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For weeks in a row, every new instance of an E.coli outbreak at Chipotle was taken by the BTFD crowd as an opportunity to, well, BTF-E.Coli, and as a result sharp intraday drops on recurring disease outbreak headlines led to prompt recoveries in CMG's price. However, this may no longer be the case: following yesterday's announcement of yet more cases emerging involving E.coli, one of CMG's biggest defenders, JPM analyst John Ivankoe has thrown in the towel, and first thing this morning downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral, and lowered his target stock price from $630 to $555.

"Things took off beginning in September. Since then, our dealers have been totally overrun. We have never experienced anything like this in the 21 years of our corporate history. Fear: This is not rational. The important term is: 'refugee crisis'."

One could be forgiven to hypothesize that there would be some negative response in the travel to the Middle East.  Instead as shown below, this regional hotbed continues to see a stunning record growth in passenger traffic from America.  And this unusual growth stands out as the highest of any destination.

Following the latest BOJ statement, the market found itself wrongfooted assuming the BOJ was actually launching another episode of easing, sending the USDJPY soaring, until suddenly the realization swept the market that not only was the incremental action not really material, but even Kuroda spoke shortly after the announcement, confirming that "today's decision wasn't additional easing." The result was one of the biggest FX headfakes in recent days, perhaps on par with that from December 4 when EUR shorts were crushed, as the biggest carry pair first soared then tumbled and since the Yen correlation drives so many risk assets, also pulled down not only Japanese stocks but US equity futures.

“After reviewing his email practices earlier this year, the secretary believes that his previous, occasional use of personal email for work-related business, even for routine administrative issues and backed up to his official account, was a mistake."

TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN: "Something big is going down. Something very big. It will make national headlines... I am a devout Muslim, and was once against violence, but I have teamed up with a local jihadist cell as it is the only way I'll be able to accomplish my massacre the correct way... I wish you the best luck. It is time to pray to allah, as this may be your last day."

The day has come when the boxed-in Fed has no choice: with the vast majority of the market expecting a rate hike, Yellen has to deliver or suffer a crushing confidence blow like no other. And deliver she will, with expectations that said hike will be "as dovish as possible." For now however, the market is desperate to convince itself that just as more easing and more QE were bullish for the market, so rate hikes are just as bullish. Recall from late 2013: "tapering is not tightening," then the 2015 version of this refrain is "tightening is not tightening."

With economic growth currently running at THE LOWEST average growth rate in American history, the time frame between the first rate and next recession will not be long. For investors, there is little “reward” in the current environment for taking on excess exposure to risk assets. The deteriorating junk bond market, declining profitability and weak economic underpinnings suggest that the clock has already begun ticking. The only question is how much time is left.

Where most analysis on oil markets tends to fall short is on the depth of analysis vs. reading headlines and group think, the latter of which is heavily shaped by misinformed media and government propaganda.

The start of the Fed's most eagerly awaited two-day policy meeting in years has finally arrived with the market expecting Yellen to announce the first 25 bps rate hike in 9 years tomorrow with nearly 80% probability, and so far US equity futures are enjoying a last minute relief rally, while emerging market stocks rose for the first day in ten after the longest losing run since June. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index has also rebounded from a five-day losing streak, the worst in over four months.

Despite the decline in stock valuations, US equities have performed far better than credit, causing investors to ask us, “What does the credit market see that the equity market does not?” Credit markets are reacting to a real deterioration in corporate balance sheets that the equity market has yet to digest. High yield (HY) credit spreads have widened dramatically since June and are currently in territory typical of recessionary environments. In contrast, the S&P 500 is just 6% below its all time high of 2131 reached in May of this year. Here are five observations...

If anyone on this planet could be accused of tying Marissa Mayer's sexuality to her career, I think one need look no farther than the woman herself.

"The Fed will drive home the lower and slower mantra. That is all spin, signifying nothing... There are so many unknowns, good and bad. Either way, absolutely ignore the "it’s priced in" claims... The Fed is going to raise rates next week, and anyone who claims it is not a huge deal is fooling you, as well as themselves."

This afternoon we got another completely amorphous claim from The Pentagon regarding the death of a “senior” ISIS commander when Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL (whatever that is) Brett McGurk took to Twiiter to announce the death of an Islamic State FinMin.

Flashing red headlines, business media anchors exuberant as gun-maker stocks weresold after CT Governor Malloy unveiled his executive order and following White House chatter that officials were finalizing proposal that would expand background checks on gun sales without congressional approval. We thought the following charts would provide a little context for this "selling"...