Morgan Stanley

Will Trump's Tax Plan Pass: Here Is The Complete Probability Matrix

With investors asking "what is the probability of the Trump tax deal getting done?" it turns out that is the wrong question. As Morgan Stanley shows, the outcome from Trump's tax proposal is not binary but rather leads to the following nine distinct possible results.

Wall Street Throws Up On US Steel's "Nightmare On Elm Street" Results

"If things are so bad during good times, 2Q-4Q is set to resemble a "Nightmare on Elm Street."Next move in U.S. steel industry fundamentals is lower, given scrap prices now in full-on correction mode, negative seasonality around the corner for U.S. steel mills, iron ore price declines, rising steel imports and correction in coking coal prices."

Corporate Debt To EBITDA Hits All Time High

"When using the aggregated data, both gross and net corporate debt/EBITDA are at or near record leverage levels, well above prior cycle peaks." - Morgan Stanley

European, US Stocks In Eerie Calm As French Vote Looms

Global markets were oddly calm on Friday, the last day of trading before the first round of France's closely fought presidential election, with European stocks posting modest declines ahead of Sunday's main event, Asian shares rising, and set for first weekly gain in the past month, while U.S. futures were unchanged.

Europe And S&P Futures Higher, Dollar Drops As OPEC Talks Oil Up

European stocks rose amid earnings beats, offsetting weakness in the energy sector and easing investor concerns ahead of the weekend’s French election. Asian shares and U.S. futures also rise. The dollar weakens against the euro and most crosses, while crude oil rebounds following renewed OPEC chatter of a production cut, this time with Saudi Arabia seemingly onboard.

Morgan Stanley Jumps After Beating Estimates On 96% Surge In Fixed Income Revenue

Following yesterday's surprising Goldman miss, traders were closely watching the results of its closest comp, Morgan Stanley this morning to determine if the Goldman FICC revenue disappointment was systemic or a one-off event. They were pleasantly surprised when MS beat on both the top and bottom line, as net income jumped 70% driven by a 96% surge in fixed income sales and trading revenue.

Japan's 10Y Yield Drops Below Zero Again: All Eyes On The BOJ

With every other asset class roundtripping the November election outcome, it was only a matter of time before Japan's 10Y JGB retraced the entire "reflationary" move from 0.0% to 0.1%. And, sure enough, after today's violent deflationary capitulation, moments ago Japan's JGB 0.1% of 2027 once again dipped back under 0%, sliding as low as -0.003% as deflation returns with a whimper.