Morgan Stanley

"Everything Is A Partial Reversal Of Yesterday" - Stocks, Dollar Rebound Following Trump Scare

European shares decline led by a plunge in Pearson shares, S&P futures were modestly in the green as Asian and EM stocks gained. The dollar rebounded against most major currencies after retreating 1.3% on Tuesday to the lowest in a month following Trump's "strong dollar" comments and halted a seven-day drop against the yen. "Everything is just a partial reversal of the price action yesterday," RBC Capital Markets currency strategist Adam Cole said.

Frontrunning: January 17

  • Theresa May pledges clean Brexit break (FT); May Pledges Vote on Brexit Taking U.K Out Of EU’s Single Market (BBG)
  • Donald Trump Warns on House Republican Tax Plan (WSJ)
  • Trump, Fed Headed for Clash Amid Dollar Surge, Economists Say (BBG)
  • China’s Xi Warns Against Trade War in Defense of Globalization (BBG)
  • Morgan Stanley Profit Rises on Surge in Bond-Trading Revenue (BBG)
  • Germany says NATO concerned about Trump 'obsolete' remark (Reuters)

Key Events In The Coming Week: Trump Inauguration, Davos, Theresa May, ECB, China GDP

The week ahead will be a busy one, with a plethora of events including the Davos shindig, where particular focus will be on Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first Chinese president to attend. China will also announce GDP on Friday, which also marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Tuesday brings Theresa May's long-awaited Brexit speech.

Why Morgan Stanley Thinks Stocks "Will Do Worse Under The New Administration"

"Returns will likely do worse under the new administration than under the departing one, and where exceptions to this may be. That statement is linked to a simple idea. Good market environments often involve a shift from economic despair to optimism, and a shift in psychology from ‘fear’ to ‘greed’. Both occurred over the last eight years, producing returns well above the long-run average."

As Wall Street Tries To Trade On Trump's Tweets, Problems Emerge

A problem has emerged as Wall Street scrambles to trade on Trump tweets: while HFT strategies can quickly identify that a stock was referenced in a tweet, isolating if the actual message is bullish, bearish or indifferent presents a major challenge.