• Bruce Krasting
    12/18/2014 - 21:42
      The one thing that Jordan can't do in this war is appear to be weak.

Morgan Stanley

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Emerging Markets In Danger





There are some signs of trouble in emerging markets. And the money at risk now is bigger than ever.

 
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Frontrunning: December 18





  • Swiss National Bank Starts Negative Interest Rate of 0.25% to Stave Off Inflows (BBG)
  • Putin Strikes Uncompromising Stance Over Crisis Gripping Russia (BBG)
  • Sony cancels North Korea movie in apparent win for Pyongyang hackers (Reuters)
  • U.S. Said Set to Blame North Korea for Sony Cyber Attack (BBG)
  • China’s Short-Term Borrowing Costs Surge as Demand for Money Grows (WSJ)
  • Russia Currency Market Bends But Doesn’t Break (BBG)
  • Jeb Bush Puts Pressure on Chris Christie for 2016 (WSJ)
  • From joy to outrage, Florida's Cuban-Americans greet new U.S. policy (Reuters)
  • Russians Quit London Luxury Homes as Only Super-Rich Stay (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: December 16





  • Ruble Sinks to 80 a Dollar Defying Surprise Russia Rate Increase (BBG)
  • Oil slumps near $59 for first time since 2009 on oversupply (Reuters)
  • Oil sinks, Russian moves fail to quell nerves (Reuters)
  • Fed Seen Looking Past Low Inflation to Drop ‘Considerable Time (BBG)
  • Students Among Dead as Pakistan Gunmen Kill 126 at Army School (BBG)
  • Repsol to buy Talisman Energy for $13 billion (Reuters)
  • Indonesia’s Rupiah Erases Decline After Central Bank Intervenes (BBG)
  • Anti-Islam Rally Grows as Immigrant Backlash Hits Europe (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia is playing chicken with its oil (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: December 15





  • Sydney Siege Sparks Muslim Call for Calm Amid Backlash Fear (BBG)
  • Oil Spilling Over Into Central Bank Policy as Fed Enters Fray (BBG)
  • Biggest LBO of 2014: BC Partners to acquire PetSmart for $8.7 billion (Reuters)
  • Tremble algos: the SEC has hired... "QUANTS" (WSJ)
  • When the bubble just isn't bubbly enough: There’s $1.7 Trillion Locked Out of China’s Stock Rally (BBG)
  • Oil price slide roils emerging markets, yen rises (Reuters) - may want to hit F5 on that
  • Libya Imposes Force Majeure on 2 Oil Ports After Clashes (BBG) ... and will resume production in days
  • Amid Crisis, Pimco Steadies Itself (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: December 12





  • Oil slide hits European stocks, safe-haven assets sought (Reuters)
  • IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast for 4th Time in Five Months (BBG)
  • Cue constant pro-Abe propaganda out of Japan: Japan’s Secrecy Law Takes Effect as Abe Seeks Fair Vote Coverage (BBG)
  • As if it has a choice: Japan’s GPIF Bets on Abenomics-Driven Recovery (WSJ)
  • Heather Capital: How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared (WSJ)
  • Senate Panel Votes to Authorize U.S. War on Islamic State (BBG)
  • Japan’s 28 IPOs in 11 Days Give Abe a Lift as Startups Boom (BBG)
  • U.S. authorities face new fallout from insider trading ruling (Reuters)
  • Greek Stock Rout Means ASE Is 2014 Worst After Russia (BBG)
 
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Crude Drops, Yields Slump, Futures Tumble





Anyone who was hoping the market would rebound on last-minute news that the US government has gotten funding for another 9 months, will be disappointed this morning, when futures are finally starting to notice the relentless decline in crude, and with Brent down another 1% as of this writing following yet another cut in the forecast of Global oil demand by the IEA (the 4th in the last 5 months) and with Chinese industrial production also missing estimates (recall that the Chinese slow-motion hard landing has been said by many to be the primary catalyst for the crude collapse) which however pushed Chinese stocks higher on hopes of even more stimulus, the S&P is trading lower by some 14 points, the 10 Year is in the red zone at 2.12%, and the USDJPY is close to session lows. In short: Kevin Henry's "ETF" desk at the NY Fed will have its work cut out to generate one of the now traditional pre-weekend feel good, boost confidence stock market ramps.

