David Rosenberg

Shock And Yawn: BofA's David Bianco Proves He Is "Smarter" Than Goldman By Raising His S&P EPS Estimates

Jan Hatzius' recent downgrade of the US economy, and the subsequent downgrade of the S&P by such formerly gruntled optimists as Goldman's David Kostin, has completely failed to register with permabullnut gallery. Case in point: the Bank of America strategist who was supposed to replace David Rosenberg, yet has become his own satirist caricature, David Bianco, has decided to go completely the other way, by actually rising not only his 2010 S&P estimates, but also 2011, and even, hilariously, 2012, this despite other such landed economist Ph.D's (from reputable institutions) as the San Fran Fed warning that there is a "significant" risk of a double dip in 2 years (yes, that's the Fed warning about a re-recession, not some rational, realistic, coherent human being), thus once again proving that his true worth is whatever CNBC pays him for his daily appearances in the Cheerleader Session block (which has now dropped out of Nielsen tracking due to complete lack of public interest in vapid propaganda). And for those who claim idiocy can not be captures in words, we disagree. To wit "Some dismiss our target because a deflationary shock could collapse current EPS. Others argue that EPS will be flat for years. We disagree; we think exceptionally low interest rates support real estate values and EPS will grow through foreign investment. The S&P has the best of the DM and EM world, low rates and healthy growth." Speechlessness ensues. What follows is propaganda so scary, it is good. If Bianco really believes this, we hope BofA provides free psychiatric sessions for its employees.

Vacation Thoughts From David Rosenberg

It appears those truly concerned with the proper functioning of the market can never truly sit still (especially when, as today confirms, it merely keeps on breaking little by little until it goes poof once again as not even one quadrillion of fake stuffed quotes can keep the market up any longer). Case in point: David Rosenberg, who should be on vacation, yet posted this typically delightful breakdown of the bullshit action in stocks when juxtaposed with the ever deteriorating reality.

Top 10 Most Read Posts In The Past Week

These are the Top 10 most read posts of the prior week:

  1. Marc Faber: Relax, This Will Hurt A Lot
  2. Ever Wondered How You Know You Are In A Depression? David Rosenberg Explains
  3. Guest Post: Gold Swap Signals the Roadmap Ahead
  4. "It's Not A Market, It's An HFT 'Crop Circle' Crime Scene" - Further Evidence Of Quote Stuffing Manipulation By HFT
  5. Jim Rickards Compares The Collapse Of The Roman Empire To The US, Concludes That We Are Far Worse Off
  6. LBMA Closes Off Public Access To Key Bullion Bank Trading Data
  7. S&P Priced In Gold: Comparison Between The Great Depression And Now
  8. Warren Pollock Warns Of Emergency Drug Shortage As EMTs Told To Go To "Alternate Protocols"
  9. China Calls Our Bluff: "The US is Insolvent and Faces Bankruptcy as a Pure Debtor Nation but [U.S.] Rating Agencies Still Give it High Rankings"
  10. Already Bought A 3D LCD In Anticipation Of QE "Instarefi" 1.999? You May Want To Consider A Refund

 

Ten Things That Would Turn Rosie Bullish, And A Realistic Read On Today's GDP Data

One of the world's most realistic people (which for some reason the permabulls take as an indication of extreme bearishness: which is fine - after all they themselves live in an imaginary world populated with market marking unicorns and benign computer programs), David Rosenberg has shared ten things that would make him bullish. Alas reading through these gives one the impression that Hades would first turn endothermic before any of these actually were to come true. And for some more practical views from Rosie, we also include his spot on interpretation of today's GDP data.

Econophile's picture

While I tremendously respect David Rosenberg, his article on Wednesday on inflation and deflation is a confusing mishmash of Keynesian ideas which are clearly wrong. But in the end, despite his struggle with concepts, he may have the market timing right.

