In the latest clear sign that low oil prices are taking their indirect toll not only the US shale sector, leading to billions in capex cuts and hundreds of thousands of lost oil and gas jobs, on Friday Saudi newspaper al-Watan reported that the multinational construction conglomerate Saudi Binladin Group (which was founded in 1931 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Laden Sayyid, father of Osama bin Laden who was removed as a shareholder in the business in 1993 and disowned by the family) has laid off 50,000 staff as pressure on the industry rises amid government spending cuts to survive an era of cheap oil.
Following yesterday's Yen surge in the aftermath of the disappointing BOJ announcement, the pain for USDJPY long continued, with the key carry pair tumbling as low as 106, the lowest level since October 2014 before stabilizing around 107, and is now headed for its biggest weekly gain since 2008, which in turn has pushed the US dollar to to its lowest close in almost a year as signs of slowing growth in the U.S. dimmed prospects for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. As a result, global stocks fell and commodities extended gains in their best month since 2010.
Fed Removes "Global Risk" Alert But Keeps Monitoring "Global Economic And Financial Developments" - Full Statement RedlineSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/27/2016 14:02 -0400
Since Yellow-Yellen's March dovefest, stocks have rallied, China has stabilized, and while economic data has been weak in general - jobs and inflation (which is what The Fed claims to care about) have been positive. So how does The Fed make June a live meeting, tilt hawkish, and still protect the narrative of recovery and the sanctity of their equity market (which is all that really matters)...
- *FED REMOVES REFERENCE TO GLOBAL EVENTS POSING RISKS TO OUTLOOK
- *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET IMPROVED EVEN AMID SIGNS OF SLOWER GROWTH
- *FED REPEATS ECONOMIC SITUATION WARRANTS ONLY GRADUAL RATE HIKES
So "risks" are "balanced" and The Fed is "data depedent" again - rate-hikes are back on the table, however here is a key change: instead of monitoring "inflation developments" the Fed is now "monitoring inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments" which is effectively the same as the struck language on "global economic and financial developments."
Sorry Credit Suisse, The Short Covering Isn't Over... But You May Be Right About The New "Pain Trade"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2016 13:40 -0400
In Credit Suisse's Top 10 market notes from this morning, we found an interesting comments, one which according to the author could mean some semblance of normalcy was returning to the market.
It is quite evident there is something amiss about the BLS’ employment reports. Is the disparity simply an anomaly in the seasonal adjustments caused by the depth of the financial crisis? Is there an exceptional and unaccounted for margin of error in the surveys? Or, is it something more intentional by government-related agencies to keep “confidence” elevated as Central Banks globally “paddle like crazy” to keep global economies afloat.
The April FOMC gathering headlines a crowded economic events calendar this week. The post-meeting statement, released Wednesday afternoon, should continue to strike a cautious tone. There will be no press conference and updated economic and financial forecasts will not be released. Few expect the FOMC to add the “balance of risks” sentence back into its communiqué at this point. Doing so would be quite bearish for risk assets as it would definitely open the door for a June rate hike.
Today, looking at the technical evidence that, so far, suggests that there is zero evidence to suggest that we are in a bull market. In fact it appears there is risk building that this is a completely broken market in its final inning. Yes we’ve had a massive rally off of the February lows, but the technical evidence is mounting that this may still be a bear market rally. Why? Because key charts remain decisively bearish and any sizable pullback could literally kill any notion of a bull market...
Less than three months following our warning about a "constant oil short squeeze", it is time to unveil the next warning: one of a potentially big drop in the oil price as now record speculative oil longs proceed to cover on the other side, unleashing a selling scramble lower.
Unfortunately, when central-planners "drag forward" future consumption today, you leave a "void" in the future that must be filled. That future "void" continues to expand each time activity is dragged forward until, inevitably, it can not be filled. This is currently being witnessed in the overall data trends as seen in the deterioration in corporate earnings and revenues. The only question is whether Central Banks can continue to support asset prices long enough for the economic cycle to catch up. Historically, such is a feat that has never been accomplished.
The backlash has been intense against the German Chancellor as many claim this is an outrageous infringement of free speech, and to add insult to injury, it's being used simply to placate Erdogan who already has strained relations with the German people over the Syrian refugee crisis. As the Telegraph reports, Merkel is now facing a government rebellion over her decision.
US Government "Agrees In Principle" With Volkswagen's $10 Billion-plus 'Sorry-We-Cheated' Compensation PlanSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2016 11:23 -0400
Judge Charles Breyer has confirmed that Volkswagen's $10 billion-plus plan to resolve claims by the U.S. government and lawsuits by American car owners over its pollution-cheating debacle has been 'agreed in principle' by the Justice Department and various other US agencies. The plan covers at least 480,000 cars in the US and over 600 lawsuits offering consumers flexibility including buybacks and "substantial compensation," but does not address fines or penalties.
Gold has topped $1270 this morning as faith in Draghi falters, pushing back to one-month highs but once again it is silver that is grabbing the headlines, soaring above $17.50 and pushing to 11-month highs (now up 9 of the last 11 days). The buying started in China once again as hording continues but other catalysts include solar demand, central bank fragility, and gold-silver technicals.
One day after stocks were this close from hitting new all time highs on what have been either ok earnings, if looking at non-GAAP data, or atrocious earnings, based on GAAP, and where any oil headline is now immediately translated as bullish by the oil algos, so far futures are relatively flat, while European stocks were at their moments ago in anticipation of the latest ECB announcement due out in just one hour. However, unlike last month's "quad-bazooka", this time the market expects far less from Draghi. “Having pulled put the monetary bazooka in March, the market is sensibly expecting no further policy measures from the ECB,”