Morgan Stanley

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"Few Are Yet Willing To Admit The Harsh Reality..."





A multi-decade Credit Bubble is coming to an end. The past seven years has amounted to an incredible blow-off top and the ongoing worldwide collapse in financial stocks provides powerful support for the bursting global Bubble thesis. Few are yet willing to accept the harsh reality that the world has sunk back into crisis as mal-investment, over-investment and associated wealth destruction remain largely concealed so long as financial asset inflation persists. This is true as well for wealth redistribution. The unfolding adjustment process will deflate asset prices so as to converge more closely with deteriorating underlying economic fundamentals.

 
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Morgan Stanley: "We Struggle To Remember When Bearish Sentiment Was As Widespread As Today"





"... the growing perception that central banks are moving away from QE-style programmes to negative interest rates is less supportive for equities, in our opinion. With little evidence so far that negative rates boost aggregate economic activity, the risk is that this policy tool increasingly resembles a more blatant form of 'beggar thy neighbour' currency devaluation. A shift towards a more nationalistic and perhaps less coordinated global policy response could signal a quickening in the pace of fiat currency debasement and augurs badly for risk appetite, in our view."

 
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P2P Cracks Start To Show As LendingClub Write-Offs Double Forecasts





“Their business is to take data and use that to underwrite risk. If you’re an investor in the loans on the platform, this creates a concern around that underwriting model.”

 
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Frontrunning: February 5





  • January Jobs Report Closely Watched for Momentum, Wages (WSJ)
  • Oil prices steady, weak fundamentals weigh after volatile week (Reuters)
  • How Much Global Oil Output Halted Due to Low Prices? Just 0.1% (BBG)
  • Congress Tweet 'Unfortunate,' Lawyer Says as Shkreli Goes Online (BBG)
  • Syrians Flee Aleppo to Escape Damascus Offensive Against Rebels (WSJ)
  • Dollar Set for Biggest Weekly Loss Since 2009 Before Jobs Data (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: February 4





  • EU Slashes 2016 Inflation Forecast to 0.5% as Growth Seen Slower (BBG)
  • Bank of England cuts UK growth forecasts (FT)
  • Investors Cast Wary Eye on Fed Rate Increases (WSJ)
  • U.N. halts Syria talks as government closes in on Aleppo (Reuters)
  • Credit Suisse Drops as Investment Bank Slump Deepens Losses (BBG)
  • Six OPEC states ready for emergency meeting with non-OPEC members — Venezuela's minister (TASS)
 
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Futures Flat As Dollar Weakness Persists, Crude Rally Fizzles





After yesterday's torrid, chaotic moves in the market, where an initial drop in stocks was quickly pared and led to a surge into the close after a weaker dollar on the heels of even more disappointing US data and Bill Dudley's "serious consequences" speech sent oil soaring and put the "Fed Relent" scenario squarely back on the table, overnight we have seen more global equity strength on the back of a weaker dollar, even if said weakness hurt Kuroda's post-NIRP world and the Nikkei erased virtually all losses since last Friday's surprising negative rate announcement. Oil and metals also rose piggybacking on the continued dollar weakness as the word's most crowded trade was suddenly shaken out.

 
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BoJ Preview: "The Need For A Kuroda Bazooka Is Growing"





With The Fed definitely off the table, China promising nothing but daily liquidity drips, and Europe unable to do anything but jawbone, the world's bullish equity market investors are anxiously trawling for a central bank to save the world. Tonight's BoJ meeting could well be it - though judging by their past epic failures - it will be anything but successful as QE23 looms in Japan. “The need for a Kuroda bazooka is increasing,” said Yuji Shimanaka, an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. “This is decision time for Kuroda” as additional stimulus can stop the trend of yen gains and falling stocks.

 
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How The Current Sell-Off Stacks Up To All Previous Bear Markets





Based on 43 large sell-offs in the world's major equity markets, Morgan Stanley gauges how the current market slide compares to bear markets and bull corrections through history. While they have tended to last about 190 business days, with drawdowns around 30%, the current environment is considerably weaker than the typical bear market beginning...

 
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Oil Slides Dragging Global Stocks, US Futures Lower, After Saudi Aramco Supply Comments





After the biggest two-day surge in oil in seven years, early in the overnight session both Brent and WTI continued their run for a third day, entering a bull market, 20% up from recent lows hit just last week (still 15% down on the year) when Saudi Arabia spoiled the momentum party after  the world’s biggest crude exporter said it’s keeping up investments in energy projects while diesel consumption in China dropped for a fourth consecutive month, signaling an industrial slowdown. And thanks to the near record correlation between equities and oil, global stocks and US equity index futures initially rose only to slide following the Saudi comments.

 
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"What To Make Of It All?" - A Gloomy Preview Of What's Next In Global Macro From Morgan Stanley





So what is holding back risk appetite? A major overhang remains the question of how China will manage its currency. CNY is near the lower end of a range that has existed since August, a range our economists expect to hold through mid-year. But keeping the currency stable is being challenged by USD strength, and makes it more difficult for China to ease policy to support growth. We think this issue, above all others, is the main macro dilemma facing markets in 2016.

 
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Bank (Un)earnings: Why FICC Is Shrinking And Will Continue To





We are told bank earnings and revenue are under pressure from a slew of “tough markets” but what makes those markets so untenable in the first place?

 
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"Investors Should Sell Any Bounce Back" Top Investors See More To Come





"You get the sense that there is a broader market issue here...Complacency about the risks of contagion from the weakest segments of high yield is reminiscent of sentiment regarding subprime debt in mid-2007."

 
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What The Big Banks Say About Their Energy Exposure





One thing is clear: banks are not only not telling the full story, but the story they are telling is compromised. Still one has to start somewhere with whatever data is publicly available, so courtesy of Reuters, here is a summary of what the big U.S. banks who have reported Q4 earnings so far, say about their energy exposure.

 
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