David Rosenberg On What Happens When The Glorious 30 Year Great Bull Market In Bonds Comes To An End

From David Rosenberg's Wednesday letter: "The primary purpose of this comment is to suggest what things may look like when the Great Bull Market in Bonds, which began in 1981 with 30-year Treasury Bonds yielding 15.25%, finally comes to its glorious end. For starters, I think it is safe to say that the bull market in bonds will end reasonably close to the point in time that inflation (or deflation) bottoms. This is because we have determined that by far the major economic factor that correlates consistently with the direction of market-determined interest rates, at least for long term Treasury Bonds, is CPI Inflation (headline and core)...So what will be the cause of the next secular uptrend in inflation or hyperinflationary shock? It pays to look back at history. Prior to the inflation of the 1970s-early 1980s, periods of very high inflation were primarily associated with war. Increased credit demands to fund the war effort combined with the drop in productivity that goes along with blowing everything up is an inflationary stew." Alas, never before in the history of US society have we been at the point when noted economists, financiers, and socialites so frequently and openly compare the fate of our society to that of the Roman empire in its last days, when the Roman emperors, oblivious of personal harm, would debase the currency on a daily basis, and hike taxes, with the end result being the collapse of the empire itself. As we will demonstrate shortly, we ourselves may be getting quite close. And in those uncharted waters of the global economy and, in fact, civilization as a whole, where the central bankers fight for the very survival of the status quo on a daily basis, we are confident that prudence on long bond and inflation rates will be first to be jettisoned as the kleptocratic oligarchy fights to avoid the pitchforks and guillotines for at least one more day.

David Rosenberg Looks At The Sugar High Light... And Picks The Dark

Whereas Alphaville presents several statutory observations by David Rosenberg as to a variety of reasons over which one "could" be bullishly inclined based on a goal seeked read of the data (if one so chose), his daily letter is once again capped with yet another bearish summation: the bad news more than drowns out all the positivity, even if that means that another double dip is practically priced in.

Q&A With David Rosenberg: The Bearish Outlook

The WSJ's Greg Zuckerman has published a Q&A with one of the world's biggest deflationists (who nonetheless admits that once QE 2 begins all bets are off): David Rosenberg. Here is how Rosie sees the world of finance over next 2 years, and provdes more color on his currently favorite investment strategy (aside from bonds): SIRP (Safety and Income at a Reasonable Price... and in keeping with acronyms RIP GARP).

ECRI Plunges At 9.8% Rate, Double Dip Recession Virtually Assured

The ECRI Leading Economic Index just dropped to a fresh reading of 120.6 (flat from a previously revised 121.5 as the Columbia profs scramble to create at least a neutral inflection point): this is now a -9.8 drop, and based on empirical evidence presented previously by David Rosenberg, and also confirming all the macro economic data seen in the past two months, virtually assures that the US economy is now fully in a double dip recession scenario."It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three month lag. Keep your eye on the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession … only 100% of the time (42 years of data)." We are there.

Dick Bove Says Chance Of Double Dip Is Now 40-60%, Butchers JPM Earnings And Jamie Dimon

Something is rotten in the state of Rochdale. One of the most bullish banking analysts ever, Dick Bove, just crucified not only JP Morgan's earnings report, but also said Jamie Dimon "missed it completely on housing", and lastly, has turned extremely bearish on the overall economy, saying there is a 40-60% chance for a double dip, which at last check is probably more bearish than David Rosenberg. Bove throws up all over JPM "good" results, stating it is all a function of loan loss reductions, which the bank is in no way entitled to take at this point, when there is so much negative macro data piling up. As NPLs are likely to continue deteriorating in the future, should the economy weaken further, JPM would have to not only replenish existing accounting gimmicks such as boosting Net Income via balance sheet trickery, but to put even more cash to preserve a viable capitalization ratio. As Bove is the quintessential contrarian indicator, we are preparing for a month long sabbatical to a Buddhist monastery in Tibet to thoroughly reevaluate our perspectives on the universe.

For Those Still Clinging To Hope, Here Is David Rosenberg: "This Is The Weakest Post-Recession Recovery On Record"

To all those fewer and fewer optimists who believe the economy may avoid a double dip (or alternatively suffer the realization it never really got out of the depression in the first place), David Rosenberg provides a glimpse just how tenuous the so-called recovery has been, even despite the unprecedented attempts by everyone at the top to shepherd the economy into growth at any cost, and the daily reminder from Ben Bernanke that risk is dead and the Fed will never let capital markets drop again. As for the future, Rosie asks the logical question: how is it that earnings are expected to grow by 20% in 2011, when it is becoming increasingly obvious that GDP growth next year will be negative?