David Rosenberg

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Zero Hedge Endorses David Rosenberg's Demand To "Ban The Bailout"





Zero Hedge fully endorses David Rosenberg's latest call: Ban The Bailout

First we have governments bailing out banks (and auto companies and mortgage providers), homeowner debtors, and now we have governments bailing out governments. When does someone finally say — enough is enough!
Look, Greece is not going to “fail”. They are going to default. There will be a debt restructuring. And there will be some recovery. Bondholders will take a haircut — why shouldn’t they? Why should Angela Merkel care if German banks own Greek bonds? Greece has been in default in its recent 200-year history almost half the time. So has most of Latin America come to think of it. What about Russia?

 
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Big Picture Update From David Rosenberg





The drama continues following S&P’s slice to Greece’s debt rating (to junk status of BB+, a three-notch decline, which prompted a surge in 2-year bond yields to a Zeus-like 15%) and the two-notch decline to Portugal’s rating, to A- from A+. The Euro has bounced back this morning and the flight to higher quality German and French bonds has partly reversed course as the markets are swirling with speculation that the IMF is about to announce a stepped-up aid package (yet again!) and the ECB’s Trichet (“Mr. Euro” himself) is set to make a trip to Berlin to meet with German parliamentarians today. (In the U.S., the huge rally in Treasuries has subsided too as the bond market braces for $42 billion of fresh 5-year T-notes today). JGBs have rallied all the way to four-month lows, in terms of yield, to 1.28% — talk about a switch to defense (not to mention a slap in the face to the conventional wisdom that JGBs are an accident waiting to happen)

 
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Jim Grant Takes On David Rosenberg And The Bond Bulls, Warns The Fed Chairman: "Watch Your Back Ben Bernanke, Cycles Turn"





In one of the most erudite, intelligent, and insightful conversations on the Bond bull/bear debate, David Rosenberg and Jim Grant go all out at each other, trading blows in this "Great Debate" which is a must see by all. As we pointed out yesterday, Grant is very bearish on bonds, and in a self-made prospectus has decided to downgrade the US, since the rating agencies, which have long been thoroughly incompetent, corrupt and afraid to disturb the status quo, will not do so until it is too late. Jim's point is simple: you can't resolve massive debt with more debt, and says Treasuries, which he calls "certificates of confiscation" are a surefire way to lose one's money. He points to the record supply of US Treasuries, makes fun of the SEC (who doesn't), and in a stunning move, cautions the Fed Chairman, whose ongoing dollar debasement, was once considered treason by the US. His conclusion: "watch your back, Ben Bernanke. Cycles turn" could not have come at a more opportune time. As a contrarian, Rosenberg discusses the McKinsey report looking at sovereign debt, and the Reinhart and Rogoff studies on debt default and highlights that there is a major disconnect between theoretical applications of sovereign default models and practice: in essence the US is still deleveraging as private debt is decreasing and public debt is surging but to a slower degree. In essence, David claims, the second largest monthly debt issuance in March of $333 billion is merely a side effect of ongoing deleveraging, which is a leading and/or coincident indicator of deflation: an environment in which the long bond thrives (Japan is a good reference point).

 
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David Rosenberg And A Few Good Economic Observations: "Can You Handle The Truth?" His 2010 "Outlook"





Rosie doing what he does best: staking a lot by going against the consensus... Again

 
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David Rosenberg's 2010 Outlook "The Recession Is Really A Depression"





Typical of a post-bubble credit collapse, I see the range of outcomes in the financial markets and the economy to be extremely wide. But one conclusion I think we can agree on in this light is the need to maintain defensive strategies and minimize volatility and downside risks as well as to focus on where the secular fundamentals are positive such as in fixed-income and in equity sectors that lever off the commodity sector, under the proviso that the “experts” are correct on this particular forecast — that China and India remain the global growth leaders. - David Rosenberg

 
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David Rosenberg: This Is How We Get To $2,750 Gold





"If the USA were to go back to a 40% ratio of gold reserves to money supply (using the monetary base), where it was a century ago when the Fed was first created, from 17% currently, that would equate to three years’ supply of bullion, and alone take the gold price up to $2,750/ounce, based again on our research on price sensitivities to central bank buying activity." - David Rosenberg

 
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Meet The Latest Gold Bull: David Rosenberg?





We have recently stated that it is our belief that at this point any excess liquidity pumped into the system (see the prior report from Goldman on the debt ceiling, in which the investment bank presents some ideas on how the Treasury (never mind the Fed) can increase liquidity in the market by reducingobligations until such time as (if) the Congress votes to raise the debt cap) will likely go to chase n ot so much returns in credit or equity markets, but directly to appreciate the price of gold. Reading through Rosie's Breakfast with Dave piece from earlier, leads us to believe that the strategist may have jumped on the dollar bull bandwagon.

 
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David Rosenberg's Special Report





While we disagree that Rosenberg has anything to defend against, be it strategy critics or vapid iconoclasts who mimic whatever they overhear during dinner conversations, the report below is a must read for those unacquainted with David Rosenberg's work, who would like to catch up to the key issues that one of the best economists discusses on a day to day basis.

 
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David Rosenberg: This Is Your Last Chance





The growing divergence between lower 10 year Treasury yields and higher equity prices continues.

 
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David Rosenberg On Today's Straight Line Ramp To 1,000





"The government has its hands in 40% of the economy and when public sector officials can influence how banks can value their assets, how mortgage servicers should be doing their business, who shall fail in the financial industry and who shall not; and when we have a central bank that is not just the lender but the market of last resort, even for RVs, and a government willing to run up its deficit to levels that would have made FDR blush, then perhaps we can end up seeing a recovery occur sooner than we had thought."

 
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David Rosenberg, Shockingly, Realistic





David Rosenberg on the mother of all jobless recoveries

 
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David Rosenberg: "600-840 On The S&P"





"David Rosenberg can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity or remorse... and he will absolutely not stop. Ever! Until all the baseless propaganda is dead."

On a day when the U.S. citizenry takes it easy, grilling, drinking and generally doing what it is good at - being lazy, hoping that things will get better, the economic terminator who recently moved to Canada, provides a steady stream of ammunition in the fight with ignorance and propaganda. Rosenberg's morning notes from this morning are a treat.

 
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David Rosenberg: "600-840 On The S&P"





"David Rosenberg can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity or remorse... and he will absolutely not stop. Ever! Until all the baseless propaganda is dead."

On a day when the U.S. citizenry takes it easy, grilling, drinking and generally doing what it is good at - being lazy, hoping that things will get better, the economic terminator who recently moved to Canada, provides a steady stream of ammunition in the fight with ignorance and propaganda. Rosenberg's morning notes from this morning are a treat.

 
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Goodbye David Rosenberg





One of the few sane voices in the desert has left the (Merrill Lynch) building. David Rosenberg, on his way out, leaves everyone with an economist's dozen of rules to remember.

David, so long, and thanks for all the fish.

Rosie's rules to remember:

1) In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call.

2) Never be a slave to the data – they are no substitute for astute observation of the big picture.

 
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