 
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Frontrunning: December 11





  • Shale operaters Goodrich, Oasis Petroleum cut spending for 2015 as oil slides (Reuters)
  • Greece to hold elections in January if president vote fails (Reuters)
  • Norway’s Shock Rate Cut Drives Krone to Lowest Since 2009 (BBG)
  • ‘Severe Downturn’ Threatening Norway, Central Bank Governor Says (BBG)
  • Russia’s Fifth Rate Increase Fails to Halt Ruble Slide to Record (BBG)
  • SNB Says Deflation Risks Increased as Franc Cap Maintained (BBG)
  • China eases bank lending restrictions, PBOC targets 10 trillion yuan in loans for 2014 (Reuters)
  • Mobius Says China’s Bull Market Is Just Getting Started (BBG)
  • How Wal-Mart Made Its Crumbling China Business Look So Good for So Long (BBG)
 
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FX Traders Are "Fighting The PBOC" As Yuan Tumbles





For the first time in almost 3 years, the 'market' is fighting the PBOC in the FX markets. The last month has seen USDCNY rise almost 9 handles to as high as 6.21 (the weakest CNY in 5 months). At the same time, the PBOC's official 'fix' of CNY has been strengthened to below 6.12 (the strongest CNY in 9-months) diverging by the most in six months from the market. "The market is staying cautious and even bearish on the China macro outlook," notes Morgan Stanley, but as HSBC explains, "China doesn't want to join the currency wars [and wants to stall any speculation on trend] and that explains the fix movement." Simply put, markets doubt the PBOC and believe it will eventually be dragged into the currency war or just fundamentally deteriorate enough to warrant capital flight.

 
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For Anyone That Still Believes Collapsing Oil Prices Are Good For The Economy





Are much lower oil prices good news for the U.S. economy?  Only if you like collapsing capital expenditures, rising unemployment and a potential financial implosion on Wall Street.

 
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Oil Prices Collapse To New Cycle Lows, Canada Heavy Tumbles Under $50





The crude carnage continued overnight with oil prices across the entire complex crashing through support to new cycle lows. Despite recent strategic reservce demand in China, the world's oil glut continues as global growth expectations plunge leaving WTI trading as low as $64.10, Brent $66.77 (narrowing the Brent-WTI spread to $2.68 from $3.23 on Friday), and most stunning of all, Canada Heavy as low as $49.24. Speculators and money managers appear to be BTFD as they increased net long positions last week (amid the price slump) but comments from Kuwait Petroleum's CEO and Iran officials suggest 'lower for longer' on prices will be the norm. As Morgan Stanley notes, "with OPEC on the sidelines, oil prices face their greatest threat since 2009 and appear on track for an extremely volatile 2015"

 
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Frontrunning: December 8





  • Welcome to the recovery:
    • Euro zone warning hits stocks, currency as oil plumbs depths (Reuters)
    • Japan GDP Worse Than Initially Reported (WSJ)
    • China trade data well below expectations (BBC)
    • German industrial production frustrates forecasts (FT)
  • Oil Extends Retreat With European Stocks as Dollar Gains (BBG)
  • California police, protesters clash again after 'chokehold' death (Reuters)
  • Ruble’s Rout Is Tale of Failed Threats, Missteps (BBG), not to be confused with "Yen's Rout Is Tale Of Keynesian Success, Prosperity"
  • Uber banned from operating in Indian capital after driver rape (Reuters)
 
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China Surges, Japan Closes Green On Horrible Econ Data; Oil Tumbles To Fresh 5 Year Lows





Without doubt, the most memorable line from the latest quarterly report by the BIS, one which shows how shocked even the central banks' central bank is with how perverted and broken the "market" has become is the following: "The highly abnormal is becoming uncomfortably normal.... There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine." Overnight, "markets" did all in their (central banks') power to justify the BIS' amazement, when first the Nikkei closed green following another shocker of Japanese econ data, when it was revealed that the quadruple-dip recession was even worse than expected, and then the Shanghai composite soaring over 3000 or up 2.8% for the session, following news of the worst trade data - whether completely fabricated or not - out of China in over half a year.

 
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When Goldman Writes The New York Fed's Press Releases, Then All Is Lost





Much has been said about Goldman's control over the most important Federal Reserve of all, that of New York, where the all important Markets Group is located, which does as the name implies, "influences" markets.And while it is very clear by now that nothing will change under the current corrupt and compromised executive, legislative and judicial system, because at the end of the day, Goldman has indirect control over all three branches of government , here is the one anecdote which, in a non banana republic, would be the straw that finally broke the camel's back.

 
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What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Number





  • JP Morgan 200K
  • Goldman Sachs 220K
  • Citigroup 225K
  • HSBC 230K
  • UBS 230K
  • Credit Suisse 235K
  • Morgan Stanley 235K
  • Deutsche Bank 250K
 
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Frontrunning: December 5





  • Marchers again swarm New York to protest death at hands of police (Reuters)
  • N.Y. Police Chokehold Evidence to Stay Secret as Protests Spread (BBG)
  • Obama to announce choice of Ash Carter for defense chief Friday: White House (Reuters)
  • Boehner vows to avoid government shutdown with help from Democrats (Reuters)
  • Brent Heads for 5-Year Low as Saudi Discounts Spur Competition (BBG)
  • Will Cheap Oil Lead to Big Mergers? (WSJ)
  • Bank of Russia Ramps Up Ruble Support (WSJ)
  • China Bad-Loan Level Seen Understated After Economy Slows (BBG)
  • Uber Snags $41 Billion Valuation (WSJ)
 
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