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With a 4% probability, it is no surprise that The Fed did not raise rates. Since The FOMC "folded" in September blaming global turmoil, stocks, bonds, and precious metals have soared as China (and EM) chaos has calmed while domestic data has declined. This has led to 'lift-off' expectations extending to April 2016, and so the question today is - how will The Fed convince the world it 'will' raise rates when it really can't...

• *FED REMOVES LINE THAT GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS MAY RESTRAIN GROWTH
  
• *FED SAYS U.S. ECONOMY `HAS BEEN EXPANDING AT A MODERATE PACE'

A definite hawkish bias but so we are left data-dependent (fundamentals bad, stocks good), and less economically optimistic, but are supposed to believe that December (34%) is still a live meeting (because of some hockey-stick expectation in data) because The Fed needs to raise to show that it can.

First it was wildfires, then it was unprecedented flooding, and now it is earthquakes.  In the past two weeks alone, more than 400 earthquakes have shaken San Ramon – a small city that sits approximately 45 miles east of San Francisco.  Never before have so many earthquakes been recorded in that area in such a short span of time. 

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Two biggest move overnight came from everyone's favorite carry pair, the USDJPY, which may have finally read what we said yesterday, namely that with the Fed and ECB both doing its job, there is little need for the Bank of Japan to repeat its Halloween massacre for the second year in a row, and as a result will keep its QQE program unchanged. It promptly tumbled from its 121 tractor level, to just above 120.25, where BOJ bids were said to be found. With the FOMC October meeting starting today, the other overnight catalyst was not surprisingly the latest Hilsenrath scribe in which he removed any uncertainty about a Wednesday hike, "leaving mid-December as the central bank’s last chance to raise rates this year."

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OPEC altered the course of the oil markets last year when it decided to cast aside its traditional role of maintaining balance through production cuts. Instead it pursued a strategy of fighting for market share, contributing to an immediate rout in oil prices. WTI and Brent then went on to dive below $50 in the weeks following OPEC’s decision. OPEC is widely expected to continue its current strategy at its next meeting, and as such, no rebound in oil prices is expected, at least not because of the results of the group’s meeting in Vienna. But that raises a question about what the world of oil expects from OPEC: Why is it that the responsibility for balancing the market falls on OPEC? Why should OPEC be the one to fix the imbalances in the global crude oil trade?

One would think that 'little incident in August' never happened. Yes, the markets once again rewarded the BTFD crowd. But (and it’s a very big but) not because it’s a market. This is what takes place in a casino. Confusing financial market expertise and casino gambling is the mistake today’s “bull” crowd keeps making. And just like most gamblers – the odds turn out of your favor just when you believed you had “the” sure-fire system to beat them.

When it comes to “prepping”, many among the elite take things to an entirely different level. 

September Existing Home Sales fell 6.5% from August, but you will not see that in the headlines as after adjustments for seasonals, existing home sales actually rose in September by 4.7%, bouncing back from a 5.0% revised lower drop in August (and beating expectatations of a mere 1.5% rise). 2015 has seen unprecedented volatility in the NAR's reported data, but a they note, "Unfortunately, first–time buyers are still failing to generate any meaningful traction this year."

As always happens after shocking events like yesterday which "nobody could have possibly predicted", watching the Penguin gallery reel in its humiliation is absolutely worth the price of admission.

After yesterday's dramatic late day market rout catalyzed by the tumble in the biotech sector in general, and Valeant in particular, and foreseen in its entirety by Gartman who went bullish just hours before, this morning US equity futures and European stocks have recouped some losses on the recursive, and traditional, hope that Mario Draghi will say something to push risk higher when he speaks in 2 hours at the ECB's press conference in Malta. And yet, just like Yellen a month ago, Draghi faces the paradox of reflexivity that after years of being ignored, is the "new thing" in town: how does he intervene and demonstrate he is readier than ever to set up stimulus, without panicking investors over euro area’s health.

Valeant Pharma is halted for the 4th time today, this time for news pending, as the stock has lost 40% of its value since the open...

"As examples of products that were not made entirely in the US — contrary to their billing — it highlighted a sandwich bag that was produced in Thailand and a toy car that was assembled in the US with some imported parts, including a Chinese steering wheel."

The global elite have never been closer to their goal of a united world.  Thanks to a series of interlocking treaties and international agreements, the governance of this planet is increasingly becoming globalized and centralized, but most people don’t seem alarmed by this at all.  In the past 30 days, we have seen some of the biggest steps toward a one world government, a one world economy and a one world religion that we have ever witnessed, but these events have sparked very little public discussion or debate...

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