FELS: QE SHOULD FOCUS ON CREDIT AND POTENTIALLY EQUITY BUYING
Diamond has a good thing going with Quorum: they get access to ample credit, especially for those applicants with weaker credit profiles. From a Diamond investor's perspective, it would be a shame if anything changed. The post credit-crisis strategy of focusing on esoteric lending opportunities like VOI (as well as taxi medallions, hearing aids and fertility treatments) to generate revenues and membership has run into both a broader slowdown in the consumer credit cycle as well as more specific problems, like an increasingly worried regulator.
For those who thought that the world's biggest company losing over $40 billion in market cap in an instant on disappointing Apple earnings, would have been sufficient to put a dent in US equity futures, we have some disappointing news: with just over 7 hours until the FOMC reveals its April statement, futures are practically unchanged, even though the Nasdaq appears set for an early bruising in the aftermath of what is becoming a disturbing quarter for tech companies. Instead of tech leading, however, the upside has once again come from the energy complex where moments ago WTI rose above $45 a barrel for the first time since November after yesterday's unexpected 1.07 million barrel API inventory drawdown.
As most Americans have resigned themselves to the fact that merit increases are a thing of the past, and yearly reviews will only yield a pat on the back and new goals for the upcoming year, life is still good in the corner suite. CEOs are still getting raises, but don't be alarmed, you'll feel that trickle down effect any minute now.
Drilled, uncompleted wells could return 500,000 barrels a day back to the market, according to Richard Westerdale, a director at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Energy Resources. The inventory of wells is known as the fracklog. “Once we start approaching $45 and above, the risk of a much sharper pullback starts to increase as a lot of shale becomes profitable again,” Angus Nicholson, an analyst at IG in Melbourne, said by phone. “It’ll bring more supply back into the market. This happened last year when a swathe of output hit the market after a price gain and subsequently led to oil dropping to record lows.”
While one can blame algos and "macros" for snapping up oil the commodity, as Morgan Stanley did recently, another question is who is buying energy stocks to a level that makes little sense from a forward P/E multiple. The answer may have been revealed earlier today in Bank of America's breakdown of what smart money investors were doing. While we already reported that for the 13th, record, consecutive week, hedge funds, institutions and private clients were unloading risk exposure, one other group of client were buying energy stocks in record amounts: Pensions.
Venezuela - home to the largest oil reserves in the world - will for the next 40 days experience a four-hour blackout every single day, and there are fears that the rationing could lead to unrest and trigger a decline in oil output at a time when the country is barely hanging on.
Will Algos Push Oil Back To $60? Morgan Stanley Begs You To "Forgive The Macros, They Know Not What They Do"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2016 11:58 -0400
“Close your eyes and buy” seems to be the mantra for now. While fundamentals don’t justify a cyclical recovery in oil yet, the market continues to move higher. The primary driving force has been macro funds, index money and CTAs. Technicals and momentum have only added to it, and there is a sense from some of investors that they need to buy for fear of missing out. Similar to 2015, we see a confirmation bias where any bullish data point is embraced outages, weekly US production, etc) and bearish data points are dismissed or spun as a buying opportunity.
Somehow, without the American public’s awareness, the U.S. government is on the hook to two failed companies for $445.6 billion dollars. And that may be just the tip of the iceberg of this story.
It's not just Halliburton ("What we are experiencing today is far beyond headwinds; it is unsustainable") and Intel (12,000 layoffs amid re-evaluation of programs) that are facing up to a new normal very different from expectations. As Avondale Asset Management notes, having poured over 100s of earnings transcripts, while most CEOs don’t see signs of an imminent downturn, the environment still feels a little fragile. It seems that almost everyone is on high alert for a macro curve-ball...
Tomorrow's ECB meeting "looks set to be sleepy" according to Saxo Bank's Mads Koefed as Draghi is largely cornered into confirmation he will do "whatever it takes" and some additional details on the corporate bond purchase plan. Most of the sell-side's research suggests the same, as Bloomberg notes, ECB will probably leave the door open for further cuts if needed; but any downside risk for the euro is seen limited, as Draghi stays on hold by reinforcing its dovish stance after the mix of easing measures announced in March with some defense of the efficiency of his policies after recent criticism by Germany.
As Adam Parker pointed out on Sunday, "'The main questions investors ask us today seem to be about the exterior appearance of the market and not fundamentals. “What is this price action telling you?” “What are other investors asking you about?” “How are other people positioned?” Or, “what’s the current sentiment?”" Here's why these are the only questions that matter.
Every day there is more confirmation that the casino is an exceedingly dangerous place and that exposure to the stock, bond and related markets is to be avoided at all hazards. In essence the whole shebang is based on institutionalized lying, meaning that prouncements of central bankers, Wall Street brokers and big company executives are a tissue of misdirection, obfuscation and outright deceit. And they are self-reinforcing, too.