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"I do believe that markets ultimately prevail. I do believe that supply and demand will ultimately prevail. I’m confident that we will see that occur... The fact there are some very substantial new players coming into the sector and taking positions in gold and silver... I think that’s showing that things will change and I think things are in the works as we speak."

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Each of the 3 stages needed to move to a sustainable price have to be given time to play out. The rig count story has been told with a brutally fast 60 percent drop. Meaningful production declines are on. Next will be inventory draw downs; in that order. As to the latter, we’re just beginning to see the effects of the rig count. Large drawdowns will be here sooner than predicted.

Non-bombasitc overview of the investment climate.  No, the sky is not falling.  This is not the end of days.  

"It’s my sense that this is happening, unless they change their minds"...

"As interest rates go more negative, market participants will have increasing incentives to make payments quickly and to receive payments in forms that can be collected slowly. This is exactly the opposite of what happened when short-term interest rates skyrocketed in the late 1970s: people then wanted to delay making payments as long as possible and to collect payments as quickly as possible.... if interest rates go negative, we may see an epochal outburst of socially unproductive—even if individually beneficial—financial innovation."

Europeans are caught between being compelled to help - on what is truly a humanitarian catastrophe - and dealing with the uncertain consequences of bringing in such a large number of people. Part of that anxiety relates to the fact that the majority of those migrants adhere to Islam, where its relationship with Europe has been uneasy for many centuries. However, framing the debate in religious terms is too simplistic and overlooks some important facts. Whatever your view is, one thing is clear: Europe will never be the same again.

"The refugee crisis is undermining the EU’s fundamental principle of free cross-border movement within the Union… This is effectively throwing the EU’s very future in question. This may signal the beginning of the end, the stakes are extremely high."

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With a 54-0 record without a rate hike (better than Floyd Mayweather's), and 58 Economisseds expecting no change, 3 a half-pregnant 13bps hike, and 53 expecting a 25bps hike, The Fed was always going to break someone's heart today. Bond yields and the USD were tumbling into the decision, which appeared correct as The Fed chickened out again...

• **FOMC: NO POLICY CHANGE, 0-0.25% TARGET 'REMAINS APPROPRIATE'
  
• **FOMC: GLOBAL ECON,FIN EVENTS 'MAY RESTRAIN ECON ACTIVITY'
  
• **FOMC: VOTE 9-1; LACKER DISSENTS, WANTED 25 BPS HIKE

Given the "no hike", it is clear that, as we noted, Goldman is still in charge and Hilsy is still leaker-in-chief. All eyes now on the dot-plots as The Fed desperately tries to regain some credibility, stifle uncertainty, and calmly reassure markets that "we've got your back."

Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 2000.5, 10Y 2.26%, 2Y 77.5bps, EUR 1.1330, Gold $1118

Today, most of the developing world, tomorrow most of the developed world. Today Ukraine, Syria, South Africa and Brazil. Tomorrow Ireland, Greece, the UK, the EU, other Middle Eastern and African nations and the U.S. (see important charts) 

News That Matters

That low oil prices are squeezing out oil sands producers is not breaking news. But in spite of a grim oil price outlook, production out of Calgary has continued to grow, defying both expectations and logic. The implications are serious, not just for the future of Canada’s energy industry and economy, but also North American energy relations.

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If you want a nation of criminals, treat the citizenry like criminals. If you want young people who grow up seeing themselves as prisoners, run the schools like prisons. But if you want to raise up a generation of freedom fighters, who will actually operate with justice, fairness, accountability and equality towards each other and their government, then run the schools like freedom forums. Remove the metal detectors and surveillance cameras, re-assign the cops elsewhere, and start treating our nation’s young people like citizens of a republic and not inmates in a police state.