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headlines

Oil Tumbles After Saudis Say They Will Freeze Oil Production Only If Iran Joins

And so the great "oil production freeze" rumor, which helped halt oil's plunge after it hit a 13 year low in early February and forced a 50% short squeeze higher,has died after Bloomberg released an interview with Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in which when asked if Iran needs to join freeze, he said: "without a doubt. If all countries including Iran, Russia, Venezuela, OPEC countries and all main producers decide to freeze production, we will be among them." 

Jobless Claims Surge Most In 2 Years As Challenger Warns Of "Significant" Jump In Retail, Computer Layoffs

With both ISM Manufacturing and Services employment indices collapsing, endless headlines of layoffs, Challenger-Grey noting Q1 as the worst since 2009, and NFIB small business hiring weak, it is no surprise that initial jobless claims is finally waking up. For the 3rd week in a row - the longest streak since July 2015. The lasty 3 weeks have seen a 9.1% surge in jobless claims - the biggest such rise since April 2014.

We're Not Going To Make It... (Without Real Sacrifice)

Anybody paying into a pension or trying to manage an endowment that needs to be there in 30 or 40 years (or forever, as is the case for university endowments) needs to understand that projections based on prior rates of economic growth are fantasies, hatched when we had the luxury of pretending there were no energy limits. The restructuring of our energy economy, if taken under our own terms and on our own timelines, will utterly crush traditional economic growth as we’ve come to know and love it.

The End Of Europe As We Know It?

Amid secular stagnation, the Eurozone's old fiscal, monetary and banking challenges are escalating, along with new threats, including the Brexit, demise of Schengen, anti-EU opposition and geopolitical friction. Brussels can no longer avoid hard political decisions for or against an integrated Europe, with or without the euro.

Futures, Oil Dip On Stronger Dollar Ahead Of "Hawkish" Yellen Speech

With Europe back from Easter break, we are seeing a modest continuation of the dollar strength witnessed every day last week, which in turn is pressuring oil and the commodity complex, and leading to some selling in US equity futures (down 0.2% to 2024) ahead of today's main event which is Janet Yellen's speech as the Economic Club of New York at 12:20pm, an event which judging by risk assets so far is expected to be far more hawkish than dovish: after all the S&P 500 is north of 2,000 for now.

Dallas Fed Respondent Sums It Up: "Anyone Saying We're Not In Recession Is Peddling Fiction"

Headlines will crow of the seasonally-adjusted 'beat' of expectations for the Dallas Fed survey (-13.6 vs -25.8 exp) but this is the 15th month in contraction (below 0) - something only seen in recession. Scratching below the surface we see employees, workweek, and capex all in contraction and forward expectations for new orders and employment tumbled. Perhaps that reality is what drove one respondent to rage, "anyone who says the economy is not in recession is peddling fiction."

Police Officer Shot At Capitol, Shooter In Custody - Live Feed

Update: *SHOOTING AT CAPITOL VISITOR CENTER, SHOOTER IS DOWN: WUSA9

Information is sparse for now but headlines and images show a mass evacuation of tourists (police telling them to run away) and Capitol Police report: SHOTS FIRED AT U.S. CAPITOL VISITOR CENTER: CAPITOL POLICE. The PA System has declared "shelter in place" as the situation evolves.

Condaleeza Rice To Struggling Ukrainians: "Be Thankful You're Not In Liberia"

There is effectively no state in Ukraine. The authorities are busy ingratiating themselves with every available power figure — the US Embassy, local oligarchs, Right Sector, and various Mafia groups — seeing in those the only keys to the government’s own legitimacy and ability to hold on to power. But one point that they apparently do not understand is that any government lacking public support on the ground and dependent on exterior agents is more vulnerable than they could ever imagine.

Why Oil Prices Are About To Plunge Again: 31 Million Barrels In Floating Storage Are Coming On Shore

Based on the all-in cost of operating tanker storage (dirty VLCC tanker day rates, financing, transit and transfer loss, insurance and bunkers, Figure 5), the current storage cost is too high relative to the steepness of the Brent forward curve. This means that prices do not justify inventory build, but rather gradual inventory drawdown as existing storage trades are unwound.  Comparing the current level of floating storage (157.3 million barrels) versus that in early February (126.6 million barrels), there may be an additional 31 million barrels of inventory to be drawn down between now and the next inventory trough over the next several months.

ETF WTF - "Dogs Of The Dow" Dead-Cat-Bounce Dies Horrible Death

We can only assume this is some chaoitic ETF liquidty disaster but, quietly under the headlines, the so-called "Dogs of The Dow" ETF - a basket of the highest-yielding equities in The Dow - has exploded from $16.50 to $21.60 in the last 3 days. This 31% spike however, has now been erased in one day as the ETF collapsed back to reality. So much for the liquidty-providers...