Morgan Stanley

Much has been made of equity inflows this week (though we note a significant outflow from high-yield bond funds - just as risk-on in its nature) and once again the money-on-the-sidelines fallacy is hawked at every opportunity. Two critical aspects are important to get past this 'fact' as some positive driver. First, money does not 'enter' the market, it is swapped (e.g. Person A's cash is used to buy shares from Person B; after the transaction the roles are swapped with Person B holding cash on the sidelines and Person A holding shares); and secondly, as Morgan Stanley's Gerard Minack notes, despite all the disclaimers – retail flows assume that past performance is a good guide to future outcomes. Consequently money tends to flow to investments that have done well, rather than investments that will do well.

Confirming what we explained recently, Morgan Stanley explains that among its equity long-short fund activity, the short activity (the net of shorts added and shorts covered) reached a minus-2 z-score indicating massive covering over the past 20 days. The last 3 times this occurred were April 2010 (S&P then fell 13% in 8 days), July 2011 (S&P then fell 19% in 23 days), and Oct 2011 (S&P then fell 10.5% in 20 days). Across sectors, Consumer Discretionary has been the most covered over the past week and month. Due to heavy covering, Discretionary short activity fell below a minus-3 z?score as of yesterday (now the highest long/short ratio of all sectors). It is worth keeping in mind, MS add, that historically speaking, the sector with the highest long/short ratio has often gone on to underperform over the following 6?12 months. This covering has driven median net leverage up to 64% (its 97th percentile of post crisis levels). Money-on-the-sidelines!! not so much... Massive short-covering rally - yes...

With Paulson's star long gone down, there are few remaining "new generation" hedge fund wunderkinds, especially in a world in which the best performing hedge fund is Federal Reserve Capital LLC - Onshore Fund. One among them is Third Point's Dan Loeb, who continues to be one of the best performing hedge fund managers for the 4th year in a row. He just filed his Q1 13F, amounting to $5.3 billion in disclosed long equity positions, which are summarized below. Of note are the following changes:

• New stakes in Virgin Media ($538MM), Tiffany ($188MM), Anadarko ($105MM), Thermo Fisher ($99MM), Cabot Oil and Gas ($84MM), Hess ($72MM) and others. Some of these overlap with the initiations of David Tepper and David Einhorn especially Hess: did some "idea dinners" take place in Q1 we were not aware of?
• Fully exited stakes in Tesoro, Morgan Stanley, Nexen, Symantec, Herbalife, Illumina, Coke, PVH, Abbott Labs and others.
• Reduced positions in Yahoo, AIG, New Corp, Murphy Oil, Delphi, Lyondell and others
• Added to stakes in International Paper, Abbvie, Dollar General, Constellation, and Ariad

Several moments ago, TSLA (hardly) surprised the world when it filed an open-ended S-3 (Shelf) statement, as many had expected it was only a matter of time before the company used the recent surge in its stock price to sell shares. Then, a few moments later, TSLA once again (hardly) surprised the world when it announced a joint $450 million convertible bond and 2.7 million share common stock offering. And because a dilution is not a dilution if the founder is participating in the common offering (buying his own equity at an unprecedented price to "anchor" it as a benchmark- sure why not - after all he is making much on all the other equity he has in the firm that he is not buying, as a result), the stock is trading up after hours.

As the global economic slump continues central bankers, such as Mario Draghi, and politicians have vowed “to do whatever it takes” to get economies back on track. Such policies while having near term benefits are considered extremely risky in the longer run by many commentators as they could beckon runaway inflation or stagflation, with ruinous results.

Shinzo Abe unleashed his plan with the blessing of the Bank of Japan to begin aggressive government bond purchases. This has led to a massive growth of 60% on the Nikkei and is deflating the yen and boosting their exports.

With another listless macro day in the offing, the main event was the previously mentioned Bank of Korea 25 bps rate cut, which coming at a time when everyone else in the world is easing was not too surprising, but was somewhat unexpected in light of persistent inflationary pressures. Either way, the gauntlet at Abenomics has been thrown and any temporary Japanese Yen-driven export gains will likely not persist as it is the quality of products perception (sorry 20th century Toshiba and Sony), that is the primary determinant of end demand, not transitory, FX-driven prices. And now that Korea is set on once again matching Japan in competitiveness, the final piece of the Abenomics unwind puzzle has finally clicked into place.  Elsewhere overnight, China reported consumer price inflation increasing by 2.4%, on expectations of a 2.3% rise, driven by a 4% jump in food costs: hardly the thing of Politburo dreams. Or perhaps the PBOC can just print more pigs, soy and birdflu-free chickens? On the other hand, PPI dropped 2.6% in April, on estimates of a 2.3% decline, as China telegraphs it has the capacity, if needed, to stimulate the economy. This is ironic considering its inflation pressures are externally-driven, and come from the Fed and the BOJ, and soon the BOE and ECB. And thus its economy stagnates while prices are driven higher by hot money flows. What to do?

According to the media hype, stocks are never expensive; but if you care a little about the actual price you are paying for stocks, perhaps the following two charts will at least raise a doubt about chasing this fun-and-games. The prospective P/E on both US and non-US equities are now at the top of the post crash range. Multiple-expansion has driven the rally in large part on the basis that central banks have removed the downside tail to investing but at these valuations (and with the expectations that are still priced in for H2 2013 earnings - up 14% vs up 4% in H1) surely caution is warranted.

