.5 trillion balance sheet with officials claiming this will nary elicit an inkling of a disturbance in the markets they’ve coddled all these years. But one must wonder, at the timing, at the ostensive optics, if nothing else...Unless, that is, the motivations of shrinkage are less than magnanimous and dare one say, immoral.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the PCE report as well as Personal Income & Spending data on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday.

Key Events In The Coming US

The main focus this week will be on President Trump's speech to Congress and Chair Yellen's speech which is the last before the blackout period. US durable goods, ISM, the BoC rate decision, EZ CPI, UK PMIs and a busy calendar in Australia & Scandinavia also coming up.

There's Not Nearly Enough Growth To Keep Growing

This turn inward - protectionism if you will - in the UK, US and many other places, is an inevitable development that follows from declining growth and soaring debt. Entire societies will have to be re-built from the ground up, and people will want to do that themselves, not have it dictated by strangers. At the same time, of course, those who profit most from centralization want that to continue. They can’t, but they will try, and hard.