After Yellen, Saudi-Yemen, and Fischer headlines roundtripped crude prices for the day, Baker Hughes' oil rig count was unchanged for the week at 406 (ending 8 straight weeks of rises). Crude prices are rising modestly on the news...
The Fed isn’t hawkish. Beyond the consistent headlines talking up an imminent Fed hike or regurgitating the truism that every meeting is “live,” the substance of recent commentary from policy makers has been notable for its balance, and that’s a dovish shift... but with the economy sagging once again, is the market priced for such an outcome as Janet 'fesses up to the limits of monetary policy?
The Obamacare exchange in Tennessee is "very near collapse" as insurers are imposing nearly 60% YoY premium hikes and pulling back on coverage areas which could leave certain counties with no health insurance options at all...
In a rerun of yesterday's overnight session, European indexes trade higher while US index futures were modestly in the green, set to propel the S&P 500 to new all time highs. Emerging Market dropped the most in three weeks alongside commodities, as today the market was predisposed hawkishly on a US rate hike ahead of Yellen's Friday speech, pushing the US dollar higher and oil resumed its pre "anonymous sources" headlines slide.
It's them Ruskies again! With pressure on Obama over his visit to Louisiana, and Hillary facing an avalanche of headlines over her "email crimes," it is time for a distraction... CNN reports, hackers thought to be working for Russian intelligence have carried out a series of cyber breaches targeting reporters at the New York Times and other US news organizations, according to US officials briefed on the matter.
Hillary Clinton is 68 years old. She's been diagnosed with cerebral venous thrombosis; head trauma, pregnancy, cancer, brain infection, autoimmune diseases and inborn clotting abnormalities are all predisposing factors, per the Washington Post. She's currently taking blood thinners. Four years ago, Clinton fainted, hit her head and suffered a concussion. But lately many in the media have become outraged that Clinton's health is being broached at all.
While the summer doldrums continue, with little market-moving newsflow overnight and zombified volumes, US futures crept higher and European shares rose after EU PMIs printed modestly better than expected, while a return to dollar weakness pushed emerging markets higher, even if it failed to boost oil which as we noted last night was downgraded by Goldman on various fundamental reasons.
"Supply continues to feature the cross currents of rising low-cost supply, declining high-cost production, and new project ramp up. In fact, marginally more bearish data recently than we had assumed suggests in our view that the recent price rally should stall... While discussions of an OPEC freeze and a weakening dollar have been catalysts for the sharp reversal in oil prices this month, we believe neither will be sufficient to support prices much further"
The past week saw the biggest crude oil short squeeze on record as money managers cut bets on falling prices by the most ever. Hedge funds trimmed their short position in WTI by 56,907 futures and options during the week ended Aug. 16,the most in data going back to 2006. As a result WTI soared nearly 10% in the past week, pushing it into a bull market just three weeks after it tumbled into a bear market.
"I do not want to insult you, but maybe we'll just have to decide to separate from the United Nations," Rodrigo Duterte told journalists on Sunday. "Why do you have to listen to this stupid? I don't give a shit about them,” he added. “They are the ones interfering. You do not just go out and give a shitting statement against a country."
While much of the media focus over the past week has been on the potential corruption scandal involving Ukraine's former president and Donald Trump's now former advisor, Paul Manafort, perhaps it is time for it to shift attention to the Podesta Group, the lobbying firm which belongs to Tony Podesta, the brother of Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta
Although it’s easy to dismiss this long, strange electoral trip as a passing political malady rising from America’s fever swamps, there are plenty of good reasons to get into the tin foil millinery business.
With Fed speakers attempting to jawbone the current narrative back from the uber-dovish record-high-creating Fed statement, all eyes today were glued on how hawkish the statement would be with regard 2016 hikes - few, some, or many? Since The Fed statement, GDP expectations have crashed to cycle lows but that has not seemed to stop The Fed:
*FED OFFICIALS SPLIT IN JULY ON WHETHER RATE HIKE NEEDED SOON
*A COUPLE FED OFFICIALS BACKED JULY RATE HIKE
*FOMC VOTERS AGREED TO WAIT FOR MORE DATA TO GAUGE ECONOMY
But perhaps most notably, several Fed officials are concerned of financial risks from too low rates.