• U.S. Bulks Up to Combat Iran (WSJ)
• Taking sides in Syria is hard choice for Israel (Reuters)
• Gold Traders Most Bearish in Three Years After Drop (BBG)
• It's a Hard Job Predicting Payrolls Number  (WSJ)
• EU economies to breach deficit limits as economic picture darkens (FT)
• IBM Says U.S. Justice Investigating Bribery Allegations (BBG)
• At Texas fertilizer plant, a history of theft, tampering (Reuters)
• SAC Sets Plan to Dock Pay in Cases of Wrongdoing (WSJ) - "in case of"?
• EU to propose duties on Chinese solar panels (Reuters)
• Billionaire Kaiser Exploiting Charity Loophole With Boats (BBG)
• SEC Zeroing In on 'Prime' Funds (WSJ)
• Apple Avoids $9.2 Billion in Taxes With Debt Deal (BBG)
• China April official services PMI at 54.5 vs 55.6 in March (Reuters)

There is not one single example in history in which QE has successfully created jobs. The UK has engaged in QE equal to over 20% of its GDP and hasn’t seen a real recovery in employment. Similarly, Japan has employed QE equal to nearly 25% of its GDP and GDP growth continues to slow while unemployment stays elevated.

The Fed may or may not be able to afford schizophrenia regarding the future of its monetary decisions (for now), but the ECB, in charge of a continent mired deep in depression, does not have that luxury. While consensus overwhelmingly expects a 25 bps cut in the main refinancing rate, some have warned that should the ECB not engage in such a cut, the EUR will tumble as the short covering squeeze ends with a thud. What exactly are the individual banks expecting? The following bulletin from Bloomberg summarizes it all.

• Physical demand up: U.S. Mint Sales of Gold Coins Jump to Highest in Three Years (BBG)
• Paper demand down: Gold ETP Holdings Cap Record Drop as $17.9 Billion Wiped Out (BBG)
• It's May 1 not April 1: Fed Seen Slowing Stimulus With QE Cut by End of This Year (BBG)
• Another great step for Abenomics: Sony leadership to forgo bonuses after broken promise on profits (FT)
• High-Speed Traders Exploit Loophole (WSJ)
• It's peanut Breaburn jelly time: How Google UK clouds its tax liabilities (Reuters)
• Frowny face day at the Mark Zandi household: Obama Said to Choose Watt to Lead Fannie Mae Regulator (BBG)
• Russia’s 20 Biggest Billionaires Keep Riches From Putin (BBG)
• China Affair With Cheap Diamonds Heats Mass Market (BBG)
• China's emotional ties to North Korea run deep in border city (Reuters)
• US companies must use cash piles for capex (FT) ... and yet they aren't. Tax anyone who doesn't spend for CapEx!
• Chinese Way of Doing Business: In Cash We Trust (NYT)

• Euro-Area Unemployment Increases to Record 12.1% Amid Recession (BBG)
• Fed faces calls for radical reform (FT) - Has Jamie Dimon approved of this message? No? Carry on then
• CEO Pay 1,795-to-1 Multiple of Wages Skirts U.S. Law (BBG)
• Ex-UBS Executive Convicted of Paid Sex With Underage Girl (BBG)
• Six months after Sandy, New York fuel supply chain still vulnerable (Reuters)
• Older, richer shoppers lead Japan’s surge in consumer spending (FT)
• Sharp euro zone inflation fall, joblessness point to ECB rate cut (G&M)
• Gold Rush From Dubai to Turkey Saps Supply as Premiums Jump (BBG)
• Japan Industrial Output, Retail Sales Disappoint (MW)
• Gunmen surround Libyan justice ministry (Reuters)
• Insider-Trading Probe Trains Lens on Boards (WSJ)
• Best Buy exits Europe (WSJ)
• Banker Roommates Follow Zuckerberg Not Blankfein With IvyConnect (BBG)

Think the revolving door for Morgan Stanley's diaspora of clutch interests goes only from the private sector outward, with the recent appointment of MS' darling Mary Jo White (who will promptly recuse herself in virtually all major cases involved her former clients at Debevoise for years to come) to head the SEC? Think again. Moments ago, Reuters reported that according to a memo sent internally today, Morgan Stanley has hired Michele Davis, "a public relations official and policy director who helped shape the Treasury Department's strategy during the financial crisis, to become global head of corporate affairs, according to a bank memo sent on Monday."

• Gold Bears Defy Rally as Goldman Closes Short Wager (BBG)
• Still stuck on central-bank life support (Reuters)
• Ebbing Inflation Means More Easy Money (BBG)
• So much for socialist wealth redistribution then? François Hollande to woo French business with tax cut (FT)
• Billionaires Flee Havens as Trillions Pursued Offshore (BBG)
• Companies Feel Pinch on Sales in Europe (WSJ)
• Brussels plan will ‘kill off’ money funds (FT)
• Danes as Most-Indebted in World Resist Credit (BBG)
• Syria says prime minister survives Damascus bomb attack (Reuters)
• Syria: Al-Qaeda's battle for control of Assad's chemical weapons plant (Telegraph)
• Nokia Betting on $20 Handset as It Loses Ground on IPhone (BBG)
• Rapid rise of chat apps slims texting cash cow for mobile groups (FT)
• Calgary bitcoin exchange fighting bank backlash in Canada (Calgary Herald)

Now that the absolutely irrelevant debate over the applicability of the 90% debt/GDP Reinhart and Rogoff hard cutoff for sovereign growth is supposedly over due to an excel mistake of the type that JPMorgan did at least once to misrepresent its VaR both internally and to public shareholders (which to a large group of supposedly people is equivalent to supporting the notion that a record debt global conflagration can only be resolved with even more debt), perhaps the debate can shift to another question: why despite all the bickering and complaints, Europe never actually engaged in austerity, in spending or debt cuts, and that the primary reason the people's plight in the periphery worsened in the past three years is nothing more or less than gross political and governing incompetence?